2012 apocalypse
From RationalWiki
| Attention!
There are 217 days 20 hours left before the Apocalypse. (refresh) |
| Style over substance |
| Popular pseudosciences |
| Random examples |
| Resources |
The 2012 apocalypse is the belief that civilization as we know it will come to an end in 2012. This bizarre idea was inspired by the Mayan calendar,[1] which completes a cycle on the day corresponding to our Gregorian calendar date of December 21st 2012 CE. Some authors try to tie this all in with Christian, Jewish and Muslim end times beliefs. But it is not going to happen so we don't have to worry about it.
Emotional breakdown and even suicide among people who take all this seriously is feared. [2]
The belief that this is a prediction of the world ending is something akin to believing the world is going to end on December 31st 1999 because the year 2000 starts with a 2 instead of a 1. An even more apt description is that it is the equivalent of believing the world will end on December 31 because you have to throw away this year's calendar, and go out and buy a new one for next year.
A number of pop culture books and websites have tried to give this idea some scientific support,[3] but as per normal with pseudoscience, only the evidence that fits the belief is cited.
Contents |
[edit] The Mayan calendars
To understand where this idea that the world will end comes from (or at least derive the date), we need to look at the three Mayan calendars that have inspired it. There are three Mayan calendars which are important here (we will ignore the Venus one):
- The 260 day long calendar called Tzolk'in, which is used for religious ceremonies and is divided into 20 weeks of 13 days.
- The 365 day long calendar called Haab', which is used for planting crops.
- The Long Count calendar.
Every 52 Haab', the Haab' and Tzolk'in begin on the same day. This is known as a "calendar round". The Maya named a day based on its position in both the Haab' and the Tzolk'in. As a result the Maya could only record dates for 18,980 days (about 52 years),[4] one for each day in the round, which should have seen the average Mayan through most of his or her life. However, being extremely pedantic people, this wasn't enough days for the Maya, so they created the Long Count calendar.
The Long Count calendar counts the number of days since the creation as described by Maya mythology on August 11, 3114 BCE, in base twenty, with two exceptions.
- August 11, 3114 BCE is 13.0.0.0.0 on the Long Count.
- August 12, 3114 BCE is 13.0.0.0.1
- August 30, 3114 BCE is 13.0.0.0.19
- August 31, 3114 BCE is 13.0.0.1.0
The second number from the right, the uinal, only goes to 18. As 18 times 20 is 360 days, 0.0.1.0.0 or 1 tun represents approximately one year.[5] The fifth number or baktun, 1.0.0.0.0, is numbered 1 - 13 for no clearly obvious reason. Upon reaching 13.19.19.17.19, the calendar then ticks back over to 1.0.0.0.0.
The official use of this calendar began 7.13.0.0.0. December 20, 2012 CE will be 12.19.19.17.19 and December 21st 2012 CE will be (shock horror) 13.0.0.0.0 - the completion of one "Grand Cycle".
According to the Mayan creation myths, we are living in the "4th world". The third is said to have ended on 12.19.19.17.19, and likewise, according to the apocalyptomaniacs, will the fourth. This is the origin of the notion that something will end on this date. The Maya were not particularly good at prediction as they did not predict or prevent their own demise. [6]
The Maya themselves thought it was important enough to record events, such as eclipses, that would occur after December 21st 2012 CE, so they didn't seem worried. In fact, the Maya had a unit of time - the alautun - which corresponds to about 63 million years, or 1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 on the Long Count (told you they were pedantic). Other temple markings seem to indicate that this may be a short-hand version of the calendar, as at least one temple puts August 31, 3114 BCE as 13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.0.0.0.0. If this number is days since the universe began, the Maya had a much higher estimate than what is currently agreed upon. (In case you haven't noticed yet, the Maya were dead keen on the numbers 13 and 20.) They definitely did not expect the world to end in 2012. [7]
Basically, if everything is fine on the morning of December 22nd, 2012, then we can finally put this nonsense to rest and go back to throwing wild parties. Interestingly enough, although not coincidentally, 11:11 December 21, 2012 UTC is when the Winter (or if you don't live on the Maya's side of the world, Summer) Solstice will occur; so you might want to have a quick look up at the sky at that point.
[edit] Modern Maya
Modern Maya — the descendants of the people who actually made the calendar in question — do not believe this whole story about the doomsday. They simply consider this year to be the beginning of a new era in a manner comparable to the calendar going from AD 1999 to AD 2000, similar to how we expect the 21st century to end on 2099 CE. Like rational people from other cultures, they probably expect lots of parties and a general lack of planes falling out of the sky. Maya scholars, who have actually looked into Mayan culture, consider the woo merchants to be a bunch of scammers and are looking forward to December 22, 2012, when they can stop answering bloody stupid questions from idiots.
[edit] The apocalypse claim
[edit] Origins in proper anthropology
In 1966, Michael D. Coe, an anthropologist, "ambitiously"[8] stated in his book The Maya[9] that:
| “ | there is a suggestion ... that Armageddon would overtake the degenerate peoples of the world and all creation on the final day of the thirteenth [b'ak'tun]. Thus ... our present universe [would] be annihilated when the Great Cycle of the Long Count reaches completion. | ” |
Coe's date was December 24, 2011. He revised to "11 January AD 2013" in the 1980 second edition of The Maya, settling on December 23, 2012 in the 1984 third edition. The first person to match 13.0.0.0.0 to December 21, 2012 was Robert J. Sharer in his 1983 revision of The Ancient Maya by Sylvanus Morley.
Coe's assertion that the end of the Maya calendar was a prophesy of the end of the world was accepted by other Maya scholars through to the early 1990s. However, other researchers (e.g. Linda Schele and David Freidel in 1990) came to the conclusion that while the end of the 13th cycle would perhaps be a cause for partying like it's the Maya 1999, it did not prophesy the end of the world. The notion passed from scholarly acceptance. And that's fine.
[edit] Adoption by the New Age
Unfortunately, the New Agers had already picked up on it. Terence McKenna wrote about it in The Invisible Landscape - Mind Hallucinogens and The I Ching, a book about the stupendous quantities of drugs he and his brother were taking at the time. Frank Waters, in Mexico Mystique: The Coming Sixth Age of Consciousness, tied Coe's 2011 date to Hopi prophecies and astrology. José Argüelles (who later originated Earth Day) wrote of it in The Transformative Vision and listed the currently popular date, 2012-12-21, in his 1987 book The Mayan Factor: Path Beyond Technology. He claimed that, on this date, the Earth would pass through a great "beam" (of some sort) from the centre of the Galaxy, and that the Maya had aligned their calendar to predict this event.
The 2012 notion was visible in the fringes of New Age and anyone who could get a coherent sentence out of McKenna for many years. It went more mainstream with Daniel Pinchbeck pushing the idea as hard as possible since 2003, culminating in his 2006 bilge 2012: The Return of Quetzalcoatl, tying the earlier theorists' work into crop circles[10], alien abduction, and channelling entities whilst on drugs. The History Channel also cemented its reputation for hard-headed factual exposition with a 2006 show on the subject.
Once it had gained some momentum by the mid-2000s, it was all-in. Even Dan Brown used it (in The Lost Symbol), the truly objective measure of a conspiracy theory having jumped the shark.
[edit] Mechanism
Various unlikely geological and astronomical events have been put forth as possible causes of the apocalypse, such as: the return of aliens who supposedly made the pyramids; [11] magnetic pole reversal; [12] near miss by hidden planet;[13] or astrological alignment with the galactic center.[14] The only common threads are scientific ignorance and wishful thinking.
The "Planet X" hypothesis may be the most laughable. Any blurry, slightly round object in an astronomical photo is claimed to be an image of the elusive world. Apparently, the near-miss of Planet X will cause the Earth to stop rotating for several hours, then re-start. Gravity (and angular momentum, for that matter) can do whatever you want it to ... when you're batshit insane.
The pole reversal hypothesis is based on very real evidence of magnetic pole reversal in the past. Volcanic rocks are regularly observed to have magnetic field lines not pointing in the direction they should if the north magnetic pole had been where it is at the time of their formation. By dating rocks, it's been determined that the poles have reversed numerous times in the past. This process is poorly understood, but it's generally assumed to take thousands of years for a reversal. Doomsayers, however, predict that the reversal will be sudden, and that various ill effects will take place, such as increased influx of solar radiation (plausible) or, once again, that the Earth will stop rotating for several hours, then re-start in the opposite direction (a violation of the law of the conservation of angular momentum). There is also the issue that a magnetic field reversal happens over hundreds of years, rather than overnight.
The galactic center thing is pure bullshit astrology. Something about the earth, the sun, and the galactic core making a straight line at the solstice. "Planetary alignments" such as these are not terribly uncommon events on the cosmological timescale (in fact, many are inevitable due to orbital resonance), and the solar system has never collapsed in on itself because of them.[15]
NASA scientist Dr. Tony Philips has predicted large solar storms in 2012.[16] However, the world was not destroyed last time these occurred in 1958, nor did Philips suggest that it will this time.
Terence McKenna suggested that the key to understanding 2012 is "timewave zero," a numerological formula for "novelty", defined as increase in the universe's organised complexity over time. Apparently, the universe has a teleological attractor at the end of time that increases interconnectedness, eventually reaching a singularity of infinite complexity in 2012, at which point anything and everything imaginable will occur simultaneously.[17] McKenna achieved this insight over several years' consumption of psilocybin and DMT in the 1970s.
[edit] Scientific proof
Unlike most pseudoscientific beliefs, the 2012 Apocalypse contains a falsifiable prediction that can be tested by the scientific method. For practical reasons, scientists have been unable to perform this test as yet. Scientific evidence is, however, expected to be available in the near future.[18]
[edit] Outside science
[edit] Pop culture
The comic strip Wapsi Square uses the 2012 apocalypse as a major plot unifying point, though this was not revealed until well into the comic's run. It also presents the lead character, Monica, as a confirmed skeptic who considers the weird "supernatural" things she encounters on a daily basis as simply a part of her world she doesn't understand yet.
There is also a major film that was released by Columbia Pictures on November 13, 2009,[19] which unfortunately was quite successful. As it was directed by Roland Emmerich of Independence Day and The Day After Tomorrow, it is an understated, character driven romance against the backdrop of a well researched and realistic scenario of political intrigue and upheaval... well, maybe not. The viral marketing for the film was criticized for lending too much weight to crackpot conspiracies about the end of the world.[20]
The film The X-Files notes 12/21/12 as the day aliens return to Earth, foreshadowing an unknown doom. This did not prevent producers from releasing a not-nearly-as-good sequel.
[edit] Politics
A much more dire apocalypse would be triggered by the election of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin or Minnesota congressthing Michele Bachmann to the White House in 2012.
Some idiot,[21] who claims he is a "trend forecaster", is predicting an economic Obamageddon will occur in 2012.[22]
[edit] Televangelism
Jack Van Impe, fresh from his success predicting the rapture in Y2K, now says the Great Tribulation will start in 2012.[23]
[edit] Pleiadians
The Pleiadians will arrive and their mission is to help us. All this evil disaster stuff is the type of nonsense that frightens children. [24]
[edit] Ragnarok
According to Woden's Folk, 2012 will see Ragnarok and the coming of the Hooded Man and Heimdall, and the brave will go to Valhalla.[25][26][27]
[edit] New Age
Some New Age gurus claim that we will all go to 'A better place', which sounds kind of like "It's okay Johnny, daddy's gone to Hell A Better Place™.
[edit] What will really happen
The Olympics will be held in London.[28]
Nothing else
Cthulhu is coming, for the stars will finally be right, as was predicted in South Park. Anyone else who professes any other belief is just a pawn of the government conspiracy to keep it quiet so that everyone will be driven mad and so the government officials will be so appreciated by the Elder Gods that they'll be eaten first! Ia! Ia! Cthulhu Fhtagn![29]
The Earth will definitely and definitively end sometime within the next 7.5 billion years.
[edit] See also
[edit] External links
- 2012hoax.org, a wiki dedicated to debunking the miscellaneous weird ideas people have about 2012.
- 2012: The End of the World? - a lite discussion and rebuttal of some of the more insane ideas.
- Stepnanie Pappas: End of the Earth Postponed – maybe the calculation is based on a mistake
[edit] Footnotes
- ↑ http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2007-03-27-maya-2012_n.htm
- ↑ The end of the world as we know it" prophecies
- ↑ http://www.apocalypse2012.com/
- ↑ 18,980 days being the lowest common multiple of 365 days (ignoring the more modern concept of leap years) and 260 days. 52 Haabs (analogous to years) and 72 Tzolk'ins.
- ↑ Mayan long count explained.
- ↑ http://www.skepdic.com/maya.html
- ↑ http://www.universetoday.com/95097/end-of-the-world-averted-new-archeological-find-proves-mayan-calendar-doesnt-end/
- ↑ That's the word Wikipedia uses, and I'm sure they know their stuff.
- ↑ Coe, Michael D. (1966). The Maya. Ancient peoples and places series, no. 52 (1st ed.). London: Thames & Hudson. ISBN 0500050619. OCLC 318157568
- ↑ Thus, the 2012 apocalypse will be brought about by two drunk pranksters with ropes and planks stashed in the back of their Skoda.
- ↑ http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread104094/pg1
- ↑ http://www.polereversal.com/
- ↑ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8S0bj76389U
- ↑ http://alignment2012.com/
- ↑ Planetary Alignments: Fact or Fiction?
- ↑ http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm
- ↑ I couldn't beat the Wikipedia phrasing.
- ↑ http://churchofcriticalthinking.org/countdown.html
- ↑ IMDB - 2012
- ↑ The Guardian - 2012: a cautionary tale about marketing
- ↑ His name is Gerald Celente, for the record.
- ↑ YouTube video of idiot.
- ↑ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZrM8G7Reik
- ↑ http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=128488
- ↑ http://www.wodensfolk.org.uk/prophecy.html
- ↑ http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/File:Capture_db4c8ea5e00b251868cba09e0bfcde5e352d20f7.png
- ↑ http://heathengods.com/temple/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php?viewmode=flat&topic_id=1906&forum=1
- ↑ http://www.london2012.com/
- ↑ http://monkeylogical.wordpress.com/2007/08/10/2012-cthulhus-in-the-house/