RationalWiki talk:Predictions

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2024 Senate[edit]

I was wrong about the Senate this year, but look at this godawful map for 2024 and tell me the Dems will keep their majority:

2024 United States Senate elections retirements map.svg

🎄Chef Moosolini’s Ristorante Italiano🎄Ask about our holiday specials! 19:48, 18 December 2022 (UTC)

It's a longshot, but victory is not impossible for Democrats. All three of the red state senators are popular in their respective states, while conversely Cruz is unpopular enough to put Texas into play (if Texas's voting patterns continue as they did in the last few cycles, then if Cruz underperforms the Republican presidential nominee by even three points then the race is very much winnable for Democrats). Granted, it needs a lot to go right, Tester and Manchin have yet to announce if they're running for reelection, and they'll probably need weak opponents as well (although Montana has a good chance of running Rosendale again). In the last two presidential elections only Susan Collins won in a state that voted for the opposite party on the presidential level. Arizona will be the real wild card here, as Sinema's defection does throw that race into chaos, but if everything goes right for the Democrats, which I say is maybe a 5% chance, then it is possible for them to expand their majority in 2024. Plutocow (talk) 20:09, 18 December 2022 (UTC)

Gaza entry definitions[edit]

Northern portion of Gaza: as defined by the evacuation zone.

Voluntarily pull out: i.e. not forced out by military strength especially from other entities than Hamas. If they pull out in anticipation of military strength it's voluntary. Occupation the likes we see in the West Bank wouldn't count as pulling out just based on the fact parts of it are more locally governed. Chillpilled (talk) 09:48, 1 November 2023 (UTC)

2024 UK election[edit]

(Or possibly early 2025)

There will be at least one political upset during the election and at least one 'confusion' afterwards. Anna Livia (talk) 18:31, 2 February 2024 (UTC)

Constitutional crisis[edit]

Count Binface/Lord Buckethead/another or several of their ilk gets elected.

The 1313 Statute forbidding Bearing of Armour is invoked and constitutional disagreements arise. Anna Livia (talk) 18:31, 2 February 2024 (UTC)

Scotland-Norway dispute[edit]

The Shetlands and Orkneys decide to negotiate their legal return to Norway. Anna Livia (talk) 18:31, 2 February 2024 (UTC)