2016 Republican Party presidential nomination
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| rowspan="2" style="text-align: center;width: 150px; border-bottom: solid 2px black; border-right: solid 2px black"|[[File:Mitt_Romney_by_Gage_Skidmore_7.jpg|80px]]<br/>'''[[Mitt Romney]]'''<br/>Age: {{Age|1947|03|12}}<br/>Former Governor of [[Massachusetts]] | | rowspan="2" style="text-align: center;width: 150px; border-bottom: solid 2px black; border-right: solid 2px black"|[[File:Mitt_Romney_by_Gage_Skidmore_7.jpg|80px]]<br/>'''[[Mitt Romney]]'''<br/>Age: {{Age|1947|03|12}}<br/>Former Governor of [[Massachusetts]] | ||
| − | |'''Advantages''': Effectively the "In Case of Emergency, Break Glass" candidate: if there is concern that the frontrunners are ''really'' inadequate as debate season approaches, expect fierce pressure by the RNC to draft him yet again.<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/upshot/why-2016-may-be-mitt-romneys-year.html?abt=0002&abg=0 Why 2016 May Be Mitt Romney’s Year], ''The New York Times''</ref> Would have another huge fundraising operation, and | + | |'''Advantages''': Effectively the "In Case of Emergency, Break Glass" candidate: if there is concern that the frontrunners are ''really'' inadequate as debate season approaches, expect fierce pressure by the RNC to draft him yet again.<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/upshot/why-2016-may-be-mitt-romneys-year.html?abt=0002&abg=0 Why 2016 May Be Mitt Romney’s Year], ''The New York Times''</ref> Would have another huge fundraising operation, and could threaten more [[swing state]]s if he promises to "fix" a [[ACA|health care plan inspired by him]] rather than "repeal" it. |
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|style="border-bottom: solid 2px black"|'''Disadvantages''': Everything that made him lose to [[Obama]] in 2012. The public was turned off by his stuffy demeanor, flip-flopping and out-of-touch statements about wealth in America, while the majority of conservatives were never comfortable with his past as a "Massachusetts moderate" and [[Mormon]] missionary. [[POTUS#Grover Cleveland (1885-1889, 1893-1897)|Only]] [[Richard Nixon|two]] politicians have successfully become POTUS after previously losing a general election, and in both cases conceded in squeakers, not by 4% of the popular vote.<ref>Ann Romney also lives with MS, which is an extra incentive for the family to not put up with crap for a third time.</ref> | |style="border-bottom: solid 2px black"|'''Disadvantages''': Everything that made him lose to [[Obama]] in 2012. The public was turned off by his stuffy demeanor, flip-flopping and out-of-touch statements about wealth in America, while the majority of conservatives were never comfortable with his past as a "Massachusetts moderate" and [[Mormon]] missionary. [[POTUS#Grover Cleveland (1885-1889, 1893-1897)|Only]] [[Richard Nixon|two]] politicians have successfully become POTUS after previously losing a general election, and in both cases conceded in squeakers, not by 4% of the popular vote.<ref>Ann Romney also lives with MS, which is an extra incentive for the family to not put up with crap for a third time.</ref> | ||
Revision as of 10:02, 20 November 2014
The Republican race to retake the White House after eight years on the sidelines will begin in 2015, culminating in the 1968 Democratic 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.
The GOP field will be the largest in decades, with nearly 30 names under consideration.[1]
Contents |
Confirmed running
May run
Jeb Bush Age: 62 Former Governor of Florida |
Advantages: |
| Disadvantages: The Bush name is not as popular a brand as it used to be. | |
Chris Christie Age: 52 Governor of New Jersey |
Advantages: Moderate on social issues. Competent handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Seems less driven by ideology than other Republicans, an asset that (as head of the Republican Governors' Association) helped the party pick up a bunch of northern states in the 2014 midterms. Post-2012 polling showed that he was the only Republican that could seriously compete with Hillary Clinton, so he was — until recently — treated by everyone as the presumptive nominee. Pleasingly plump. |
| Disadvantages: His straight-talker attitude has proven to be a double-edged sword, and not just in the sense of his condescension towards voters. It will be particularly difficult for him to weave away later from hardline stances he will need to take during the Republican primaries. They play hardball politics in New Jersey, but he hasn't been able to strike-out (ahem) the state's budget crisis.[2] Even if he escapes 'Bridgegate' charges and similar messes, he will be remembered as "the guy who fucked with your commute because he didn't like your politics." | |
Ted Cruz Age: 44 Junior Senator from Texas |
Advantages: He's entertaining and has great name recognition.[3] Beloved by the darkest depths of the Republican base, a favourite to win the Ames Iowa straw poll, and has more influence on party strategy than GOP bigwigs dare admit. Might get a boost from overseas voters. |
| Disadvantages: Oh... erm, nothing. Nothing at all. He'd be fine anywhere on the ticket.[4] Move along. | |
Rand Paul Age: 52 Junior Senator from Kentucky |
Advantages: Strongly identifies with the Tea Party anti-establishment. Lots of media attention. Relatively non-interventionist in foreign policy. Has criticized mandatory minimum sentences. |
| Disadvantages: A near-clone of his father, but unlike Ron has a scary chance to hijack the nomination. Styles himself as a hawk, yet neocons have seen through the ruse for a long time (e.g. his drone fillibuster and strange beliefs on foreign aid to Israel). Big business balks at his opposition to corporate subsidies, literally running away from DREAMers,[5] and being one of the faces of the government shutdown beside Cruz. He drinks the Religious Right's Kool-Aid, but they won't like his libertarian solutions. Likely to attract all of his dad's crackpot followers, and has a goldmine of brain-dead gaffes and skeletons in the closet. In other words, political harakiri. | |
Mitt Romney Age: 68 Former Governor of Massachusetts |
Advantages: Effectively the "In Case of Emergency, Break Glass" candidate: if there is concern that the frontrunners are really inadequate as debate season approaches, expect fierce pressure by the RNC to draft him yet again.[6] Would have another huge fundraising operation, and could threaten more swing states if he promises to "fix" a health care plan inspired by him rather than "repeal" it. |
| Disadvantages: Everything that made him lose to Obama in 2012. The public was turned off by his stuffy demeanor, flip-flopping and out-of-touch statements about wealth in America, while the majority of conservatives were never comfortable with his past as a "Massachusetts moderate" and Mormon missionary. Only two politicians have successfully become POTUS after previously losing a general election, and in both cases conceded in squeakers, not by 4% of the popular vote.[7] | |
Scott Walker Age: 47 Governor of Wisconsin |
Advantages: His remarkable success in winning three straight elections (in four years) while enacting the most draconian policy agenda possible in a blue state[8] has raised his profile as a potential dark horse. Coincidentally, it could mean the second time in a row where the GOP tries to gain ground in Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes. |
| Disadvantages: Think of a smug, self-satisfied Tim Pawlenty... you can see how this becomes a problem. Will insure that women and union members show up in droves on election day, at a time when Republicans are desperately attempting to detach them from the Democrats. Also keep an eye out on the ongoing "John Doe" controversy.[9] |
Looked like they were going to, but declined
Jon Huntsman Age: 55 Former Ambassador to Singapore/China and Governor of Utah |
Advantages: Current spot as chairman of the Atlantic Council caps an extensive career in diplomacy under Bush 41 and Obama presidencies. An honest-to-god pro-gay marriage, pro-climate, and pro-immigrant conservative. Increasingly disillusioned with the direction of the GOP (says he plans to "re-infuse it with the ideals of Roosevelt and Eisenhower" and even threatening to start a third party[10]), which is code for "Excuse me as I abandon ship and try to pick up the pieces in the next decade." |
| Disadvantages: Like Romney, 2012 demonstrated that a Mormon candidate still carries stigma with social conservatives, as well as being associated with the terms "Obama" and "China." Being born into the family of a billionaire will always make him vulnerable to populist barbs. Passing abortion restrictions and a flat tax in Utah hampers his "only sane man" image. |
GOP primary polls
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Brace yourself. The 2016 Republican field is going to be huge, Washington Post
- ↑ Chris Christie’s Greatest Weakness, Politico
- ↑ "Everybody Hates Ted: Study Finds Facebook Users Almost Unanimously Dislike Cruz"
- ↑ How low would they go? One consultant says 12 states.
- ↑ Watch Rand Paul Bolt as an Immigration Activist Confronts Steve King, National Journal
- ↑ Why 2016 May Be Mitt Romney’s Year, The New York Times
- ↑ Ann Romney also lives with MS, which is an extra incentive for the family to not put up with crap for a third time.
- ↑ Gov. Scott Walker to blame for poor job growth, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
- ↑ The Scott Walker campaign finance investigation, explained, Vox
- ↑ Jon Huntsman won’t rule out 2016 run, but eyes sidelines for now, The Salt Lake Tribune