Essay:Why Texas will never flip blue

Texas is a state, that, as of the 2019 estimate, has exactly 29 million people. It currently has 36 seats, but that will become 38 come January 3, 2023, and the start of the 118th Congress. Their map was sued, but with a 9-0 GOP Supreme Court, let's face it, it'll be upheld. The map is currently 24-13, with a singular tossup in the 15th district. That seems soft, but there is an evil undertone.

It was a racial gerrymander. That's why Alabama is also being sued. 6-1 isn't too unreasonable for a Trump +25.5 state even in 2020, but the shear fact that it crams blacks in just the 7th district, both in the last map and the new one, is why it's getting sued. This is due to packing Birmingham and Montgomery with western Alabama. Also, remember Texas went just Trump +5.6. Really, it should be closer then the current 23-13, which should be 24-14 or 25-13 in the next Congress. However, with them being stuck in DC, and with with them threatening to arresting Democrats over it, it could lead to, well...

Voter suppression
Texas has passed multiple laws restricting Democrats from voting. They are being sued, but the lawsuits will likely fail. Essentially, they are trying to make it so Texas can never go blue. But it hasn't for a while. Not since 1976. A once solid blue state, it narrowly flipped to Hoover in 1928, giving him a 3.7% margin of victory. But Dems would get their revenge as in 1932, the largest blue margin was recorded with FDR winning by 76.7%. However, Eisenhower won it, by 6.4% in 1952 and 11.3% in 1956.

However, it went back blue, albeit narrowly, throughout the sixties. Of course Nixon won it in 1972, but 1976, when Carter won the state of by 3.2%, would be the last for now. And Texas Republicans will attempt anything to prevent that.

To be fair, Georgia and Alabama are just a few other states proposing this. But honestly it's scary to see how fast this is unfolding.

Trump fluke?
Virginia voted blue for four years in a row. Two due to very strong blue years, two due to anti Trumpism (hence Clinton won by 5.3% in 2016 and Biden by 10.1% in 2020). But as we saw in the 2021 governor election, Glenn Youngkin won by 1.9%. The first Republican victory in the state in 12 years, it also resulted in a House flip. Texas used to be a very strong Republican state, but it narrowed due to anti Trump Republicans voting blue. Could that happen again? It's very possible. (This is also why, despite going Biden +13.5, Colorado isn't solid blue,. It's likely blue.) This could save the Texas Republicans...without the lawsuits.

Also...
Remember that South Dakota never voted blue in a presidential election since 1964. Despite that, for a while it had Democratic senators, even as recently as the 113th Congress (at points, including the 108th Congress, even two), a Democratic representative as recently as the 111th Congress, and got close in presidential elections. Ford only won it by 1.5%, Bush by 6.3% in 1988 (which is more blue then the nation-at-large by 1.4%), and 3.5% in 1992 and 1996. Hell McCain only won it by 8.4% in 2008. A state can get close to flipping blue, but never do so.