Bradley effect

From RationalWiki
Jump to: navigation, search
The touchy subject of

Race

link=:category:
Key concepts
Racism and racists
The Bradley effect refers to the sometimes significant discrepancy between voter opinion polls and actual election results when candidates are of different races.

Contents

[edit] Origins

It is named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls. Less commonly called the Wilder effect, it reflects a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided, or likely to vote for a black candidate, to make a show of how enlightened and progressive they are. Then on election day, in the privacy of the voting booth, they think "the hell with that" and choose the white candidate.

[edit] Cause

There is indeed a tendency for people to lie through their back teeth in surveys and opinion polls, particularly if a response would otherwise be frowned upon. This has to be taken into account by psychologists doing studies on sensitive subjects where, even though they're anonymous, people may outright lie, even as a form of denial. In the particular case of the Bradley effect, it is due to the risk of being perceived as a racist that people may claim support for a candidate of an ethnic minority.

[edit] Barack Obama

There has been recent discussion over whether Barack Obama is experiencing the Bradley effect. In some cases during the Democratic primaries, the Bradley effect was reversed, while in others it may have been a factor.[1][2] The difference between open and private polling may have also been a cause. However, some people still very publicly smear Obama because he's black.

[edit] See also

[edit] Footnotes

  1. http://people.iq.harvard.edu/~dhopkins/wilder13.pdf
  2. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/the_bradley_effect.html
Personal tools
Namespaces

Variants
Actions
Navigation
Community
Tools
support