Pearl Harbor conspiracy theory

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==December 7==
 
==December 7==
[[File:USSArizona PearlHarbor 2.jpg|thumb|USS Arizona sinks]]
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[[File:USSArizona PearlHarbor 2.jpg|thumb|USS Arizona sinks, along with this theory.]]
 
===A Japanese midget submarine was sunk before the bombing began.===
 
===A Japanese midget submarine was sunk before the bombing began.===
 
This is an argument for [[Hanlon's razor|incompetence]] rather than conspiracy. If FDR knew the attack was coming but the Navy didn't, this tells us nothing. If FDR knew it and had informed Navy higher-ups to ignore it, then we're getting into vast conspiracy territory and assume that none of the informed Naval officers ever squealed, even in memoirs later in life. If everyone knew about, it's an even more vast conspiracy and it wouldn't make much sense to fire on the sub if they ''wanted'' Pearl Harbor to be attacked. What actually happened was that one of the officers was informed of the incident and took his men off their posts to breakfast.
 
This is an argument for [[Hanlon's razor|incompetence]] rather than conspiracy. If FDR knew the attack was coming but the Navy didn't, this tells us nothing. If FDR knew it and had informed Navy higher-ups to ignore it, then we're getting into vast conspiracy territory and assume that none of the informed Naval officers ever squealed, even in memoirs later in life. If everyone knew about, it's an even more vast conspiracy and it wouldn't make much sense to fire on the sub if they ''wanted'' Pearl Harbor to be attacked. What actually happened was that one of the officers was informed of the incident and took his men off their posts to breakfast.

Revision as of 02:21, 20 February 2011

Some dare call it

Conspiracy

link=:category:
Secrets revealed!
The revealers

The Pearl Harbor conspiracy theory refers to a LIHOP-style ("Let It Happen on Purpose") theory that Franklin Delano Roosevelt had foreknowledge of the Pearl Harbor attack and deliberately allowed the naval station to be attacked. No scholarly historical research supports the theory. These are the points generally brought up by the Pearl Harbor theorists:

Contents

Lead-up to the attack

FDR wanted war with Japan/Germany. He had been planning it all along.

This point is actually a recycled criticism of FDR from the days he was actually in office. There was a strongly isolationist atmosphere in the US due to disillusionment with World War I and the Great Depression. Young adults of the Roaring Twenties were referred to as "The Lost Generation." With the economic collapse in 1929, people were far more worried about the state of their own country than international affairs. The Old Right, "Taft Republicans," and Republicans in general were hard-line isolationists. Conspiracy theorists often like to throw out quotes by FDR's opposition painting him as a warmonger.

However, FDR's arms build-up enjoyed bi-partisan support. The Army was so poor it was training its soldiers with wooden guns during the Depression. FDR was a Wilsonian and supporter of free trade, and so clearly came down on the side of the Allies with policies such as the Lend-Lease Act and the Four Freedoms. However, his stated policy was "All aid short of war" and had issued memos to the military making it known that they should not attempt to engage in any offensive action. This is similar to the Truthers who cite Project for a New American Century documents. It's merely circumstantial evidence, not definitive proof.

There were clear signs in radio transmissions intercepted by intelligence.

This ignores the signal-to-noise ratio in the intelligence. Most messages were vague or not fully decoded and the ones that were more explicit were awash in a much larger sea of intelligence stating the opposite or having nothing to do with Pearl Harbor. There were also similar problems in intelligence collection to the ones that happened pre-9/11: Oftentimes, low-level intelligence officers would decode reports and then file them away in some dusty cabinet, never to be seen again. Communication between agencies wasn't perfect, or even that good, so a full picture of what the intelligence suggested never emerged. If anything, these conspiracy theories are a good argument for streamlining intelligence rather than arguments for a real conspiracy.

The McCollom memo, outlining a strategy in the Pacific, proves war was the goal.

More circumstantial evidence. FDR, as well as his military advisors and naval officers in the Pacific, were wary of the growing Japanese empire and the possibility that it could strike the US. Every country draws up war plans for preparation for vast numbers of situations that may never occur. This sort of thing isn't unique to the run-up to Pearl Harbor.

December 7

USS Arizona sinks, along with this theory.

A Japanese midget submarine was sunk before the bombing began.

This is an argument for incompetence rather than conspiracy. If FDR knew the attack was coming but the Navy didn't, this tells us nothing. If FDR knew it and had informed Navy higher-ups to ignore it, then we're getting into vast conspiracy territory and assume that none of the informed Naval officers ever squealed, even in memoirs later in life. If everyone knew about, it's an even more vast conspiracy and it wouldn't make much sense to fire on the sub if they wanted Pearl Harbor to be attacked. What actually happened was that one of the officers was informed of the incident and took his men off their posts to breakfast.

Three aircraft carriers were out of port on war games. They obviously did this to save the carriers.

The thing is, battleships were considered of primary importance as carriers were untested weapons of war. If this were a conspiracy, letting the enemy take out such a huge portion of your fleet, even sans the three carriers, ranks as a big fail at best and batshit crazy at worst.

The planes were sitting ducks outside of their hangars. They left them out in the open intentionally.

The fighters were actually sitting on the tarmac outside the hangars to prevent an attack. Some of the Naval commanders were afraid of saboteurs breaking into the hangars and messing with the planes, so they left them out in the open.

Japanese planes picked up on radar were ignored.

The intelligence officer who was stationed at Opana Point, where the Japanese squadrons were detected, was a fresh recruit who had never used the equipment before, which itself was still under construction. The officer believed the Japanese planes to be American bombers. If he had been part of the conspiracy, that involves even low-level lackeys, a truly vast conspiracy. In addition to that, even if the officer had given a warning, it's not clear how much Pearl Harbor could have prepared for the swiftly approaching squadrons anyway.

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