User:Lulz/Chance
Chance1[edit]
This is the sense used in the theory of probability. Actually there are three different basic definitions of probability. The range theory defines probability as the ratio of "favourable" cases to "all cases possible", assuming "all cases equally likely" (eg two sides of a coin are equally likely, so the chance of a head is 1:2).[1] The limiting-relative-frequency concept defines probability as the ratio of "favourable cases" to the total number of trials in an indefinite sequence of trials (eg that the long-run ratio of heads to tosses is 1:2).[2] The subjective theory of probability sees it as nothing more than betting odds which follow the probability formulae (eg a person might be prepared to bet evens on a head coming up).[3]
There are variations on these, but all see probability as essentially a feature of human ignorance - none deny the essential determinism of events.
Chance2[edit]
This is the sense used in Heisenberg's Principle of Uncertainty.
Chance3[edit]
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ Classically expressed by Laplace in Analytic Theory of Probability (1812) and A Philosophical Essay on Probability (1814). Laplace was a determinist and believed probability expressed only human ignorance.
- ↑ This can either be seen as an observed feature of empirical sequences as R Von Mises, Probability, Statistics and Truth (1939), or as a mathematical theory conjectured to apply to an actual sequence as K Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery.
- ↑ Eg J M Keynes, A Treatise on Probability (1921) or L J Savage, Foundations of Statistics (1954).