Talk:Gambler's fallacy

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[edit] Monty Hall problem

Is there a connection with the Monty Hall problem[wp]? It seems like a sort of inverse gamler's fallacy: a situation where your odds do actually improve but your gut feeling is that it's still an even game. ЩєазєюіδWeaselly.jpgMethinks it is a Weasel 20:23, 10 February 2015 (UTC)

That's really a stretch. The Monty Hall problem purposefully exploits the fact that people don't realize they've been given information. Whereas the gambler's fallacy is far more about a conflation of the long term probabilities with the short term, a class of misunderstanding. Ikanreed (talk) 20:35, 10 February 2015 (UTC)
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