2016 Republican Party presidential nomination



Everyone has been wondering all week how the candidates who aren’t Donald Trump will react to his super-S-M-R-T and totally practical plan to erect an Anti-Muslim Force Field around the USA...John Kasich will call it reprehensible, Ted Cruz will thank Trump for bringing up this important question, and Ben Carson will smile, nod, and wonder why the terrorists haven’t accepted Jesus into their hearts.

The Republican race to retake the White House began in 2015, culminating in the 1968 Democratic 2016 Republican National Convention clown show in Cleveland, Ohio. Time to buy stock in popcorn companies.

The Republican Party isn't very smart and hasn't been for a long time, but they don't need to be to achieve success. What they are good at is propaganda. In order to gain power, what they needed to do is section off 50%+1 of the electorate and get them voting for the GOP. The problem is this has left them extremely vulnerable to scam artists. That's why, in the last couple of elections, we've seen a couple of obvious hucksters rise to the top of the polls. Because they have denigrated the media to such an extent, it's not a big step to simply say Fox News is now part of the mainstream media and can be ignored. Because they screamed about how bankrupt the "establishment" is, it's simple for a big part of their base to not only ignore their advice but go directly against it. Because they told us repeatedly that the government can never get anything done, they can't point to a candidate who has accomplished anything of worth and get their base to listen. There was something of a perfect storm for Donald here. He could have been stopped at any point in the process if things had been just slightly different.

Is Trump any more outrageous than "death panels?" Were his remarks to that anchorwoman any more sexist than "legitimate rape"? Is his wall any less humane than "dig a big canal and electrify it!" or "let's build a giant laser!"? No, not particularly. Sprinkle on a little bit of "income tax is theft!" and even the Paulbots will be singing hosanas.

This is the monster their collective Frankenstein created. Nothing matters. "Loud" wins. Honk honk.

Elephant Graveyard
Stop all the clocks, cut off the telephone / Prevent the dog from barking with a juicy bone / Silence the pianos and with muffled drum / Bring out the coffin, let the mourners come

Dodged the bullet
Looked like they were going to run, but declined.

Woolly Mammoth
Admit it, you would pay to see the Prohibition Party make a comeback. We could host their primary at a Holiday Inn.

GOP primary polls


I sense a real fear from people that if Trump blows everybody out of the water in South Carolina, that he is suddenly unstoppable.

It's been a free-for-all: the GOP field from day one was the largest and most divided in decades, with nearly 30 elephants under consideration.

It should have been the Republicans' easiest election in 30 years, but they're about to nominate a guy who's miraculously more unlikable than Hillary Clinton. It's more about damage control at this point: A Trump nomination will leave a long-lasting stain on the party. Distancing themselves from Trump and propping up lame duck candidates might be the better long-term option, even if it means they lose the election:


 * Super Tuesday: It's not even a close primary. Trump is beating Rubio in his own state by like 30 points. Cruz has pockets of support in a few states. Cruz couldn't even win South Carolina with no evangelical competition, so he isn't going anywhere. (Don't blame Carson, he barely got any votes; Carolinians would rather throw their vote away than vote for Cruz.)


 * Kasich "knows" how to win Ohio. And if that's all it took to be president, that might mean something. His overall numbers will be similar to Ben Carson's who is still waiting for the "awakening."


 * Rubio was clearly the establishment pick and had been for a while. Then he choked. Bad. He collapsed to 5th in NH, losing to Jeb of all people. He is leading nowhere and the math looks bad for him. He doesn't even have the ground game to get out the vote in Iowa or New Hampshire, and, erm, doesn't seem to think this is a problem?  How ironic that Kasich could win Ohio and Cruz win Texas, yet Rubio can't even win Florida.


 * Presumptive nominee: The Prisoner's Dilemma between Rubio and Kasich is fascinating to watch. If Rubio is playing for a brokered convention then he might as well drop out now. Nothing shows real leadership and ability like best 2 out of 3? (Hey, don't knock Rubio's 3-5-2-3 strategy!)


 * Kasich could emerge as the "adult in the room"; he is well-poised to siphon support away from a flagging Rubio. Unfortunately, vanity candidates like Kasich and Carson are only helping Trump, and the longer they stay in, the more it helps Trump maintain a big lead. Even if the establishment lined up behind Kasich, he'd come to the convention with 1 state and a small fraction of the delegates. Years from now Kasich is going to be like Salieri from Amadeus ranting about how God chose Mozart over him.


 * Trump is doing just as well (or slightly better) than McCain and Mitt Romney were at this point. And there were a lot of "Romney? NEVER!" voters who failed to derail Romney's campaign. Sure, Rubio/Cruz might eventually pick up the lion's share of support from the other candidates if the rest drop out. But let's be realistic, they aren't going to all drop out until it's far too late to stop Trump. Looks like the donors are beginning to coalesce around Donald, as well.

Facepalms reverberate throughout RNC


Convention rules intended as a firewall against populist upstarts have backfired in SC, which may enable Trump to clinch the nomination with less than 40% of the vote. The RNC introduced the "winner-takes-all" states to avoid the uphill battle Romney faced against a bunch of joke candidates. Instead, it set things up for Trump to run away with the nomination and limit the time the establishment has to get their shit together.

Caveat: The RNC can conceivably fuck him when he gets there, hand it to Rubio Romney? Cruz Kasich  Jeb Bush for ultimate irony please GOP make it happen Romney,  and take their chances with Trump running as an independent. They've shown a willingness to snub people they feel don't belong before: They pretty much took a dump right on Ron Paul's head in 2012. However, that will probably never happen since Trump has the nomination locked up. The optics would be "RNC is stealing the election away from Trump." It will confirm all the voters' beliefs about establishment puppeteers pulling the strings.

If the Republicans gave their delegates out proportionally like the Democrats do, then it would be a much different story, and Trump would likely lose a brokered convention. But the fact is, rules are rules, and "winner takes all" states are giving Trump an insurmountable delegate lead. A round of applause, please.

On the upside, the GOP obliterating itself on national TV is going to send ratings through the stratosphere.

Primaries/Caucuses won thus far
Below are the winners of the states which have held primaries or caucuses so far:


 * Cruz
 * Alaska
 * Colorado
 * Idaho
 * Iowa
 * Kansas
 * Maine
 * Oklahoma
 * Texas
 * Utah
 * Wisconsin
 * Wyoming


 * Kasich
 * Ohio


 * Rubio
 * Minnesota
 * Puerto Rico (which is not a state, but still holds a primary)
 * Washington, D.C. (not a state, still hosts a primary)


 * Trump
 * Alabama
 * Arizona
 * Arkansas
 * California
 * Connecticut
 * Delaware
 * Florida
 * Georgia
 * Hawaii
 * Illinois
 * Indiana
 * Kentucky
 * Louisiana
 * Maryland
 * Massachusetts
 * Michigan
 * Mississippi
 * Missouri
 * Montana
 * Nebraska
 * Nevada
 * New Hampshire
 * New Jersey
 * New Mexico
 * New York
 * North Carolina
 * North Dakota
 * Oregon
 * Pennsylvania
 * Rhode Island
 * South Carolina
 * South Dakota
 * Tennessee
 * Vermont
 * Virginia
 * Washington
 * West Virginia

Videos

 * 2016 GOP Primary - The dating sim - Jeb is still our husbando, though.