Post hoc, ergo propter hoc
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc is a Latin phrase for "after this, therefore, because of this." The term refers to a rhetorical fallacy that because two events occurred in succession, the former event caused the latter event.[1][2]
In addressing a post hoc, ergo propter hoc argument, it is important to recognise that correlation does not equal causation.
Magical thinking is a form of post hoc, ergo propter hoc fallacy, in which superstitions are formed based on seeing patterns in a series of coincidences. For example, "these are my lucky trousers. Sometimes good things happen to me when I wear them."
Contents |
[edit] Form of the argument
- X happened before Y
- Therefore, X caused Y
[edit] Other examples
The rooster crows before sunrise, therefore the crowing rooster causes the sun to rise.
An example is the following statement: "In Romania, abortion was illegal under two decades of rule by the dictator Nicolae Ceausescu, and the country enjoyed one of the lowest breast cancer rates in the entire world during that time, far lower than comparable Western countries."[3] Just because the breast cancer rate went down does not mean that the illegality of abortions caused it.
Another example is the observation that, in the past 200 years, the average global temperature has been growing at the same rate the number of pirates has been falling.
[edit] See also
[edit] Footnotes
- ↑ Glenn, Cheryl; Loretta Gray. Hodges' Harbrace Handbook. 16th ed. Thomson: Boston, 2007: p. 480.
- ↑ http://rucus.ru.ac.za/~urban/docs/baloney.html
- ↑ http://www.conservapedia.com/Abortion