2016 Republican Party presidential nomination

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(Confirmed running: The crazy people who get to decide who gets into Congress are arguably outcrazied by those who get to decide who will be able to run with that little (R) on their ticket...)
(May run: Romney quits)
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| rowspan="2" style="text-align: center;width: 150px; border-bottom: solid 2px black; border-right: solid 2px black"|[[File:Mitt_Romney_by_Gage_Skidmore_7.jpg|80px]]<br/>'''[[Mitt Romney]]'''<br/>Age: {{Age|1947|03|12}}<br/>Former Governor of [[Massachusetts]]
 
| rowspan="2" style="text-align: center;width: 150px; border-bottom: solid 2px black; border-right: solid 2px black"|[[File:Mitt_Romney_by_Gage_Skidmore_7.jpg|80px]]<br/>'''[[Mitt Romney]]'''<br/>Age: {{Age|1947|03|12}}<br/>Former Governor of [[Massachusetts]]
|'''Advantages''': Effectively the "In Case of Emergency, Break Glass" candidate: if there is concern that the frontrunners are ''really'' inadequate as debate season approaches, expect fierce pressure by the RNC to draft him yet again.<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/upshot/why-2016-may-be-mitt-romneys-year.html?abt=0002&abg=0 Why 2016 May Be Mitt Romney’s Year], ''The New York Times''</ref> (As of November 2014, 20% of the party believes he deserves another shot.<ref>[http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/nov/26/mitt-romney-top-republican-contender-2016-poll Mitt Romney is top Republican contender for 2016, poll finds], ''The Guardian''</ref>)  Would have a huge fundraising operation like before, and could challenge more [[swing state]]s if he promises to "fix" a [[ACA|health care plan inspired by him]] rather than "repeal" it.  
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|'''Advantages''': Effectively the "In Case of Emergency, Break Glass" candidate: if there is concern that the frontrunners are ''really'' inadequate as debate season approaches, expect fierce pressure by the RNC to draft him yet again.<ref>[http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/upshot/why-2016-may-be-mitt-romneys-year.html?abt=0002&abg=0 Why 2016 May Be Mitt Romney’s Year], ''The New York Times''</ref> (As of November 2014, 20% of the party believes he deserves another shot.<ref>[http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/nov/26/mitt-romney-top-republican-contender-2016-poll Mitt Romney is top Republican contender for 2016, poll finds], ''The Guardian''</ref>)  Would have a huge fundraising operation like before, and could challenge more [[swing state]]s if he promises to "fix" a [[ACA|health care plan inspired by him]] rather than "repeal" it. [http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/30/mitt-romney-is-not-running-for-president_n_6579774.html?utm_hp_ref=tw Bows out Jan 2015].
 
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|style="border-bottom: solid 2px black"|'''Disadvantages''': Everything that made him lose to [[Barack Obama]] in 2012.  The public was turned off by his stuffy demeanor, flip-flopping and out-of-touch statements about wealth in America, while the majority of conservatives were never comfortable with his past as a "Massachusetts moderate" and [[Mormon]] missionary.  [[POTUS#Grover Cleveland (1885-1889, 1893-1897)|Only]] [[Richard Nixon|two]] politicians have successfully become POTUS after previously losing a general election, and in both cases conceded in squeakers, not by 4% of the popular vote.<ref>Ann Romney also lives with MS, which is an extra incentive for the family to not put up with crap for a third time.</ref>
 
|style="border-bottom: solid 2px black"|'''Disadvantages''': Everything that made him lose to [[Barack Obama]] in 2012.  The public was turned off by his stuffy demeanor, flip-flopping and out-of-touch statements about wealth in America, while the majority of conservatives were never comfortable with his past as a "Massachusetts moderate" and [[Mormon]] missionary.  [[POTUS#Grover Cleveland (1885-1889, 1893-1897)|Only]] [[Richard Nixon|two]] politicians have successfully become POTUS after previously losing a general election, and in both cases conceded in squeakers, not by 4% of the popular vote.<ref>Ann Romney also lives with MS, which is an extra incentive for the family to not put up with crap for a third time.</ref>

Revision as of 16:18, 30 January 2015

We're not going to have a circus.
—Reince Priebus, Republican National Committee Chairman

The Republican race to retake the White House after eight years on the sidelines will begin in 2015, culminating in the 1968 Democratic 2016 Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.

It's gonna be a free-for-all: the GOP field will be the largest and most divided in decades, with nearly 30 elephants under consideration.[1][2] Betting odds are updated real-time here.

Contents

Confirmed running

Jeb Bush 2013 CPAC by Gage Skidmore5.jpg
Jeb Bush
Age: 62
Former Governor of Florida
Advantages: He's a standard-issue Republican,[3] so his main appeal seems to be bucking the style of his party, though not necessarily the substance. Has a long list of legislative and corporate experience. Speaks fluent Spanish, and may (just may) be able to sell the benefits of comprehensive immigration reform and Common Core; any route to a GOP presidency requires flipping Florida, which is turning blue by the hour. And he's remarked that Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush would "have had a hard time" securing delegates today, a rare moment of lucidity.[4]
Disadvantages: The Bush name is not a pleasant brand in this day and age. This particular branch includes the Terri Schiavo case, fervent denial of climate change, the creation of the first school voucher system, the signing of the first Stand Your Ground bill into law, and his hatred of rapprochement with Cuba or Iran. Especially damaging is his opposition to marriage equality, in a day where his own damn state has legalized it.
Chris Christie 2011 Shankbone.JPG
Chris Christie
Age: 52
Governor of New Jersey
Advantages: Moderate on social issues. Competent handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Appears less driven by ideology than other Republicans, an asset that (as head of the Republican Governors' Association) helped the party pick up a bunch of northern states in the 2014 midterms. Post-2012 polling showed that he was the only Republican that could seriously compete with Hillary Clinton, so he was — until recently — treated by everyone as the presumptive nominee. Pleasingly plump.
Disadvantages: His straight-talking attitude has proven to be a double-edged sword, and not just in the sense of his condescension towards voters. It will be particularly difficult for him to deviate later from hardline stances he will need to take during the Republican primaries. They play hardball politics in New Jersey, but he hasn't been lucky in striking out (ahem) the state's budget crisis.[5] Even if he escapes 'Bridgegate' charges and similar messes, he will be remembered as "the guy who fucked with your commute because he didn't like your politics."
Rick Santorum official photo.jpg
Rick Santorum
Age: 56
Former Pennsylvania Senator
Advantages: First runner up in the last primary, and voters have a habit of going for the next-in-line, if they run in consecutive primaries. Has the machinery in place, including the 150,000 strong "Patriot Voices" support base, to run — and fund — a campaign. Probably batshit insane enough to appeal to the rabid right of the GOP. Has kept a fairly low profile since the last election, allowing other potential contenders to stand up and make asses of themselves.
Disadvantages: Besides being Rick Santorum? Given that despite their best efforts to alienate everyone who isn't rich and white, the GOP now holds both houses, one has to wonder about Santorum's views on homosexuality & same-sex marriage, abortion, contraception, science, etc., which should make him untouchable amongst thinking people. It's likely his views will resonate with the crazy people currently deciding who gets into Congress (or at least the people who decides who gets to run on the Republican ticket).


May run

John Bolton by Gage Skidmore.jpg
John Bolton[wp]
Age: 66
Former Ambassador to the United Nations
Advantages: Hardcore neocon hawks would probably love him. His disdain towards any kind of international organizations and diplomacy plays well to the "USA! USA! USA!"-unilateralists.
Disadvantages: Appetites for neocon-style interventionism have been dulled by the legacy of Bolton's former employer. What is Bolton going to do about domestic issues? No, really, we'd like to know.
Ben Carson by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Ben Carson
Age: 63
Retired neurosurgeon
Advantages: Appeals to African-American Republicans and other conservatives. Might bring in some non-GOP African-American voters.
Disadvantages: A creationist, and a paid tout for quack nutritional supplements. The National Review has already nixed him.
Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 3.jpg
Ted Cruz
Age: 44
Junior Senator from Texas
Advantages: He's entertaining and has great name recognition.[6] Beloved by the deepest depths of the conservative base (and Rick Perry's donors), a favorite to win the Ames Iowa straw poll, and has more influence on party strategy than GOP bigwigs dare admit. Might get a boost from overseas voters.
Disadvantages: Pissed off fellow Republicans with his lame duck filibuster costing them a dozen or so lifetime federal judge appointments.[1] Other than that, oh... erm, nothing. Nothing at all. He'd be fine anywhere on the ticket.[7] Move along.
Carly Fiorina.jpg
Carly Fiorina[wp]
Age: 60
ex-CEO
Advantages: Likely actually running for Vice President or the cabinet since she's not wingnutty enough to win the nomination.
Disadvantages: Being forced out of HP after the stock lost half its value doesn't look too good even by CEO standards.
Lindsey Graham, official Senate photo portrait, 2006.jpg
Lindsey Graham[wp]
Age: 59
South Carolina Senator
Advantages: Retired Air Force Colonel; Desert Storm, Iraq and Afghan War veteran; Commander-in-Chief and anti-Caliph wannabe. Quite good bipartisan record could be an advantage with moderates.
Disadvantages: John McCain's illegitimate son. His problem is effectively the reverse of the wingnuts': While his bipartisan and more moderate record might help win over moderate voters when confronting the Democrats, it also makes him vulnerable to rejection by the hardcore Republican base.
Mike Huckabee by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Mike Huckabee
Age: 59
Former Governor of Arkansas
Advantages: Once offered Stephen Colbert the Vice Presidency if elected.
Disadvantages: A dominionist. Played bass for Ted Nugent.
Bobby Jindal by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Bobby Jindal
Age: 43
Governor of Louisiana
Advantages: Apart from potential benefits/pitfalls of tokenism, Jindal has managed to run Louisiana since 2008, winning a clear re-election victory in 2011. Has great wingnut credentials.
Disadvantages: Those aforementioned wingnut credentials; e.g. claiming to have wrestled demons, support for creationist teaching in biology classes, anti-abortion, and Islamophobic nonsense to the far right of Fox News. Sure, it may play to (some) Republican primary voters, but probably not in the final contest against the Democrats.
Governor John Kasich.jpg
John Kasich[wp]
Age: 62
Governor of Ohio
Advantages: Authored the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, the last time the Federal budget was balanced.
Disadvantages: Served as managing director of Lehman Brothers's in Ohio when it collapsed in the Panic of 2008.
5.3.10SarahPalinByDavidShankbone.jpg
Sarah Palin
Age: 51
ex-Governor of Alaska
Advantages: Will add to the circus atmosphere with her strange photo-ops; attempted hijacking of the Feminist movement.
Disadvantages: Lightning rod for criticism both in and out of the party. Helped sink the 2008 John McCain campaign.
Rand Paul.jpg
Rand Paul
Age: 52
Junior Senator from Kentucky
Advantages: Strongly identifies with the Tea Party anti-establishment. Lots of media attention. Relatively non-interventionist in foreign policy. Has criticized mandatory minimum sentences and polls surprisingly well with black Americans.[8]
Disadvantages: A near-clone of his father, but unlike Ron has a scary chance to hijack the nomination. Styles himself as a hawk, yet neocons have seen through the ruse for a long time (e.g. his drone filibuster and strange views on foreign aid to Israel). Big business balks at his opposition to corporate subsidies, literally running away from DREAMers,[9] and being one of the faces of the government shutdown beside Cruz. He drinks the Religious Right's Kool-Aid, but they won't like his libertarian solutions. Likely to attract all of his dad's crackpot followers, and has a goldmine of brain-dead gaffes and skeletons in the closet. In other words, political harakiri.
Rick Perry.jpg
Rick Perry
Age: 65
ex-Governor of Texas
Advantages: He probably has the Texas vote locked up. He claims he's learned from his mistakes in his previous run, so if he can cut down on the "Oops" from four letters to three, that would be an improvement.
Disadvantages: "…Oops!" The usual anti-science, anti-Constitutional religious pandering to the religious right. He may join the locked-up voters since a judge refused to drop felony charges against him.
Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 7.jpg
Mitt Romney
Age: 68
Former Governor of Massachusetts
Advantages: Effectively the "In Case of Emergency, Break Glass" candidate: if there is concern that the frontrunners are really inadequate as debate season approaches, expect fierce pressure by the RNC to draft him yet again.[10] (As of November 2014, 20% of the party believes he deserves another shot.[11]) Would have a huge fundraising operation like before, and could challenge more swing states if he promises to "fix" a health care plan inspired by him rather than "repeal" it. Bows out Jan 2015.
Disadvantages: Everything that made him lose to Barack Obama in 2012. The public was turned off by his stuffy demeanor, flip-flopping and out-of-touch statements about wealth in America, while the majority of conservatives were never comfortable with his past as a "Massachusetts moderate" and Mormon missionary. Only two politicians have successfully become POTUS after previously losing a general election, and in both cases conceded in squeakers, not by 4% of the popular vote.[12]
Marco Rubio, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Marco Rubio[wp]
Age: 43
Junior Senator from Florida
Advantages: He's seen as a young, up-and-coming conservative — a sort of Republican answer to Obama, and some insiders regret he wasn't Romney's running mate. A Cuban-American, he could bring over members of a key demographic that Republicans are now having a very hard time trying to win over.[13]
Disadvantages: Other than being the tepid face of immigration reform in the Senate,[14] there's nothing distinctly forward-thinking about him. If he were inaugurated in 2017, he would be the third-youngest president, and has neither the populist streak of a Roosevelt, the charisma of a Kennedy nor the political acumen of a Slick Willie. His parents were born outside the US, making him ineligible by birther standards, and he's actually unpopular with Hispanics overall.[15] And look at the fear in his eyes.
Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Donald Trump
Age: 68
Businessman
Advantages: An expert on bankruptcies
Disadvantages: You're fired!
Scott Walker by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Scott Walker
Age: 47
Governor of Wisconsin
Advantages: His remarkable success in winning three straight elections (in four years) while implementing the most draconian policy agenda possible in a blue state[16] has raised his profile as a potential dark horse. Coincidentally, it could mean the second time in a row where the GOP decides to target in Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes.
Disadvantages: Think of a smug, self-satisfied Tim Pawlenty — you can see how this becomes a problem. Will insure that women and union members show up in droves on election day, at a time when Republicans are desperately seeking ways to detach them from the Democrats. Has no college degree, an achievement not seen since Harry Truman! Under his leadership Wisconsin is next biggest offender on the fart chart.[2] Also, keep an eye out on the ongoing "John Doe" controversy.[17]

Looked like they were going to, but declined

Jon Huntsman by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Jon Huntsman
Age: 55
Former Ambassador to Singapore/China and Governor of Utah
Advantages: Current spot as chairman of the Atlantic Council caps an extensive career in diplomacy under Bush 41 and Obama presidencies. An honest-to-god pro-gay marriage and pro-climate conservative. Increasingly disillusioned with the direction of the GOP (says he plans to "re-infuse it with the ideals of Lincoln, Roosevelt and Eisenhower" and even threatening to start a third party[18]), which is code for "Excuse me while I abandon ship and attempt to pick up the pieces over the next decade."
Disadvantages: Like Romney, 2012 demonstrated that a Mormon candidate still carries stigma with social conservatives, as well as his association with the terms "Obama" and "China." Being born into the family of a billionaire will always make him vulnerable to populist barbs. Passing abortion restrictions and a flat tax in Utah hampers his "only sane man" image.
USTR Rob Portman, Press Briefing at the U.S. Mission.jpg
Rob Portman
Age: 59
Junior Senator from Ohio
Advantages: Has 15+ years in Congress, bi-partisan, did some trade representative-ey things, and known for playing Democrats in mock debate sessions. Clinton advisors were genuinely worried if he campaigned and campaigned well.[19]
Disadvantages: The first sitting Republican Senator (if you exclude Lincoln Chaffee) to openly support same-sex marriage. Why are there tumbleweeds on the horizon?[20]

GOP primary polls

See also

Footnotes

  1. Brace yourself. The 2016 Republican field is going to be HUGE, Washington Post (*pats back* We know. We know.)
  2. GOP Field Hasn’t Been This Split in 40 Years, FiveThirtyEight
  3. Jeb Bush, On the Issues (Including the school vouchers.)
  4. Jeb Bush Questions G.O.P.’s Shift to the Right, The New York Times
  5. Chris Christie’s Greatest Weakness, Politico
  6. "Everybody Hates Ted: Study Finds Facebook Users Almost Unanimously Dislike Cruz"
  7. How low would they go? One consultant says "a dozen" states. (For an idea of how that looks like...)
  8. Just wait until they hear about his comments about the Civil Rights Act.
  9. Watch Rand Paul Bolt as an Immigration Activist Confronts Steve King, National Journal
  10. Why 2016 May Be Mitt Romney’s Year, The New York Times
  11. Mitt Romney is top Republican contender for 2016, poll finds, The Guardian
  12. Ann Romney also lives with MS, which is an extra incentive for the family to not put up with crap for a third time.
  13. After decades of GOP support, Cubans shifting toward the Democratic Party, Pew Research
  14. Rubio's Immigration Flip-Flop, The Daily Beast
  15. New Poll Shows That Republicans Are Totally Screwed With Latino Voters, Business Insider
  16. Gov. Scott Walker to blame for poor job growth, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
  17. The Scott Walker campaign finance investigation, explained, Vox
  18. Jon Huntsman won’t rule out 2016 run, but eyes sidelines for now, The Salt Lake Tribune
  19. Bush-Portman ticket would be hard to beat, Clinton friend says, Tampa Bay Times
  20. Pro-Equality Repub Rob Portman Won't Seek Presidency, The Advocate
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