Bjørn Lomborg
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==Copenhagen Consensus Project== | ==Copenhagen Consensus Project== | ||
Lomborg set up a [[think tank]] called the Copenhagen Consensus Project (a misnomer, to be sure), which generally pushes wishful thinking about geo-engineering. Geo-engineering is largely seen as a last-ditch solution due to the fact that pumping the atmosphere full of massive amounts of sulfur as Lomborg favors may have loads of unintended consequences and doesn't deal with a number of problems created by increased carbon dioxide levels such as ocean acidification (the project tends to omit these considerations in its reports). | Lomborg set up a [[think tank]] called the Copenhagen Consensus Project (a misnomer, to be sure), which generally pushes wishful thinking about geo-engineering. Geo-engineering is largely seen as a last-ditch solution due to the fact that pumping the atmosphere full of massive amounts of sulfur as Lomborg favors may have loads of unintended consequences and doesn't deal with a number of problems created by increased carbon dioxide levels such as ocean acidification (the project tends to omit these considerations in its reports). | ||
| + | ==Eco-terrorism== | ||
| + | In 2001, Lomborg was pied in the face by environmental activist Mark Lynas during a book signing at Borders.<ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOg8IqkS4PA Lomborg cream pied by Mark Lynas]</ref> | ||
==External links== | ==External links== | ||
Revision as of 20:19, 14 September 2011
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Bjørn Lomborg is a Danish academic, somewhat controversial because of his writings on environmental issues. Lomborg is frequently cited as an economist, though his doctorate is in political science and he was a professor of statistics before turning his eye toward environmental economics.
Contents |
The Lomborg Fallacy
With respect to climate change mitigation, Lomborg presents the same false dichotomy in much of his output: There are limited resources, so we must choose between dealing with global warming or what Lomborg has decided are "more important problems." He considers AIDS, starvation, malnutrition, and poverty to be more important problems than global warming. His framing of the issue treats global warming as a discrete issue, ignoring the fact that it will actually exacerbate the other problems he considers to be more important. Of course the spread of infectious disease and poverty are major problems, and global warming will make them worse!
The Skeptical Environmentalist
Lomborg is best known as the author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and his cynicism concerning current approaches to environmental issues. While the book met with generally gushing reviews in the popular media, it was not so well received in the scientific press. But it's got over 3,000 footnotes, so it must be thoroughly researched and authoritative, right?
Getting skeptical about science?
The book contains a litany (to borrow Lomborg's turn of phrase) of factual inaccuracies and substantial cherry-picking and quote mining of research.[1] Lomborg looks at a number of environmental issues and generally picks the most favorable citations he can find regardless of whether they're out of date, out of context, or if they in fact say the opposite of what he claims. Some of his more egregious and sweeping mistakes based on faulty analysis include:
- Lomborg underestimates the rate of species extinction by an order of magnitude and concludes that extinction rates are not increasing.[2][3]
- The use of reports that use differing definitions of forests to declare that deforestation was only slight over the second half of the 20th century.[4]
- Discounting a number of negative effects of global warming such as rising sea levels and cherry-picking best-case scenarios.[5]
The thrust of Lomborg's argument is that a, environmental claims have been overblown, and b, economic and technological innovation has and will continue to solve environmental problems. Both of these claims are true, but not to the extent that Lomborg would have the reader believe. On the first point, he often fails to differentiate between popular and scientific literature (he frequently cites secondhand popular sources in order to "debunk" environmental claims) and his numerous errors in reporting the scientific literature undercut the argument severely. On the second point, he is correct in stating that life expectancy, wealth, and general standards of living have risen over the last century due to technological innovation. However, he also applies this argument to environmental conditions while failing to credit environmental standards and regulations for decreased pollution in some first world, industrial cities in addition to technology and development. Lomborg fails to take into account that this innovation is sometimes driven by the need to meet new standards. There are valid points in his argument that economic growth and technology can improve environmental conditions, but it's crippled by his gratuitous spinning of science.
DCSD and scientific dishonesty
In 2003, the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty (DCSD) issued a report in reaction to numerous complaints about The Skeptical Environmentalist. It ruled:
“”Objectively speaking, the publication of the work under consideration is deemed to fall within the concept of scientific dishonesty.
In view of the subjective requirements made in terms of intent or gross negligence, however, Lomborg's publication cannot fall within the bounds of this characterization. Conversely, the publication is deemed clearly contrary to the standards of good scientific practice.[6]
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The Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (of which DCSD is a part) issued a statement repudiating the DCSD ruling due to procedural errors, largely over the definition of "scientific dishonesty" and whether DCSD had jurisdiction over a non-peer reviewed book in mass media.[7][8]
Cool It
Cool It is Lomborg's sequel to The Skeptical Environmentalist that was subsequently recycled into a documentary of the same name. Lomborg takes the same approach here as he did in his last polemic — cherry-pick all the low-end estimates and sprinkle various distortions on top of that.[9] A central flaw to all of his arguments in this book is that he assumes a warming of roughly 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, which is toward the low end of the IPCC estimates, which take a 3 degree plus/minus 1.5 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide and set the best estimate range for 2100 at 1.8-4 degrees. Lomborg is sometimes mischaracterized a climate denier, though it would be more accurate to call him a "delayer" who falls back on denialist talking points when it's convenient. The book parrots a number of denialist canards, including the mythical increasing polar bear population,[10] sea level rise of one foot (or about 30 cm, which is still in the lower range of the 18-59 cm IPCC projections, which also don't account for worst-case scenarios such as the full ice sheet melt uncertainty),[11] and fewer deaths due to cold (it helps to ignore deaths from increased heat and infectious diseases caused by warming).[12] This, along with his cherry-picking of economic models that predict the highest costs for emission caps, causes Lomborg to seriously overestimate the cost of mitigation effects. Instead, he recommends investing largely in alternative energy (not something any environmentalist would disagree with anyway) and geo-engineering research to be paid for with a modest carbon tax.
Copenhagen Consensus Project
Lomborg set up a think tank called the Copenhagen Consensus Project (a misnomer, to be sure), which generally pushes wishful thinking about geo-engineering. Geo-engineering is largely seen as a last-ditch solution due to the fact that pumping the atmosphere full of massive amounts of sulfur as Lomborg favors may have loads of unintended consequences and doesn't deal with a number of problems created by increased carbon dioxide levels such as ocean acidification (the project tends to omit these considerations in its reports).
Eco-terrorism
In 2001, Lomborg was pied in the face by environmental activist Mark Lynas during a book signing at Borders.[13]
External links
- Lomborg's homepage
- Lomborg Errors
- The Lomborg Deception
- Book Review: The Lomborg Deception, Sharon Begley, Newsweek
- Willful Idiocy: Unpacking Lomborg's Climate Nonsense, The Way Things Break
- Deltoid: Lomborg Spreads DDT Ban Myth, Misinformation from Lomborg, So What's Wrong With Lomborg?, The Australian's War on Science XXI
Commentary on The Skeptical Environmentalist
- Debate over The Skeptical Environmentalist, Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado
- A Skeptical Look at The Skeptical Environmentalis, Grist special series
- Misleading Math About the Earth, Scientific American. Lomborg's response, responses to the response by John Rennie and John Holdren.
- More heat, less light on Lomborg. Nature 421, 195 (16 January 2003)
- Review by the Union of Concerned Scientists
- Rorsch et al. On the Opposition Against the Book The Skeptical Environmentalist by B. Lomborg. Journal of Information Ethics, Spring 2005. (An academic defense, albeit lukewarm, of Lomborg.)
Skeptical Inquirer series
- Skeptical About The Skeptical Environmentalist, Richard M. Fisher
- The Skeptical Environmentalist: A Case Study in the Manufacture of News, Matt Nisbet
- Follow-up to Matt Nisbet, John Stahle
Commentary on Cool It
- Can Anyone Stop It? Bill McKibben, New York Review of Books
- Salon: Hot Air, Interview with Lomborg
- 'Cool' Climate Film Takes on 'Truth', Andrew Revkin
- On Hurricanes and Global Warming, Don't Cool It Too Much, Chris Mooney
- Let's Keep Our Cool About Global Warming, Lomborg in Skeptical Inquirer. Response by Chris Mooney.
- Bjorn Lomborg's Cool It Documentary Full of Ozone Sized Holes, Daily Green
Copenhagen Consensus Project
- Homepage
- This Is Neither Scepticism Nor Science - Just Nonsense, The Guardian
- Copenhagen Review, John Quiggin
- The Copenhagen Distraction, OSS Foundation
- Real Climate: The Copenhagen Consensus, A Biased Economic Analysis of Geoengineering
Footnotes
- ↑ There are far too many to list here, but a catalog of errors can be found at Lomborg Errors' section on The Skeptical Environmentalist.
- ↑ On Bjorn Lomborg and Extinction, E.O. Wilson
- ↑ See also the National Research Council's report In the Light of Evolution, Volume II: Biodiversity and Extinction
- ↑ On Bjorn Lomborg and deforestation, Emily Matthews
- ↑ Ch. 24: Global Warming, Lomborg Errors
- ↑ DCSD report
- ↑ Lomborg celebrates ministry ruling, BBC
- ↑ Criticisms of UVVU, Lomborg Errors
- ↑ Once again, there are loads of factual inaccuracies. See Lomborg Errors' section on Cool It.
- ↑ How Will Global Warming Affect Polar Bears? Skeptical Science
- ↑ The IPCC Sea Level Numbers, Real Climate
- ↑ Positives and Negatives of Global Warming, Skeptical Science
- ↑ Lomborg cream pied by Mark Lynas