User:RobSmith

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m (U.S. Population growth, Employment, and the Money Supply)
m (U.S. Population growth, Employment, and the Money Supply)
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[[File:US population Jun 1999 to Feb 2012.PNG|500px|left|thumb|'''U.S. Population Jun 1999 - Mar 2012.''']]
 
[[File:US population Jun 1999 to Feb 2012.PNG|500px|left|thumb|'''U.S. Population Jun 1999 - Mar 2012.''']]
 
[[File:US employment Jun 1999 to Feb 2012.png|500px|left|thumb|'''U.S. Employment Jun 1999 - Mar 2012.''' In the same period only 3.5 million jobs have been created. ''In fact'', the U.S. workforce in Mar 2012 is the same size it was at the outset of 2001. While population has grown 32 million in eleven years, only one job has been created for every nine persons in population growth.]]
 
[[File:US employment Jun 1999 to Feb 2012.png|500px|left|thumb|'''U.S. Employment Jun 1999 - Mar 2012.''' In the same period only 3.5 million jobs have been created. ''In fact'', the U.S. workforce in Mar 2012 is the same size it was at the outset of 2001. While population has grown 32 million in eleven years, only one job has been created for every nine persons in population growth.]]
Meanwhile, the U.S. has suffered two recessions, with virtually no employment growth yet increasing population demands. While productivity gains, output per man hour, and overall employment have been static, the U.S. Money Supply (M1, cash in circulation + checking accounts) as seen wide swings in growth -- has much as 10% during the 2001 recession and years following, and now 20% increases following the 2008 recession.
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Meanwhile, the U.S. has suffered two recessions, with virtually no employment growth yet increasing population demands. While productivity gains, output per man hour, and overall employment have been static, the U.S. Money Supply (M1, cash in circulation + checking accounts) has seen wide swings in growth -- as much as 10% during the 2001 recession and years following, and now 20% increases following the 2008 recession.
 
[[File:M1 1999 to present annualized percent chng.PNG|500px|left|thumb|'''U.S. Money Supply''' ''Cash in circulation plus checking accounts'' (annualized percent increases from prior year).]]
 
[[File:M1 1999 to present annualized percent chng.PNG|500px|left|thumb|'''U.S. Money Supply''' ''Cash in circulation plus checking accounts'' (annualized percent increases from prior year).]]
 
If employment and productivity increases have been negligible to static for eleven years, what can justify ''increasing'' the quantity of money in circulation by $1 trillion ($1000 billion), and ($800 billion of that in past three years?
 
If employment and productivity increases have been negligible to static for eleven years, what can justify ''increasing'' the quantity of money in circulation by $1 trillion ($1000 billion), and ($800 billion of that in past three years?

Revision as of 20:54, 17 March 2012

Contents

The Obama problem

US Pump prices, Jan 2008 to Jan 2012, a measure of US demand.
Crude prices, Jan 2008 to Jan 2012, a measure of world demand.
US Workforce, Jan 2008 to Jan 2012, a measure of overall economic strength & wellbeing.











































Historical data

US Pump prices, Jun 2000 to Jan 2005, a four and one half year period beginning in Jun of an open seat presidential election; note a price recovery from the 3rd quarter of 2003.
Crude prices, Jun 2000 to Jan 2005, again, note a rapid recovery in world crude oil prices from the 3rd quarter of 2003 breaking above all previous highs.
US Workforce, Jun 2000 to Jan 2005, growth in employment after a recession beginning in the 3rd quarter of 2003, just prior to an incumbant presidential re-election bid, spurring rapid increases in both world and US demand for petroleum products.













































Another way of looking at it

U.S. Employment 2003 - 2009 from trough to peak. In this period total employment rose 8 million, from 130 million to 138 million, and declined with the onset of recession.
U.S. Pump prices 2003 - 2009 (semi-annualized). Paralleling the growth in employment, U.S. pump prices rose more than double in the same period, and demand (i.e., the price) peaked at precisely the same moment employment peaked.































U.S. Population growth, Employment, and the Money Supply

Background. From mid 1999 until Mar 2012 the U.S population grew from 280 million to 312 million -- more than 10% -- or 32 million persons.

U.S. Population Jun 1999 - Mar 2012.
U.S. Employment Jun 1999 - Mar 2012. In the same period only 3.5 million jobs have been created. In fact, the U.S. workforce in Mar 2012 is the same size it was at the outset of 2001. While population has grown 32 million in eleven years, only one job has been created for every nine persons in population growth.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has suffered two recessions, with virtually no employment growth yet increasing population demands. While productivity gains, output per man hour, and overall employment have been static, the U.S. Money Supply (M1, cash in circulation + checking accounts) has seen wide swings in growth -- as much as 10% during the 2001 recession and years following, and now 20% increases following the 2008 recession.

U.S. Money Supply Cash in circulation plus checking accounts (annualized percent increases from prior year).

If employment and productivity increases have been negligible to static for eleven years, what can justify increasing the quantity of money in circulation by $1 trillion ($1000 billion), and ($800 billion of that in past three years?

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