User talk:Ungläubiger/Probability

Zwar ein bißchen förmlich, aber dennoch herzlich gemeint... :-) 16:20, 12 June 2011 (UTC)

And now for something completely different: In the mathematical theory of probability (stochastic) a probability is a number between 0% and 100% assigned to an event.

The mathematical theory is just measure theory: a probabality of an event is the value of the probability measure of the event, i.e., an element of a measure space.

''The theory describes how to compute previously unknown probabilities based on known probabilities and the relationship between the events. ''

Under certain assumptions, you can use probability theory to compute previously unknown probabilities based on known probabilities and the relationship between the events., but this isn't the main concern of this theory, it's one of its applications.

The source of the very first probabilities is not part of this theory

What are these first probabilities? You are thinking of Baysian probabilities, aren't you?

16:36, 12 June 2011 (UTC)

Danke! Tch weiß, dass es herzlich gemeint ist.

Thank you for your comments.

Yes, the mathematical theory is just measure theory, that's the point I want to make while avoiding words like measure space. It tells you how to compute with probabilities, but it doesn't tell you where probabilities are coming from, as this depends on the interpretation. First probabilities could be Bayesian probabilities, frequentist probabilities based on measurements, or propensities in scientific theories. I changed the formulation which makes this hopefully clearer. Ungläubiger (talk) 17:50, 12 June 2011 (UTC)