Effects of global warming

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Global warming

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The effects of global warming will be many, varied and almost wholly negative.[1] Pretending global warming is not happening will not make it go away.

Contents

[edit] A rise in sea level

The most conservative prediction of sea level rise presently predicted is 9–88 cm (3.5–34.6 inches). This small rise would be enough cause significant disruption to coastal communities.[1]

There is a possibility, however, that the whole Greenland ice sheet would melt leading to a global rise of 7 m (23 ft). There is even a possibility that the West Antarctic ice sheet could melt raising sea levels by a further six meters (20 feet). Although the rest of the Antarctic is considered to be stable, if the entire Antarctic were to melt, this would raise sea levels by 62 meters (203 feet).[2] Although this isn't enough to turn the Earth into Waterworld, it's more than enough of a rise to render every major coastal city on the planet uninhabitable. Want a visualization? Say goodbye to Miami, NYC, New Orleans, Venice, Tokyo, Mumbai, and Shanghai.[3]

In addition to the rises in sea level caused by melting glaciers, sea level would also rise as a consequence of the thermal expansion of the warmer water.

[edit] More active weather systems

More energy in the atmosphere will lead to more active weather systems, with more frequent and more violent storms. More severe weather events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and hurricanes will be the result.[4] Hurricanes will become more severe and long-lived as the Earth warms, specifically due to the warming of the oceans. It is warm sea surface temperatures above 26 °C that are required for hurricanes to form, and to be able to sustain themselves because the heat that fuels hurricanes is from the latent heat of condensation.

[edit] Disturbed rainfall patterns

Rainfall patterns will be significantly disrupted with floods in some places and droughts in others. Regions closest to the equator (central Africa, Latin America, India, Southeast Asia, etc.) are more likely to face extreme vulnerability.[5]

[edit] Acidification of the oceans

The ocean has a limited capacity to dissolve carbon dioxide before it ceases to absorb any more thus leading to further warming. This would also cause great damage to fish stocks. The acidity (pH) of the ocean is currently ~8.0, slightly alkaline, and the earliest signs of increasing acidity (and temperature) is coral bleaching, where the photosynthetic mutualists in the coral die leading to the collapse of the coral reefs which are often described as the 'rainforests of the sea' due to the level of biodiversity.

[edit] Tipping points/feedback loops

There are many possible tipping points and feedback loops. For instance, if global warming causes the northern permafrost to melt this will release vast amounts of methane which will make the problem much worse. It is thought that a similar release of frozen methane hydrate from arctic ocean floors resulted in a runaway greenhouse effect at the end of the Permian period, which may have been a leading cause of the Permian mass extinction.

[edit] Spread of tropical diseases

As northern latitudes become warmer previously-rare tropical diseases will gain a foothold in more northern latitudes.[6] The World Health Organization has identified more than 30 new or resurgent diseases in the last three decades, the sort of explosion some experts say has not happened since the Industrial Revolution brought masses of people together in cities. Another report made by WHO in 2000 found that warming had caused malaria to spread from three districts in western Kenya to 13 and led to epidemics of the disease in Rwanda and Tanzania.[7] However, the relationship may not always be so simple -- one study demonstrated that warmer temperatures may increase the number of malarial parasites but also decrease the rate at which they become infectious.[8] In Sweden, cases of tick-borne encephalitis have risen in direct correlation to warmer winters. Asian tiger mosquitoes, the type that carry dengue fever, have been reported recently as far north as the Netherlands. Cholera, which thrives in warmer water, appeared in the newly warmed waters of South America in 1991 for the first time in the 20th century. “It swept from Peru across the continent and into Mexico, killing more than 10,000 people.”Once confined to land near the equator, West Nile Virus is now found as far north as Canada. Seven years ago, West Nile virus had never been seen in North America; today, it has “infected more than 21,000 people in the United States and Canada and killed more than 800.”[9]

Cold weather no longer kills ticks that carry Lyme disease. Ticks recently began spreading along the coastlines of Scandinavia, which formerly was too cold for them to survive. Cases of Lyme disease in the area have doubled since the late 1990s.[10]

[edit] Disruption of ocean currents

The disruption of ocean currents could shut down the Gulf Stream with unpredictable consequences. Melting of the ice sheets could result in a weakening of the thermohaline circulation[wp] as the Arctic and Antarctic Ocean's warm, decreasing the temperature difference and thus flow of heat as it's redistributed from the equatorial regions to the high latitudes.

It is believed that the collapse of the ocean currents may lead to extreme levels of ocean anoxia, because the currents are essential for carrying dissolved oxygen below 500 meters of depth. This may possibly mean wiping out the overwhelming majority of multi-celluar ocean life.

[edit] Habitat loss or change faster than animals can adapt

Temperature zones will move north and south too quickly for animals to follow or adapt to new habitats. The most extreme case is that of arctic habitats which will leave animals such as polar bears with no place to go. In 2007 Indonesia's environment minister has announced that scientific studies estimate about 2,000 of the country's lush tropical islands could disappear by 2030.[11] Deserts have already started increase in size toward higher latitudes, and are projected to increase in size by 10%-30% by the end of the 21st century.[12]

[edit] Loss of mountain glaciers exacerbating summer droughts

Mountain glaciers act as natural reservoirs, releasing winter snow as meltwater during the summer. Global warming will disrupt this system in two ways:

  • Global warming will melt the existing glaciers.[13]
  • More rain will fall instead of snow which will prevent the reformation of the glaciers.

The result of this will be more floods when it rains and droughts when it does not.[14]

[edit] Social effects of global warming

Global warming and the retreat of Arctic ice is already causing social repercussions for various nations. A good example of this is the battle for control of Hans Island. Hans Island is a barren, uninhabited chunk of rock fully two square kilometres in surface area that is bisected by the dividing line between the respective territories of Greenland and Canada.[15] In the past the sovereignty of this insignificant island was undisputed since it was economically worthless, but with summer pack ice ever retreating it may shortly be the case that control of Hans Island grants access to huge, untapped hydrocarbon deposits as well as control of shipping through the Nares Srait.

There has been considerable diplomatic tension between Canada and Denmark (who represent the interests of Greenland in all international affairs) over the sovereignty of the island. Both nations have made expeditions to the island to plant their respective flags, and assert their claim to the island. Like all good controversial issues, the battle for Hans Island has spawned a large number of parody sites on the Internet.[16][17]

[edit] Positive effects

Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke lays out the upside of global warming:

Global warming, like globalization, is good for the economy, and therefore humanity:
  • Rising water levels will force people to move, build new houses and spend more.
  • The struggling airline industry will be boosted by the increased amount of travel as people flee disaster zones.
  • Consumer spending will rise as there’s less concern about long-term savings.
  • Inflation will be curbed as excess US dollars are burned in wild fires.[18]

It should also be noted that global average temperatures were higher during the Jurassic period than they are today. This does not, unfortunately, mean that global warming will bring back the extinct dinosaurs. The currently living ones such as chickens, on the other hand, may evolve to fill the new niches. So if you want a world where your puny children are mere morsels for the almighty Cockasaurus Rex, trade in that SUV for a hummer.

[edit] See also

[edit] External links

[edit] Footnotes

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