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| Not just a river in Egypt|
|♫ We're not listening ♫|
Common arguments and refutations
Coronavirus has a 99% survival rate (or a very, very small mortality rate).
- U.S. President Donald Trump claimed in a speech on July 4, 2020 that 99 percent of COVID-19 cases are "totally harmless." Then on September 22, after the U.S. had 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, Trump said that COVID-19 affects "[e]lderly people with heart problems and other problems...But it affects virtually nobody."
- Former U.S. Representative Allen West shared on his Facebook page an image macro that said that coronavirus had a "99% survival rate."
"Totally harmless" is meaningless in terms of science, but even disregarding that, Trump's estimate is extremely inaccurate. If this were referring to asymptomatic cases, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 35 percent of cases are asymptomatic, but that statistic alone must be viewed in the context that people without coronavirus symptoms can still spread the virus to others who could face different outcomes. Furthermore, while it is technically accurate that the mortality rate is around 1 percent according to the World Health Organization (WHO), the WHO also estimates that 20 percent of people diagnosed with coronavirus will require hospitalization or a ventilator.
Applying these statistics to the U.S. population (estimated at 328 million), in a theoretical U.S. where everyone were to be infected, a 1 percent mortality rate would lead to 3.28 million deaths, and 20 percent hospitalization would require 65.6 million hospital beds (and millions, possibly billions in hospital bills).
In August 2020, ESPN revealed possible long-term organ damage that could result from coronavirus: myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart muscle. That condition was found in college football players in the U.S., putting at jeopardy the 2020 college football season.
The death rate is over-counted due to coronavirus being a comorbidity.
- Allen West wrote: "... COVID-19 is most dangerous for those with underlying medical conditions such as hypertension, heart disease, COPD, Type 2 diabetes, and obesity."
- In April 2020, Fox News host Tucker Carlson attributed a sudden drop in pneumonia deaths to the CDC classifying such deaths as being from coronavirus.
Carlson's interpretation is premature, because mortality data can take anywhere from two to eight weeks to be finalized. Also, the lack of testing makes a stronger case that coronavirus deaths are being under-counted.
Coronavirus is no worse than the common cold or flu. (Alternative forms: The flu kills more people.)
- In early May 2020, when the U.S. coronavirus death toll was around 60,000, West compared that number of deaths to the 61,000 deaths in the 2017-18 influenza season.
- The flu season comparison is a false analogy, because the flu season lasts around six months. West's comparison happened when the coronavirus pandemic had not even eclipsed two months.
- Besides the flawed comparison of mortality rates, coronavirus has factors of harm unlike the flu: a lack of a vaccine or herd immunity and much higher contagion and hospitalization rates.
The swine flu and past epidemics have been more deadly than COVID-19.
When looking beyond the raw numbers, this a false analogy. Estimates for H1N1 (swine flu) deaths during the 19-month pandemic that lasted from 2009 to 2010 range from around 150,000 to 575,000. But that was in over one and a half years. Meanwhile, nearly 130,000 people in the U.S. alone have died from COVID-19 in just under four months as of July 6, 2020.
The more testing, the more cases!
The reason more cases are being reported is because there is more testing being done.
Refutation: According to an analysis by Stat News, more testing revealing more cases was the situation in only seven U.S. states out of 33 that had increased cases between mid-May and mid-July 2020. In the other 26 states, the increase in cases was truly due to a greater spread of the virus. ProPublica made similar findings in late June.
We need to achieve herd immunity!
The only way we will get a handle of this virus, is if we go about our lives and let the virus work its way through society.
"We are aggressively sheltering those at highest risk, especially the elderly, while allowing lower-risk Americans to safely return to work and to school, and we want to see so many of those great states be open. We want them to be open. They have to be open. They have to get back to work.” Trump RNC 2020 Convention
"When younger, healthier people get the disease, they don’t have a problem with the disease. I’m not sure why that’s so difficult for everyone to acknowledge. These people getting the infection is not really a problem, and in fact, as we said months ago, when you isolate everyone, including all the healthy people, you’re prolonging the problem because you’re preventing population immunity. Low-risk groups getting the infection is not a problem." Scott Atlas the anti Dr. Fauci on Fox News in July
This relies on two bits of denialism, first that the spread can be controlled, and second that it isn't as damaging to human body. The idea being that if the disease spreads, you can protect the most vulnerable people, allowing it to infect the population who will eventually develop antibodies, eventually dying out because it can no longer infect people. This rarely happens naturally, recent history has seen NGO's and governments pursue massive vaccination efforts, with the goal of reaching community immunity, which is different for every disease. Because so little is still known about Covid, there are estimates about the percentage of the population that would need immunity, somewhere between 40% - 70%.
- The virus is spreading uncontrollably right now: To achieve this you would need to guarantee the the most vulnerable populations would be protected, evidence this can be done in the US is scant, especially when you consider around 50% of the deaths are connected to nursing homes, presumably the most vulnerable population.
- The amount of death necessary is intolerable: The United States has done an exceptionally good job at treating the virus, but getting rid of the current limited restrictions, may threaten that if local health systems get overwhelmed. And at current mortality rates, and a 65% target immunity, this would sacrifice around 2 million Americans.
- The long term effects of the disease are still unknown: There are reports of major intestinal, and cognitive ailments that have appeared after an infection. Considering the American healthcare infrastructure depends on healthy people paying for sick people, millions of new sick people would endanger the system.
- It already didn't work: Many conservatives talk about the "Swedish Model" in dealing with Covid-19. Health officials opted for a hands off approach, with restrictions only for the most vulnerable. The result Sweden's infection and fatality rates are significantly higher than their neighbors in Finland and Norway, while still suffering the economic collapse everyone else is suffering. Health officials in Sweden have already stated that if they could, they would go back and change their approach.
List of COVID-19 deniers
- Reston, Maeve. "Trump uses July 4th address to put forward a dangerously misleading claim." CNN: July 5, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
- O'Kane, Caitlin. "Trump said coronavirus 'affects virtually nobody,' as U.S. surpasses 200,000 deaths." CBS News: September 22, 2020. Accessed October 4, 2020.
- West, Allen. "My quote is taken from the article here..." Facebook post from April 28, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
- Veronica Stracqualursi and Sarah Westwood, "FDA commissioner refuses to defend Trump claim that 99% of Covid-19 cases are 'harmless'." CNN: July 5, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
- Lavigne, Paula, and Schlabach, Mark. "Heart condition linked with COVID-19 fuels Power 5 concern about season's viability." ESPN. August 10, 2020. Accessed August 14, 2020.
- Colvin, Jill, and Miller, Zeke. "Trump says he and first lady tested positive for coronavirus." Associated Press: October 1, 2020. Accessed October 4, 2020
- Miller, Zeke; Colvin, Jill; and Lemire, Jonathan. "Trump, stricken by COVID-19, flown to military hospital." Associated Press: October 2, 2020. Accessed October 4, 2020.
- Krepel, Terry. "CNS' West Embraces Dubious Stats And Misinformation." ConWebBlog: May 25, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
- Blake, Aaron. "Birx and Fauci reject Fox News-promoted theory that coronavirus deaths are inflated." The Washington Post: April 8, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
- Radcliffe, Shawn. "Here’s Why COVID-19 Is Much Worse Than the Flu." Healthline: May 14, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
- Maragakis, Lisa Lockerd. "Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu." Johns Hopkins Medicine. Accessed July 5, 2020.
- Rettner, Rachael. "How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?" LiveScience: May 14, 2020. Accessed July 5, 2020.
- Heneghan, Carl, and Jefferson, Tom. "COVID-19 deaths compared with “Swine Flu”." Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine: April 9, 2020. Accessed July 6, 2020.
- Shumaker, Lisa, and Fagenson, Zachary. "Miami rolls back restaurant dining as U.S. coronavirus deaths top 130,000." Reuters: July 6, 2020. Accessed July 6, 2020.
- Begley, Sharon (July 20, 2020). "Trump said more Covid-19 testing ‘creates more cases.’ We did the math." Stat News. Accessed August 15, 2020.
- Ornstein, Charles, and Ngu, Ash (June 25, 2020). "No, President Trump, Testing Is Not Causing Case Counts to Rise. The Virus Is Just Spreading Faster." ProPublica. Accessed August 15, 2020.
- The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19 (21 Oct 2020) Nature