RationalWiki talk:Predictions

Marijuana prediction
Prediction: "Marijuana will be legalised for medicinal form in the US nearly nationwide by 2018."

According to Cannabis is:
 * Legal in 9 states,
 * Legalised in medicinal form in 22 states, and another 16 states have only legalised CBD oil,
 * Illegal in 3 states.

That makes a total of 31 out of 50 states where marijuana is legalised for medicinal form if you exclude the "CBD oil only" states. The prediction uses weasel words ("nearly nationwide") but I do not think 31 states is sufficient to rate this prediction as true. However, it would be rated true if the "CBD oil only" states are counted. Should this prediction be rated true or false?

On an unrelated note, the Keith Olbermann prediction expired a long time ago, but I don't know if it's correct. CowHouse (talk) 15:29, 1 January 2018 (UTC)
 * I don't think it counts, because it's still a federal crime. Technically, it's illegal nationwide. Maybe chalk this prediction up as neither? RoninMacbeth (talk) 04:00, 12 September 2018 (UTC)
 * On the one hand, majority of states. On the other, yeah, still federally criminal. I'd lean toward the 'no' side of 'neither' Onychoprion (talk) 03:18, 27 October 2018 (UTC)

Belarus is now a puppet state?
I think the prediction "Russia will attempt to integrate or annex Belarus within the next decade." has basically come true (Russia supporting subversion of the last Belarusian election, followed by Russia using Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine). What do you think, ? Bongolian (talk) 04:50, 24 April 2022 (UTC)
 * Looking pretty damn likely, but I’d like to wait for more events on the issue before anyone declares me right. 19:26, 24 April 2022 (UTC)

"If the GOP wins the House, they will try to investigate Hunter Biden."
Is it too early to confirm this one as true? They already said they're gonna do it. 06:31, 18 November 2022 (UTC)
 * Hunter Biden is undoubtedly a criminal, and the reason he's not being criminally investigated is due to reasons of nepotism and class. That being said, I really doubt the GOP intends to address the systemic inequities that enable someone like Hunter Biden to walk free with no repercussions for his actions while the poor get thrown in prison for decades because of certain consensual, harmless acts. Vee (talk) 06:42, 18 November 2022 (UTC)
 * Not from the US but I'm surprised that a particular legislative branch of the government can simply decide to investigate someone who is (as I understand it) some private individual. Nevertheless it seems to be the way it works.Bob"Life is short and (insert adjective)" 08:57, 18 November 2022 (UTC)
 * Our legal precedents basically hold that Congress can investigate whatever or whoever they want. They just can't bring criminal charges or anything like that. 11:35, 18 November 2022 (UTC)
 * OK. Thanks.Bob"Life is short and (insert adjective)" 12:44, 18 November 2022 (UTC)

Transport at Christmas at Christmas
There will be a combination of strikes, 'major engineering works', 'excess of weather causing delays', and termini filled with people: dates - every year.

When a viable system of teleportation round the world is developed the same phenomena will occur.

The Easter and summer holiday equivalents will include massive queues on the motorways. Anna Livia (talk) 21:03, 7 December 2022 (UTC)

2024 Senate
I was wrong about the Senate this year, but look at this godawful map for 2024 and tell me the Dems will keep their majority:



19:48, 18 December 2022 (UTC)
 * It's a longshot, but victory is not impossible for Democrats. All three of the red state senators are popular in their respective states, while conversely Cruz is unpopular enough to put Texas into play (if Texas's voting patterns continue as they did in the last few cycles, then if Cruz underperforms the Republican presidential nominee by even three points then the race is very much winnable for Democrats). Granted, it needs a lot to go right, Tester and Manchin have yet to announce if they're running for reelection, and they'll probably need weak opponents as well (although Montana has a good chance of running Rosendale again). In the last two presidential elections only Susan Collins won in a state that voted for the opposite party on the presidential level. Arizona will be the real wild card here, as Sinema's defection does throw that race into chaos, but if everything goes right for the Democrats, which I say is maybe a 5% chance, then it is possible for them to expand their majority in 2024. Plutocow (talk) 20:09, 18 December 2022 (UTC)