RationalWiki:UK Elections 2011

More Referendum Talk
Meh, AV is lost. Time to whine like a little cunt methinks. ADK ...I'll vocalise your Pyrex! 00:45, 6 May 2011 (UTC)
 * Yup. It's gonna come down to the margin of loss now. If it really is 20%, then we can forget seeing electoral reform for... 15 years, maybe 25. Depends on how stupid the election results start getting. If it's close - say 5% difference, then we might be able to get another vote sooner - also depending on how stupid the election results start getting. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:50, 6 May 2011 (UTC)
 * 25 at least. Even if the Lib Dems push it and Labour decide to also adopt it as a manifesto pledge (oh wait, they did but never got around to it) then it might remain on the table, but a No vote is just going to give the Tories the "the people didn't want it last time" fuel they'd need to derail it for some time. ADK ...I'll deter your osteoporosis! 07:14, 6 May 2011 (UTC)

Council Elections
The Lib Dems are being bent over and shafted roughly from behind in Scotland, Wales and England. It's gonna be difficult to see Clegg being able to walk straight tomorrow. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:14, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * So far it's a case of stronghold-reinforcement. Labour have done well in Labour strongholds and Tories have done well in Tory strongholds. Increasing polarisation, in other words. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:30, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * A Lib Dem candidate is found dead in his Newcastle home. That's pretty much an automatic new election. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:34, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Lab +5 in Hartlepool; LD -3; Other -2 –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:05, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * It looks like Labour are going to take 12/13 LD seats in Liverpool –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:06, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * LDs predicted to lose all their seats in Manchester. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:07, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * LDs -4; Lab +3; Con+2; Oth-1 in Stockport - LDs lose control of their only metropolitan council. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:51, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * LDs no longer largest party in Sheffield - Labour have overtaken them. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:52, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Con GAIN Gloucester –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:58, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Con LOSE Chorley –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:58, 6 May 2011 (UTC)

Results

 * Lab HOLD Glasgow Rutherglen
 * This was once a serious LD target, in fact I believe LDs held it a few years ago. The LD vote collapsed this time though. 7.4% swing to SNP from Lab. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:22, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * SNP GAIN East Kilbride –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:16, 6 May 2011 (UTC)
 * The figures show a 15% swing from LD to SNP - not that simple, of course, but that's the overall effect. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:22, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * SNP GAIN Hamilton & Larkhall –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:36, 6 May 2011 (UTC)
 * SNP +18% - votes coming from Lab, Con & LD - most from LD though


 * SNP GAIN Clydesdale
 * 9% swing from Lab to SNP - Lib Dems didn't even stand because they screwed up their voting papers. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:16, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * LDs are reporting that they've lost Edinburgh South. That would be a HUGE blow. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:59, 6 May 2011 (UTC)
 * Glasgow South: SNP GAIN (technically - it was a rearranged seat and was supposedly Lab before)
 * Well that's Nicola Sturgeon back again. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 02:06, 6 May 2011 (UTC)
 * SNP +15%; Lab -5%; LD -7% - presumably others -3%


 * SNP GAIN Airdrie and Shotts
 * Not as big a swing as elsewhere, but still a gain. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 02:11, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Lab HOLD East Lothian - that's Iain Gray's seat and he held it by 151 votes. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 02:31, 6 May 2011 (UTC)

Talk
Just wanna say that Nicola Sturgeon is a very good spokesperson for the SNiPs. For me, their trouble is that Alex Salmond is an oily little tit. I can't believe he has +33% approval! –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:52, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * My Scottish contacts are telling me that it's possible Labour's leader - Iain Gray - has lost his seat. Nowhere near certain yet, but possible. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 00:59, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Prediction from my Scottish source is SNP ~ 60 seats - my pre-election forecast was 55. He says LDs 7 seats. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:12, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Lib Dem Michael Moore (who I once helped get elected) is deflecting the results - it's all about how badly Labour are doing, apparently, not about how the Lib Dems are having to grasp their ankles and grit their teeth. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:19, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * The BBC just confirmed that Iain Gray's seat is neck and neck. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:32, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * My s00pa sikrit Scottish sources are saying that the SNP are claiming they will win both Airdrie and Cumbernauld. If they're right, it's a great night for the SNiPs. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:38, 6 May 2011 (UTC)

The Lib Dems have been virtually wiped out in Scotland. So far the only two seats they've held are the Orkney Islands and Shetland Islands. We're awaiting results in Caithness, Sutherland & Ross; Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch; Dunfermline and Fife North East, plus several regional list results, but it's difficult to see them reaching 7 seats. In my old stamping ground of Edinburgh, the party has lose Southern, Western and Central, which I don't think anybody was expecting. The last time the LDs did this badly was immediately after merger, in the 1988 Euro elections when they finished behind the Greens. It's difficult to know just what a devastating effect this will have on the activist base of the party. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 09:37, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Lib Dems have lost both Caithness and Lochaber to the SNP. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 11:03, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Bloody hell. SNP GAIN Fife North East from Lib Dem. There goes my old mate Iain Smith. You could have got very, very long odds on that happening. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 12:41, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * LD lose Dunfermline too - SNP gain. The Lib Dems have not won a constituency on mainland Scotland. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 12:42, 6 May 2011 (UTC)

The SNP have reached 65 seats so they have an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament. Looks like the final figure will be 67-68. My prediction was 55, and I'm not the only one who was so far out. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 13:51, 6 May 2011 (UTC)

Wales

 * Lab GAIN Blaenau Gwent from Ind
 * Predictable - they only lost this because an independent candidate won it last time. Less predictable was the Lib Dems finishing behind the BNP :/ –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:14, 6 May 2011 (UTC)


 * Lab GAIN Llanelli from Plaid Cymru.

Labour have 30 seats in the 60 seat assembly - just short of an overall majority. –SuspectedReplicant retire me 13:52, 6 May 2011 (UTC)

Overall
First predictions of vote share: Con -1; Lab: +13%; ; LD: -7% (softer vote in Lab areas); Oth: -4% That's from the GE.

From the last council elections: Con: +1; Lab: +9%; LD: -10%; Oth: +1% –SuspectedReplicant retire me 01:27, 6 May 2011 (UTC)