User:Pbfreespace3/Syria



Syria is a country geographic region in the Middle East, located between Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, and Lebanon. It is currently being fought over by a charismatic dictator, Islamist rebels, a bunch of beheader lunatics, al-Qaeda, a persecuted ethnic group,, and "moderate" rebels.

History
Syria was inhabited for over seven thousand years. It has been part of numerous empires, including the Egyptian, Sumerian, Assyrian, Babylonian, Hittite, Persian, Roman, Ottoman, and French ones. Syria's history since the 20th century can be illustrated within narratives such as Syria gaining its independence from France after 1940 when Free France liberated Syria from Vichy France. It was once briefly united with Egypt as the United Arab Republic from 1958-1961, but that marriage ended quickly. After that, the Baathists took over, and they later split into the Iraqi faction (eventually led by Saddam Hussein) and the Syrian government faction led by Bashar al-Assad today.

In Classical times Syria was a wealthy, populous province of the Greek-speaking part of the Roman Empire. Saul was on his way to Damascus, Syria to arrest Christians when he fell off his ass and became one himself. Christian, that is.

Syria (led by Shias) was part of the coalition against Iraq (led by Sunnis) during the Gulf War. Part of the reason why is Syria hoped to gain a Shia ally in southern Iraq and weaken the Sunnis.

Today Syria is predominantly Muslim, with a significant Christian minority.

Relations with Israel
Like many Arab countries, Syria was defeated on the battlefield by Israel many times. In 1948 Syria was part of the Arab coalition that failed to wipe out Israel. In the 1967, Israel chased Syrian troops deep into Syrian territory, then kept and occupied the Golan Heights. Israel bombed an alleged "terrorist training camp" in Syria in 2003 and bombed an alleged nuclear reactor research station in 2007. Syria in turn funds and arms Hezbollah in Lebanon which fights against Israel.

Syria is also periodically bombed by Israeli airplanes, which often target government military sites in the Golan Heights near the front lines with rebels. Sometimes Hezbollah targets are also hit in these strikes, which are technically illegal under international law. Israel's excuse for this was that Iran was shipping missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon for use against Israel. This begs the question of why Israel doesn't just bomb the missile trucks after they cross the Lebanese border. For a long time, Israel also provided hospital care to al-Qaeda fighters and other rebels fighting along the border in Syria. There is a 15 kilometer (9 mile) de facto border that Israel shares with an ISIS branch called Shuhada al-Yarmouk. This group controls a 150 square kilometer area (57 square miles) and 12 villages along the border. It has fought al-Qaeda and other rebel fighters in Syria as it has held out along the Israeli border. Despite Israel conducting numerous drills of a mock Syrian invasion scenario, it has refused to attack these ISIS fighters at all, even though they are within shooting range. This is because Israel doesn't mind who's on their border as long as they don't attack Israel.

Relations with Lebanon
With its capital and largest city, Damascus, having lost its ancient direct links to the Mediterranean Sea in Beirut and Tripoli, Syria has long depended on and used Lebanon as an economic resource. Syria invaded Lebanon in 1976 and occupied it until 2006. Syria is frequently accused of being behind political assassinations in Lebanon. Today, Syria has good relations with Lebanon, as they both cooperate in fighting terror cells along their shared border.

Religion
Syria has a relatively diverse religious landscape, complicating politics and giving the government an excuse to keep a tight lid on everyone.
 * Sunnis are the majority, about 68% of the population.
 * Shi'as are about 16% of the population, most of whom are Alawis, a minority sect within a minority sect that most of the ruling class belong to. The Alawis (Alawites) splintered off of Shi'a Islam in the 9th century and integrated pagan, gnostic, and Christian doctrines. Alawi literally means "those who adhere to the teachings of Ali," the son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad. Sunnis consider the sect heretical (just like they consider all Shi'as to be heretics). This has been used as a justification for sectarian killings and execution of government soldiers. Often, if a soldier is captured, Sunni jihadi groups will ask "Sunni or Nusayri" (a slur for Shi'a), and kill you if you say Shi'a. Sometimes you will be told to pray, as Shi'as and Sunnis pray differently.
 * Druze are about 3% of the population; they are an ethnic group with their own monotheistic religious outlook separate from others. They are mostly centered in a certain area in the south of the country.
 * Christians make up about 11% of the population, including the Assyrians, the people the area is actually named after.
 * There are also 40,000 or so Yazidis in Syria, whose religion consists of a "Gnostic core belief structure with other elements of Zoroastrianism, Judaism, Christianity, Manichaeism, and Islam," and who are often persecuted for the unintentional (but mythologically related) resemblance of their object of worship, the Peacock Angel, to Satan in Christianity and Iblis in Islam. In August of 2014 the Islamic State started trying to kill their men and turn their women and children into sex slaves. They partially succeeded.

In 1973 introduced a new constitution which deleted any reference to Islam as the religion of the state and was seen by opponents of the Assad government, primarily the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, that the Alawite-Ba'athists were not only secularists, but anti-Islamic as well. This means the Syrian government is by definition secular, making it one of few in the Middle East to be so officially.

There are hardly any Jews left. It is likely that most Jews still in Syria are undercover Israeli spies.

Language
Syrian people speak primarily Arabic, spoken by 87% of the population. 9% of people, mostly in the north, speak Kurdish, although many of these speak Arabic as a second language. Assyrians, who speak Neo-Aramaic, comprise 1% and live in small communities in the northeast.

Who's Who
The current civil war in Syria began in 2011, during the Arab Spring.

Supporters of the Assad government include the Alawites and other minorities such as Christians and secularists, who fear retaliation from Sunnis and extremists (note that it's also supported by a significant amount of Sunnis who just want peace in the country and are serving in the Syrian Armed Forces).

There are multiple different rebel factions involved in this conflict, many of whom are fighting against one another. The most prominent of these is the Islamic State &mdash; otherwise known as Daesh &mdash; an extremist Sunni organization that has taken over the eastern and central part of the country. Their notoriously violent tactics have earned them the derision of the entire international community; even al-Qaeda regards them as too extreme. As far as Islamist organizations go, there's also the al-Nusra front, which is officially recognized as the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda, and several veterans of Chechen Wars with Russia. Al-Nusra controls large sections of land in the northwest, totaling over 2,500 km2. It is the most powerful rebel group, able to dictate terms to other factions and eliminate rebel dissent. Throughout the war, it has learned new tactics, mastering suicide bombing, tank warfare, and siege. Various 'Islamic' groups exist, mainly the Islamic Front, which consists of Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam, and Liwa al-Tawhid. These groups act as middle men; they coordinate with and mediate between al-Nusra and more moderate rebels. Then there's the Free Syrian Army, originally created in 2011 by defectors from the Syrian armed forces. They have received extensive funding and support from the United States and its allies, most importantly TOW missiles, with which it and other rebels have destroyed hundreds of Syrian Army tanks and vehicles throughout the war. Many of its members have since abandoned the secular resistance in favor of Islamist insurgents. The FSA has control over some swathes of land in the northwest, mainly some 300 km2 along the Turkish border, as well as another region in the southwest totaling 2,800 km2, but their control over these territories is considerably more tenuous than that of either the government or the Islamic State. For example, if al-Nusra says they are going to travel through FSA turf, there is nothing the FSA can do about it, except in the south, where the FSA 'Southern Front' enjoys near-exclusive control. Back in the good old days, the FSA used to be the main group you'd be talking about, but nowadays they're pretty weak when compared to the other factions.

In Syrian Kurdistan to the northeast, the Kurdish YPG (People's Protection Units) are holding their own quite well against all other factions attempting to claim their land, controlling a 28,000 km2 strip of land, most of the northern border. They're secularists, so much so that ISIS and al-Nusra consider them to be atheists. Turkey doesn't like these Kurds, as they threaten Turkey's supply line to ISIS and Syrian rebels, so Turkey sometimes enjoys shooting over the border at Kurdish troops for fun. Moderate Syrian Arab rebel groups operate in some Kurdish areas, allying with the much stronger YPG to fight Islamic State. The US has dropped over 100 tons of weapons and supplies to these groups, as well as assisting with organization and military strategy. YPG has achieved the most success against the ISIS, killing thousands of ISIS foot soldiers and liberated huge swaths of land.

Humanitarian crisis
In 2013 Amnesty International reported extensive attacks on civilian areas from shooting demonstrators to aerial bombardments, ballistic missile attacks and chemical weapons. By mid-August 2014, the international community removed and destroyed the Assad government's chemical weapons stocks. As part of a diplomatic solution based on a joint U.S.-Russian proposal, the Obama administration withdrew the threat of military force and the Assad government agreed to give up its chemical weapons and join the international Chemical Weapons Convention.

Both the government and rebel groups have been accused of indiscriminate attacks against civilians, although a consensus existed that the government's atrocities eclipsed those of the rebels (or at least until Islamic State gained prominence). The Assad government accuses the rebels of terrorism, and often says all of these groups share the same ideological goals as the Islamic State, which is at best an exaggeration, and at worst propaganda.

By August 2014, the United Nations estimated nearly 191,000 have died in the civil war, with 3 million refugees in neighbouring countries and 6.5 million internally displaced. Out of a total population of 22 million, nearly half have lost their homes. Now, the death toll is above 250,000 by conservative sources and knocking on 370,000 by the most liberal sources.

Belligerency
As the Islamic State terror group occupied larger portions of northern and eastern Syria, it came in competition with other Islamist extremists, notably al-Qaeda (including the killing of al-Qaeda leaders ) and slowed its advance on Damascus. It was reported by Agence France Presse that Islamic State had been re-selling oil from occupied lands to the Assad government at black market prices.

In late 2014 al-Nusra (al-Qaeda) overran a small contingent of the Free Syrian Army guarding U.S. manufactured which were then used in the capture of two of government's major military installations. They have since used these missiles to destroy dozens of tanks and hundreds of other government vehicles.

War Crimes
Throughout the war, there have been various accusations of war crimes from all sides. Mainly the rebels have accused government forces of indiscriminate attacks against populated areas, using unguided bombs and chemical weapons.

Another accusation leveled at the government is that it has used brutal siege tactics against civilian areas in an effort to starve and crush the rebels there. In most cases, the people living in these towns are able to leave the towns for government-held areas to avoid being killed, but many of them choose not to because they support the rebels. These are the 'civilians' who die in government airstrikes all the time: people who choose to stay behind and support rebel groups rather than the government. The government sieges are quite effective: they've caused many rebel-held towns to declare truces in exchange for humanitarian aid, and fighter evacuations have also been negotiated. The rebels have also laied siege to several government-held towns and fired 'hell cannons' (rockets) indiscriminately at them, often killing civilians who many rebels see as guilty of supporting the regime. Some rebels have used the "but they did it first" argument to justify these sieges.

Course of the War
It is pretty safe to say that the war started due to a Sunni dislike of the ruling Shia-Christian axis. This 'regime' severely limited Sunni political rights, awarding governmental positions to mostly non-Sunnis, despite Sunnis making up 68% of the population. The Sunnis were always pretty poor compared to the rich Shias and minorities, so it's understandable that they'd be angry about their economic situation. There was a major drought that caused thousands of Sunni farmers to leave their villages and move to slums in cities. When it became clear that war was coming, Christians, other Shias, and Druze allied with the government, fearing that Sunnis would repress their rights if Sunnis took power. The Sunni Kurds remained neutral, and have since sparred with the government, rebels, and Islamic State.

Seeing the uprising in Egypt and Libya, thousands of people got out of their homes, protested in the streets of cities like Daraa, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Damascus. They called for political reforms to give more power to the Sunnis and economic reforms to reduce poverty. Some teenagers graffitied "the people want the fall of the regime" on a school in Daraa. These youths were arrested by the police, which the protesters got angry about. Within a week, this became the main chant of the protesters, who called for the government to be replaced with a less sectarian one. The police, after failing to disperse the protesters, started shooting at a couple of mobs in Daraa and other cities. After weeks of these mass mobs failing to be dispersed by the police, the Army was called in to clear out the protesters. The Army took this to mean shoot at them with tanks and machine guns. After the Army surrounded protester strongholds and dispersed most of these, some medium-level Army officers who sympathized with the protesters deserted their posts in the night and went to protester camps, joining them and plotting to militarily overthrow the government. When it became clear peaceful change wasn't going to happen, the protesters decided to take up AK-47s, dig trenches, and shoot back at the Army. The protesters started flying the old 1950s flag and calling themselves the Free Syrian Army, stating that their objective was to defend civilians and thus topple the government by violence. The government took this to mean war, and seeing a threat to its existence, decided to launch a conventional military campaign to crush the uprising.

The insurgency grew, fed by support from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United States, and al-Qaeda. The prevailing opinion among Western and Sunni powers was that the rebels would win relatively quickly and establish a democratic state where everyone is happy. Needless to say, that did not happen. As government attacks on pro-rebel civilians increased, psychological trauma led a good many rebels to become Islamists. A good example was the rebel leader, Zahran Alloush calling for a genocide of Shias. Note that he said this after years of daily bombing and shelling of a besieged rebel pocket near Damascus. Westerners tried to clean up Alloush's reputation and image to make him "leader of the Syrian opposition" in the Geneva talks aimed at staving off Western boots on the ground in favor of a negotiated diplomatic solution.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri ordered seasoned Al-Qaeda fighters in Iraq to cross the border into Syria, join up with sympathetic rebel camps, and gain experience. A few hundred did this, and over many months, they gained clout with rebels, who realized what good anti-government fighters they were. They formed an official Al-Qaeda branch called Jabhat al-Nusra, meaning the Support Front. Many Islamists joined up with this group after watching it succeed in battles with the government, and al-Nusra slowly gained strength and support from the rebel movement. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, al-Qaeda's leader in Iraq, ordered his Iraqi fighters into Syria as well, who worked independently from al-Nusra. Zawahiri didn't want this, insisting on separate branches for Iraq and Syria. Al-Baghdadi disagreed, wanting a united jihad that he was to lead. When Zawahiri ordered his group, Islamic State of Iraq, out of Syria, Baghdadi refused. Zawahiri then disowned him, leading al-Nusra to fight Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. This was a showdown that resulted in a partition that benefited ISI the most, as it secured dozens of towns within days.

When the chasm between al-Qaeda and Islamic State broke open, Islamic State made power grabs to secure control. They systematically crushed multiple rebel and al Qaeda pockets, securing a heartland along the Euphrates River. In addition, they began fighting with every group in the country. Since everyone else was too busy fighting each other, Islamic State was eventually able to take over half of the country land-wise (there is a lot of desert).

Meanwhile, the rebels were slaving away fighting the government in the west and south. Large gains were unable to be fully secured, as several government counteroffensives succeeded in capturing strategically significant areas that denied total rebel control over any one province. This was described by some as an "army in all corners" strategy, that sacrificed some areas in the name of maintaining overall legitimacy. Major cities like Aleppo, Damascus, and Daraa remained contested, while the government pushed the rebels out of Homs and Hama. Due to the lack of rebel success, many rebels turned to other groups that promised them success through religious methods. Groups like Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Sham, and others formed the Islamic Front, a counterpart to the FSA that rivalled it in strength. These groups played an increasing role in both warfare and governance activity.

US and international intervention started by focusing on bombing Islamic State targets. Al-Qaeda and affiliated targets have also been hit before, in an attempt by the US to eliminate extremists and strengthen the moderates. This attempt has largely failed. The US has armed and coordinated airstrikes with the Kurdish YPG in the north, and has also attempted several times to form a large 'democratic force'. Most attempts to do this have failed, with only the most recent, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, succeeding in taking large areas from Islamic State.

Russian intervention began as material support for the Assad government, but after terrorists allied to ISIS blew up one of their passenger airplanes, they officially joined in the fight, and began bombing targets… in areas that the rebels and not ISIS were located. Instead, they mainly targeted other rebels such as al-Nusra, the Islamic Front, and other more moderate groups. However, Russia has bombed ISIS many times in Syria since its campaign started, striking infrastructure that ISIS could use to support its occupation. Strikes have also been consistent along front lines with the Syrian Army.

A Russian bomber plane entered into Turkish airspace for a few seconds (Russia disputes the route) and was subsequently shot down by a Turkish F-16, leading to quite a bit of tension. One of the pilots was shot by Turkey's proxies moderate rebels as he was parachuting down, which is technically a war crime. Given that the Russian pilot's mission was to kill those rebels, it's slightly understandable why they might be a bit pissed.

Over 6,000 Russian airstrikes against rebel forces, which averaged 60 sorties per day, resulted in large Syrian Army advances in the northwest. Dozens of towns and villages were recaptured, some of them held by rebels for many years. A major rebel supply line from Turkey was cut, which put pressure on rebels and caused major gains for both the Kurds and the Army in the north; the Army and the Kurds reached an understanding that they would avoid conflict to fight other groups instead. Major rebel strongholds that were previously viewed as secure were lost, and a complex political reorganization occurred. Hundreds of moderate Sunni Arabs decided to join the Kurds under the US-backed group Syrian Democratic Forces. This group advanced against the rebels, seizing several towns.

On February 26, 2016, a UN-brokered ceasefire took effect. The ceasefire is between the government and all rebel groups except for ISIS and al-Nusra: the government and other groups are still allowed to fight them. After the time of implementation (midnight), a quiet fell over many rebel-held areas as government bombing stopped. While sporadic clashes between the Syrian Army and al-Nusra still occurred on a few fronts, almost all other government-rebel fronts remained static. The ceasefire between rebels and the government allowed the government to shift thousands of troops to fight ISIS. The Syrian Army captured many areas from ISIS in the desert, and it conducted dozens of airstrikes against ISIS positions. The Army launched an offensive against the ISIS-held city of Palmyra, and succeeded in capturing the city and its surroundings.

Future Predictions
With Russian support, it is virtually impossible that the government will be toppled. Continued Russian air raids will result in large Syrian Army advances against Islamic State. Continued Russian airstrikes will result in significant rebel ground losses, but are unlikely to eliminate the rebels as a geopolitical force. US airstrikes and support for the Kurds will continue to result in large territorial losses for Islamic State in the north, losing Arab-majority areas to a combined Kurdish-Arab force, including the area near Raqqa, the capital of the Islamic State. It is also unlikely that Islamic State loses its core territory along the Euphrates river, as there is no armed force close enough to contest that area.