RationalWiki:Predictions

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The RationalWiki Predictions page is a simple tool to allow users to make long-term predictions, in the spirit of Longbets.org. Predictions should generally relate to the mission, or be generally relevant to politics, science, society, or economics. Once a prediction is settled, it will be archived as correct or incorrect.

Vote up (green) if you agree with the prediction, down (red) if you disagree, or meh (amber) if you're unsure/don't care.

When adding predictions, try to present statements in a way that makes them easy to judge as true or false when the excrement hits the rotating blades.

[edit] Current bets

Vote Proposed Bet Proposed by Date
upneutraldown
3
The British Election in 2015 will end in a hung parliament, leading to either a minority government or another coalition. Serocco 16 April 2015
upneutraldown
0
Justin Trudeau will replace Thomas Mulcair as the Leader of the Opposition after the 2015 Canadian general election. Serocco 28 March 2015
upneutraldown
7
The missing Malaysian airliner will not be found in 2015 AgingHippie 28 March 2015
upneutraldown
0
Hillary Clinton will not win the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2016 presidential election. FuzzyCatPotato 18 March 2015
upneutraldown
9
Jeb Bush will not win the Republican Party's nomination for the 2016 presidential election. Serocco 18 March 2015
upneutraldown
-8
RationalWiki will experience a May 2011 level HCM by the middle of 2016. miekal 10 January 2015
upneutraldown
12
Despite international support, the Umbrella Revolution will fail to both achieve universal suffrage for Hong Kong and force C.Y. Leung to resign by 2016. Noir LeSable 30 November 2014
upneutraldown
7
There will be another Scottish independence vote within 15 years, which will either succeed or be closer than the September 2014 vote was. Miekal 23 November 2014
upneutraldown
23
NBC's prediction that all Americans will be implanted with RFID chips by, or during 2017, will not come true. TemplarJLS 20 November 2014
upneutraldown
4
The next British monarch will be Prince William, either through his father dying before Elizabeth II or through him not ascending to the throne for some other reason. Miekal 20 November 2014
upneutraldown
6
The budget deficit will increase more per year (in inflation-adjusted dollars) for the last two years of Obama's term (where Republicans control both Houses) than the six where they didn't. Ikanreed 17 November 2014
upneutraldown
-8
A small ("small" meaning significantly smaller than France or Germany, but not micronation-small) nation in Western Europe will undergo a major political revolution in the next decade. 141.134.75.236 30 October 2014
upneutraldown
-28
Ebola becomes pandemic before the end of 2015. JRock1203 16 October 2014
upneutraldown
13
Marijuana will be legalised for medicinal form in the US nearly nationwide by 2018. JRock1203 14 October 2014
upneutraldown
-18
Kim Jong Un will not be leader of North Korea by the end of 2015. Miekal 6 October 2014
upneutraldown
-2
During the next year, ground troops of the United States Army or Marines will not engage in combat with ISIS to any significant degree. Marlow 29 September 2014
upneutraldown
10
The next President of the United States will be a woman. Father Vivian O'Blivion 24 July 2014
upneutraldown
1
In the 2014 NZ election the alternately libertarian/"tough-on-crime" ACT party will receive less than 2% of the party vote, but will win the seat of Epsom. In 2017 another general election will be held, and ACT will at least double its proportion of the party vote over 2014. PeterL 24 July 2014
upneutraldown
-15
The Kurds will achieve independence from Iraq before 2016. Serocco 7 July 2014
upneutraldown
16
Nick Clegg will not be the Deputy Prime Minister after the 2015 UK General Election. Serocco 7 July 2014
upneutraldown
1
Malcolm Turnbull will again be Liberal Party leader prior to the next Australian general election. PeterL 1 July 2014
upneutraldown
11
Tony Abbott will not win re-election as Prime Minister of Australia. Serocco 26 June 2014
upneutraldown
7
The New Democratic Party will return to its third party status after the 2015 election. Serocco 22 June 2014
upneutraldown
10
Hillary Clinton will not become President in 2016. Serocco 22 June 2014
upneutraldown
-9
Stephen Harper will remain as Canadian Prime Minister after the 2015 election. Serocco 10 June 2014
upneutraldown
21
The Democrats will retain control of the White House in 2016, but Congress will remain divided as is or be fully Republican (Senate at least 51-49). Miekal 3 June 2014
upneutraldown
-7
UKIP will take over as the 3rd main party in the UK following the 2015 general election. Psygremlin 24 May 2014
upneutraldown
10
No horse will win the Triple Crown in the next 5 years. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 28 January 2014
upneutraldown
40
In the next five years Bitcoin's value will drop to zero (or a few cents) and remain there indefinitely. Marlow 16 January 2014
upneutraldown
25
North Korea will either be forced to liberalize (China-style), or implode by the end of the decade. Osaka Sun 16 January 2014
upneutraldown
38
The MarsOne "settlers" (if they ever launch) will not be the first people to reach Mars. (Possibilities for the actual first are many — NASA, Roscosmos, ESA, JAXA, CNSA, SpaceX, etc, or any combination of the above.) ZooGuard 14 November 2013
upneutraldown
55
The MarsOne "settlers" will never leave the ground. ("Never" defined as "as long as RW exists" or 2050, whichever comes sooner.) ZooGuard 14 November 2013
upneutraldown
57
Regardless of who the Democratic Party's candidate for the 2016 Presidential Election is, they will win both the electoral college and popular vote. Psygremlin 28 October 2013
upneutraldown
-7
Rick Snyder will make a serious run at the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 as the disaster of the shutdown pokes the party to move to the center. PowderSmokeAndLeather 7 October 2013
upneutraldown
-7
Qatar will not host the 2022 FIFA World Cup in any form, winter or summer. Man of Perspective 4 October 2013
upneutraldown
-38
Chris Christie will win the Republican nomination for President in 2016. Wehpudicabok 26 September 2013
upneutraldown
-56
The 2016 nominees will be Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton. Between now and then, Rand Paul will successfully remake his image from the ground up and will run as far away from the Tea Party as he can get and run as a moderate Republican voice of reason and peace a la Mark Hatfield. Clinton's running mate will be Joe Manchin. The Clinton-Manchin ticket will attempt to run against Rand Paul from the right. They will fail. Secret Squirrel 23 September 2013
upneutraldown
-44
There will be a high-profile assassination attempt on Obama before the end of his second term. Whether or not it fails, it will be followed by increased white supremacist violence. EddieMonah 26 August 2013
upneutraldown
11
The RSA encryption algorithm will be broken before 2020. Most of the world go into panic mode because of lack of time and incentive to update encryption software before it's broken. k61824 24 August 2013
upneutraldown
19
There will be no direct military-to-military confrontation (military killing militia/civilians don't count) associated with land disputes for both Senkaku and Spratly Islands until end of 2018. k61824 24 August 2013
upneutraldown
-39
NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden will die sometime before December 31st, 2018, under mysterious circumstances that suggest the US killed him. (For the record, I hope that I am wrong.) Ochotonaprinceps 1 July 2013
upneutraldown
-39
A Republican will win the electoral college in 2016 and become POTUS. The Tea Party movement will vanish within days of the inauguration. TheLateGatsby 5 June 2013
upneutraldown
4
Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2016. Prodigal 7 April 2013
upneutraldown
8
A chemtrailer (or a group of them) will cause a security incident at an airport, leading to a delayed flight or diverted landing, by December 31, 2015. Sophie Wilder 14 March 2013
upneutraldown
40
Kim Jong-un will remain in power until his death. Could be a really long bet. Seonookim 12 March 2013
upneutraldown
33
By January 1, 2020, at least one genetically engineered animal will be approved for human consumption in the United States. Tweenk 6 January 2013
upneutraldown
40
Bobby Jindal will run in the 2016 Republican primary. Tyrannis 13 November 2012
upneutraldown
-131
A third party (most likely Libertarian) president will get elected in one of this decade's elections. ColbertFan 5 March 2011
upneutraldown
86
Obama will not fulfill his promise to close Guantanamo Bay. P-Foster 4 January 2011
upneutraldown
17
The Lib Dems will be almost wiped out as a political force in the next UK election. Bob M 19 December 2010
upneutraldown
34
Assange will be found not guilty of rape. Bob M 19 December 2010
upneutraldown
1
After the next UK general election, Ed Miliband will not become the Prime Minister. Dalek 18 December 2010

[edit] Results

(Prediction win to fail ratio - 34:34!)
(Vote win to fail ratio[1] - 47:21!)
Vote Proposed Bet Proposed by Date of Bet End of Bet Result
3
Benjamin Netanyahu will not be the Prime Minister of Israel after the March 2015 elections. Serocco 1 January 2015 18 March 2015 Wrong[2]
2
Australia will win the 2015 Cricket World Cup. Without losing a match. Psygremlin 1 February 2015 27 February 2015 Wrong[3]
30
Contrary to the bullshit conspiracy theorists are throwing around, Americans will not be implanted with mandatory microchips by the end of 2014. TemplarJLS 6 October 2014 1 January 2015 Right
39
Joseph Kony will not be caught by December 31, 2014. Man of Perspective 11 April 2013 1 January 2015 Right
3
On the day Peter Shumlin ceases to be the governor of Vermont, the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant will still be operating. Tweenk 28 March 2012 29 December 2014 Wrong[4]
-70
Conservapedia will be taken down by Andrew Schlafly before the next Conservapedia Day (Nov. 21, 2014). LArron 21 November 2013 21 November 2014 Wrong
1
The 2014 Oakland Raiders will join the 2008 Detroit Lions in the NFL 0-16 club. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 30 October 2014 20 November 2014 Wrong[5]
-4
Catalonia will hold some form of vote related to independence from Spain by the end of the year. A Yes vote will not result in independence. Miekal 14 October 2014 9 November 2014 Right[6]
-10
John Boehner will resign as Speaker of the House if he does not get a Republican majority in the Senate in 2014. Serocco 7 July 2014 4 November 2014 Wrong
-4
Rick Scott will lose to Charlie Crist in the 2014 Florida election. Serocco 3 July 2014 4 November 2014 Wrong
-6
The Republicans will get a majority in the United States Senate in 2014. Serocco 3 June 2014 4 November 2014 Right
-8
The Democratic Party will retake the House of Representatives in 2014. Osaka Sun 6 October 2013 4 November 2014 Wrong
20
Marijuana will be legalized in two or more additional US states (WA and CO don't count) before it is legalized anywhere in Canada. This could be a long bet. Ochotonaprinceps 12 March 2013 4 November 2014 Right[7]
-3
In the 2014 Senate elections, Democrats lose South Dakota (Johnson) and Arkansas (Pryor), while they (or an independent) pick up Maine (Collins) (note that this doesn't mean that they will only lose those seats and/or that they will only pick up those seats). Mr. Anon 28 November 2012 4 November 2014 Wrong[8]
-12
The San Francisco Giants will win the 2014 World Series. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 28 January 2014 29 October 2014 Right
37
Rob Ford will not be re-elected as mayor of Toronto in 2014, either through the escalation of the video scandal or the entrance of a centre-right candidate(s) to intentionally fragment his support. Osaka Sun 25 September 2013 27 October 2014 Right
5
Catalonia will manage to hold its independence referendum in November, but Spain will not recognize the result if it is a yes and either way none of the issues that led to this will be resolved. Miekal 4 October 2014 14 October 2014 Wrong[9]
10
When the SCOTUS rules on the Tenth Circuit same-sex marriage ban cases, it will rule in favor of gay rights. 63.224.252.18 30 June 2014 6 October 2014 Right[10]
18
Scottish independence will not be achieved in 2014. Serocco 3 June 2014 18 September 2014 Right
0
Russian military forces will not enter any part of Ukraine (aside from Crimea obviously) within the next year. Marlow 22 March 2014 27 August 2014 Wrong
0
The wave of protests sweeping the Middle East and North Africa will inspire a popular uprising against the US-backed Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki, putting Obama in a real hard place. P-Foster 26 February 2011 10 June 2014 Right (with caveat)[11]
29
Before the end of 2014, at least four additional US states that, as of the time of this prediction, currently ban same-sex marriage, will have their state laws suspended by federal judges (as with Utah and Oklahoma, currently). Alabama will not be among these. Ochotonaprinceps 15 January 2014 13 May 2014 Right[12]
4
Russians in Crimea will decide to join the Russian Federation on 16 March, 2014. Autumnus Linnus 15 March 2014 16 March 2014 Right
5
In 2013, there will be at least one serious, in-person, direct attempt by gun nuts on the life of a US political figure, mayor or above, with pro-gun control views. Furthermore, there will be "XYZ Shooting" Truthers posting within 24 hours on the Internet, coming up with conspiracies invoking false flag operations to further Obama's plans to take away all our guns. Ochotonaprinceps 1 June 2013 1 January 2014 Wrong
-15
At some point before the end of 2013 a serious attempt by members of the community will be made to fork RW. PeterL 16 November 2012 1 January 2014 Wrong
77
North Korea will not seriously invade the South at any point during the next three years. Bob M 23 December 2010 1 January 2014 Right[13]
12
Tim Tebow will not start another game as quarterback for the remainder of his NFL Career. k61824 3 September 2013 30 December 2013 Right[14]
6
Australia will regain the the Ashes in the upcoming series. Psygremlin 31 October 2013 17 December 2013 Right[15]
-10
It will be discovered that Joseph Kony has been dead since before the Kony 2012 video were made. Revolverman 11 April 2013 20 November 2013 Wrong[16]
2
September 2013 will overtake the place of July 2013 as the second month with the least number of edits on Conservapedia. Bill Rawls 24 August 2013 14 November 2013 Right[17]
3
Los Angeles Dodgers will not win the 2013 World Series, even if they become the NL Champions. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 3 October 2013 18 October 2013 Right
-4
The Republicans will "win" the shutdown, eventually forcing the Democrats to compromise with them and defund Obamacare. brxbrx 7 October 2013 16 October 2013 Wrong[18]
5
The October 2013 U.S. federal shutdown will not fully end before the 20th of October. (Note that the U.S. will not have quite run out of money by then, even though the Treasury's so-called "extraordinary measures" will have ended.) PeterL 3 October 2013 16 October 2013 Wrong[18]
-3
The United States will hit its debt ceiling on the 17th of October, however, President Obama will order the Treasury to disregard the ceiling. Man of Perspective 3 October 2013 16 October 2013 Wrong[18]
23
Barack Obama will have to be present at one more mass shooting memorial before the end of his second term. Osaka Sun 10 January 2013 23 September 2013 Right[19]
1
The Los Angeles Dodgers will lose the NL West title by at least 5 games. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 20 January 2013 20 September 2013 Wrong[20]
1
Tony Abbott will win the next Australian election. Man of Perspective 6 April 2013 7 September 2013 Right
8
Tim Tebow will not start a game at quarterback for the Patriots during the 2013-14 NFL season. PowderSmokeAndLeather 1 July 2013 31 August 2013 Right
4
England will retain the Ashes in 2013. Voxhumana 11 March 2013 25 August 2013 Right[21]
-6
Full civil marriage rights will be extended to same-sex couples under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government. Dalek 18 December 2010 17 July 2013 Right[22]
-1
Zynga will be bought out by Facebook by June 2013. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 5 November 2012 1 July 2013 Wrong
2
The United States Supreme Court will strike down DOMA and Prop 8. PowderSmokeAndLeather 15 June 2013 26 June 2013 Right
6
Tim Tebow will never start a game for the New York Jets. TheoryOfPractice 17 December 2012 29 April 2013 Right
-1
The next pope will be from South America. PeterL 11 March 2013 13 March 2013 Right[23]
0
No deal will be reached on the fiscal cliff by tomorrow (Dec. 31). The GOP effectively taxes the entire country, and history repeats itself. Osaka Sun 30 December 2012 1 January 2013 Wrong
12
In 2012, the Supreme Court will rule on Perry v. Schwarzenegger Perry v. Brown, and find laws banning same-sex marriage unconstitutional. Blue 5 January 2011 1 January 2013 Wrong[24]
-21
All the Mayan bullshit slated for December 2012 will actually come to pass. Edgerunner76 01 November 2012 22 December 2012 Wrong
11
Wisconsin-style union-busting and protests will occur in a number of other states as the looming state budget crisis becomes the number one issue. Nebuchadnezzar 23 February 2011 11 December 2012 Right[25]
-3
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have at least a Tropical Storm Alpha. Edgerunner76 1 November 2012 30 November 2012 Wrong
-6
The Atlanta Falcons will go undefeated in the regular season. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 5 November 2012 11 November 2012 Wrong[26]
12
The Democrats will maintain control of the Senate after the 2012 U.S. elections, even if it requires the VP's casting vote. (This includes any independents that caucus with the Dems, such as Bernie Sanders and possibly Angus King.) rpeh 16 July 2012 6 November 2012 Right
4
In the 2012 U.S. elections, Obama will win a second term, the GOP will win a majority in the Senate, and while the outcome in the House is uncertain, it will be within fifteen seats of an even split between the two major caucuses. AD 09 February 2012 6 November 2012 Wrong[27]
56
Barack Obama will win the 2012 US Presidential Election. SuspectedReplicant 23 December 2010 6 November 2012 Right
-4
Greece will leave the eurozone by mid-2012, placing the world into another recession. Osaka Sun 12 May 2012 1 September 2012 Wrong
0
The Affordable Care Act will be struck down, along with the entirety of the law, kicking health care reform back another generation. Mr. Anon 1 April 2012 28 June 2012 Wrong
-4
The Supreme Court will strike down the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act, but will not strike down the entire law, when it renders its decision in June 2012. Blue 15 November 2011 28 June 2012 Wrong
14
The Republican primary for the 2012 US Presidential election will come down to Santorum and Romney; Romney will win this but will fail to defeat Obama, and will be attacked by the Religious Right while he's at it. PeterL 16 January 2012 10 April 2012 Wrong[28]
-26
Hillary Clinton will the Democratic VP nominee in 2012, replacing Joe Biden. It will be a poorly kept secret that the move is to set her up to run for President in 2016. MDB 21 December 2010 3 April 2012 Wrong
-24
Rick Perry will be the Republican nominee for president in the 2012 election. P-Foster 6 July 2011 19 January 2012 Wrong[29]
34
The 2012 Republican nomination for President will go to a man. And in order to be a little bolder: Sarah Palin won't even run. Röstigraben 19 December 2010 4 January 2012 Right[29]
-34
The 2012 Republican nomination for President will go to a woman. (Edit: this doesn't have to be Sarah Palin!) Blue 18 December 2010 4 January 2012 Wrong[29]
7
At least two more autocracies will be overthrown (besides Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, of course), by year's end 2011. Bahrain, Yemen, Iran, or a wild card could be in the mix. Blue 23 February 2011 1 January 2012 Wrong[30]
6
Herman Cain might not get the nod to lead the GOP in the next election, but he will not pull out of the race because of allegations of sexual abuse. B♭maj7 9 November 2011 3 December 2011 Wrong
-6
Citizendium will not continue beyond October 2011. FreeThought 22 December 2010 1 November 2011 Wrong
-24
North Korea will invade South Korea in a full-scale 2011 summer offensive. Thousands die before North Korea finally withdraws back to its border. FreeThought 19 December 2010 1 September 2011 Wrong[31]
4
Some way, somehow, under whatever necessary pretext, the U.S.'s debt ceiling will be raised or sidestepped before the deadline on August 2. ListenerX 12 July 2011 2 August 2011 Right
6
In regards to the case of RobSmith versus User:Conservative, Ken will emerge triumphant, and Rob will either: 1. leave in disgust or 2. get dressed down and have his rights removed by Andy for airing dirty laundry in public where an important contributor is concerned. P-Foster 11 July 2011 31 July 2011 Right[32]
12
RationalWiki will have a crisis of conscience/mission mid-2011, which will result in a major refactoring of the guidelines. Human 5 January 2011 17 May 2011 Right[33]
2
Labour will win the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election by more than 5% over the Lib Dems, with the Tories in a distant 3rd place. SuspectedReplicant 12 January 2011 13 January 2011 Right[34]
5
TK is not coming back to Conservapedia. (Speculation: Andy avoided a big ugly show by asking TK to let Andy change his password or blocked him from the site in some other way....) P-Foster 5 January 2011 17 December 2010[35] Right (excluding speculation)[36]

[edit] Footnotes

  1. It is counted as a win if the total vote is at or above +1 for a right prediction or at or below -1 for a wrong prediction. (If neutral it is also counted as a fail.)
  2. Israel Elections: Netanyahu Victory Could Stall Peace Process, Analysts Say
  3. Lost to New Zealand in the preliminary round. But they did go on to win the Cup.
  4. Nukes are expensive, unfortunately.
  5. Derek Carr-led Raiders shock Chiefs to end losing streak at 16, ESPN
  6. Calatans chose overwhelmingly to separate from Spain in a 'symbolic' referendum.
  7. Alaska, Oregon and DC made it first.
  8. A Sister of Maine, losing? Nah.
  9. Catalonia backtracked on a snap independence vote.
  10. In a very interesting fashion.
  11. Depending on your definition of "popular uprising."
  12. Virginia (13 February), Texas (26 February), Michigan (21 March), Idaho (13 May), and more.
  13. They haven't. That we know of.
  14. Goodbye!
  15. Australia won the 3rd Test by 150 runs, to take an unbeatable 3-0 lead in the series.
  16. It appears Kony is seriously ill with something and is trying to guarantee his safety in surrender negotiations.
  17. October was worse than September.
  18. 18.0 18.1 18.2 Ceiling lifted hours before default. The Republicans did not achieve their original goals.
  19. Not even a year in.
  20. Won by 11
  21. Both men and women.
  22. Received royal assent, brought into force for both England and Wales in 2014.
  23. Pope Francis I was formerly the Archbishop of Buenos Aires.
  24. 2012 came and went without a ruling.
  25. Michigan.
  26. Graham, Saints hand Falcons first loss of season, NFL.com
  27. President right, both House and Senate wrong.
  28. Newt Gingrich stayed in longer, and Ron Paul stayed in until the end
  29. 29.0 29.1 29.2 Mitt "That hair!" Romney.
  30. A few dictators teetered, but no more fell.
  31. Summer came and went without a North Korean invasion.
  32. RobSmith goes toe-to-toe with Ken
  33. The New Wiki Order
  34. Constituency profile: Oldham East and Saddleworth, The Guardian
  35. No, really.
  36. TK's death
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