United Kingdom general election, 2015
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The 2015 general election will take place in the United Kingdom on 7 May, where parliament will take a full three months off before the actual election to focus, not on governing, but campaigning, because priorities.
This is probably the most unpredictable election in decades; the three biggest parties are all rightfully loathed and several voters have branched towards other groups who'll almost certainly tip the balance of power.
So, what's caused all this relative instability in the political consciousness? Simple: everyone is shit. The Conservatives are really the same as ever under Prime Minister David Cameron; Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats have lost much of their credibility after turning into lapdogs for the Conservatives; and Opposition Leader Ed Miliband has become likely the most unpopular and ineffectual leader in the history of the Labour Party.[1]
Their general malaise has caused several otherwise-sensible people to consider protest votes for UKIP under Nigel Farage, which is taking racist wingnut votes from the Conservatives. Finally, the SNP under Nicola Sturgeon has increased its membership after the failed independence referendum; they will likely devour the rest of Scotland and chip away at Labour's hold on the north. What happens after that is unknown.
All that is known is that Tony Blair's ten years, however controversial, have ensured the oldest political party in the world - even while in power - can never again win a majority in the 21st century.[2] All the parties that put up candidates in 2010 are running again, although the British National Party, which followed up its best ever election in 2010 by tearing itself apart, has only eight candidates,[3] seven fewer than the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.[4]
Contents |
[edit] Contenders
[edit] The big two-and-a-half
- Conservative Party
- Leader: David Cameron, the incumbent Prime Minister. He has been the leader since 2005, and was the Leader of the Opposition from 2005 through 2010.
- Status: Currently the largest party in parliament, but short of a majority, so they formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats.
- Pros: Their 303 seats provide a very big cushion for whatever losses they do receive. All they need is an extra 23 seats for a full majority. Attempts to appeal to the base have already begun with a pledge to overturn the ban on fox hunting with dogs. Plus, their opposition is Ed Miliband.
- Cons: Slashing popular programs and cutting benefits, while increasing illegal surveillance on citizens, passing brazenly anti-immigrant, anti-women and anti-student bills, and trying to take advantage of the War on Terror by antagonizing whistleblowers and apprehending suspected dissidents. In short, every bit the Tory party you knew them to be. Oh, and David Cameron.
- Prospects: Their all-around distastefulness may very well prompt voters to remove many of their MPs from their seats. Economic recovery may yet save them as long as no-one catches on that their policy of austerity prolonged the recession.
- Liberal Democrats
- Leader: Nick Clegg, the incumbent Deputy Prime Minister, who has led the party since 2007.
- Status: Currently in a coalition government with the Conservatives, with several of their MPs serving as ministers in Cameron's cabinet. With their 56 seats, they need a grand total of 270 more in order to reach a government threshold.
- Pros: Experience of watching power at close quarters without actually having any. Individual MPs are quite nice on a personal level, which may help their survival as a party. Many hope dumping Clegg will dump their queasiness and help their future chances. A good track record in local government might translate into general election support.
- Cons: Being "not the other two" doesn't work out when you're in the government, it turns out. They threw away three quarters of their support by throwing away three quarters of (what used to be) their policies, i.e. by colluding with the Tories and capitulating on their promises while in government. The good track record in local government has never managed to translate into general election support.
- Prospects: Collapse in opinion poll support to single figures looks disastrous, but many incumbent MPs will hang on. Chances of the Tory-LibDem coalition continuing in the next government are slim. A Labour-LibDem coalition isn't impossible, but would outrage a lot of Labour supporters.
- Labour Party
- Leader: Ed Miliband, the incumbent Leader of the Opposition and head of the party since 2010.
- Status: The second largest party in parliament, with 257 seats on hold and needing an extra 69 in order to reach a government threshold.
- Pros: Uhm, less awful than the Conservatives?
- Cons: Still awful in their own right, thanks to the vestiges of New Labour permeating the mindset of the party. Can the opposition sweep back into power with the same bunch who got thrown out five years ago? Oh, and Ed Miliband. Really, it cannot be overstated - Ed Fucking Miliband.
- Prospects: Still blamed for the financial problems of 2008 onwards, but not enough to seriously damage them these days. Will end up as the largest party.
[edit] The not-so-big four
- United Kingdom Independence Party
- Leader: Nigel Farage, who had two stints as party chief - first from 2006–2009, then from 2010-onwards.
- Status: Surging popularity due to their racist peddling, anti-immigration ideas, anti-EU sentiment, and hatred of welfare, which led to two former Conservatives (Carswell and Reckless) switching to UKIP and surviving by-elections that were triggered by their leaving the Tories.
- Pros: Will take votes from the Tories. Despite having elevated the gaffe to an art form, gaffes don't seem to put a dent in their support.
- Cons: Take the Tea Party, superimpose English accents over their voices, and voila. Also influenced the national discourse on immigration and the EU, having prompted Labour and the coalition to adopt anti-immigrant policies as a knee-jerk reaction. Their emphasis on populist immigration issues also masks some truly awful social and economic policies - straight up GOP levels of atrocity, really.
- Prospects: Despite support averaging about 15%, will only win a handful of seats, and will steal support from many conservatives. In the case of a hung parliament where UKIP win a substantial number of seats, they may conceivably enter a coalition or some sort of deal with the Tories.
- Green Party of England and Wales (and Green Party of Scotland)
- Leader: Natalie Bennett
- Status: One seat, and it isn't held by their leader. Will a late surge in membership translate into a late surge in votes?
- Pros: Pro-welfare, pro-NHS, anti-cuts, anti-tuition fees. Their only MP, Caroline Lucas, is popular.
- Cons: Will have to defend their less-than-wonderful record at Brighton, the only large place they control (most notoriously, being one of the worst-performing local authorities for, of all things, recycling). Natalie Bennett has terrible debating skills. The party is routinely ignored by the media, leaving the public largely unaware of their policies (other than, you know, the environment or something). Despite their appealing social and economics policies, they are unlikely to overcome their reputation as (1) a one-issue party, and (2) a complete non-contender any time soon.
- Prospects: Caroline Lucas may well survive, but if so she'll be alone in Parliament again.
- Scottish National Party
- Leader: Nicola Sturgeon, the incumbent First Minister of Scotland, who became the party chief after Alex Salmond's resignation in 2014 (following the failed referendum on Scottish independence).
- Status: With their enormous presence in Edinburgh, they run Scotland almost wholly unchecked, and they're pushing for more autonomous rule.
- Pros: Anti-austerity and slightly more left-leaning than Labour or the coalition. Losing 2014's independence referendum seems to have only fired them up.
- Cons: Their predicted large increase in votes won't be at Conservatives expense, so Labour may deal with the possibility of a coalition government if it gets the most seats without a majority.
- Prospects: Will win at least twenty seats and could wangle large concessions from a small-majority government.
- Plaid Cymru
- Leader: Leanne Wood
- Pros: Social democratic and eco-friendly, which is more than can be said for Labour or the coalition.
- Cons: Having failed to capitalize on rampant nationalism elsewhere, the Party of Wales has its work cut out.
- Prospects: No change, despite a change of leader.
[edit] The debates
After months of endless haggling about whether to have debates, and what form they should take, things finally got underway with an initial not-really-a-debate: Cameron and Miliband being interviewed by the same two journalists. Nothing much was cleared up except that Miliband turned out to be a human being rather than the hopeless wonk he'd been painted as. The first week of April saw the first main debate, with seven party leaders all talking at once. Despite this being Cameron's idea, it ended up working against him, but for nobody in particular: four different opinion polls declared four different winners.[5] The party leaders mostly acted in character: Nigel Farage was the odious, smooth-talking xenophobe, Nick Clegg the hapless Mr Reasonable, etc. Ed Miliband resurrected Ronald Reagan's "there you go again" quote from 1980, which was a bit of a strange moment. If anyone came out on top, it was Nicola Sturgeon; such a pity that a) her party is only running in one part of the country and b) she isn't even a candidate. Nick Griifin, former leader of the BNP, sat watching at home, drinking cheap gin and wailing "I coulda been a contender!"[6]
Next up was the one David Cameron wasn't invited to didn't want to go to. Much the same as the previous one, it was worth a look for the part where Nigel Farage complained about the audience not liking what he said. And the three female party leaders had a group hug. You wouldn't have got Margaret Thatcher and Barbara Castle doing that.
[edit] See also
[edit] Footnotes
- ↑ Aside from Michael Foot, of course.
- ↑ The Tories can’t win majorities – they should back PR
- ↑ General Election 2015: The BNP has almost vanished from British politics
- ↑ OMRLP's candidates list
- ↑ Who won the debate? Four snap polls disagree – and show four winners
- ↑ allegedly, m'lud.