Black Swan
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Black Swan
Based on your comments I have splashed out nearly £6 ordering this from Amazon. It better be worth it. :)
It is. I'm sure Taleb would hate me for saying it, but I don't think you can call yourself a rationalist unless you've ingested the info in that book. Of course, the concept isn't difficult to grasp - I've always said Yudkowsky explains it better and more succinctly - but it's full of enough additional tidbits and ideas that give you a fresh perspective on chance. He's a bit idiosyncratic and sometimes repetitive (if you're just out to explain Black Swan Theory, you can do it in a fraction of the pages), but once you get beyond that it's excellent.