Essay:Sports & Covid-19

As the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the globe in February 2020, sport was among the many things that was completely halted, with some leagues choosing to end their seasons, delay their season starts, and to the many that were already in full swing, call a hiatus to wait to see if the season could be salvaged at a later date. With the likelihood this disease shall remain a present in human society, it is important to understand how sport has already changed in a pandemic environment, and what changes are coming for the future of sport.

Why Sports Matter

Sport is the reward of a functioning society. If most of society has met the basic demands of it's citizens, people will use the extra time not worrying about making sure there is food on their table or a roof over their head to seek entertainment. Most civilizations throughout history have featured sport in some way into their society. For the Greeks, competitions of strength, speed and strategy were a way to seek higher enlightenment, as well as reward those seeking to hone their bodies to be stronger, faster and smarter. Roman (Gladiator, Naumachia, Chariot Racing) and Meso-American / Native American (Mesoamerican ballgame,Lacrosse) societies sought to highlight the competition of peoples they had conquered. Sport has also unified societies in trying times, like the South African national rugby team after Apartheid (1995 Rugby World Cup) or the Ivory Coast national football team during civil war. It also functions as less lethal way for nations to compete against one another (to my knowledge there have been fewer deaths in matches between English and French football teams than their 100 Year Wars). Additionally sport provides structure for children in their development, introducing them to rules, sportsmanship, teamwork, and competition in a lower stakes environment. Team sport, especially at the professional level, becomes a part of societies culture and identity, sometimes even stronger than other cultural factors like race, religion, gender, or socio-economic status. There is even evidence that a poor result from a team can have a negative impact on societies productivity.

When societies break down, sports are among the first things to fall to the wayside, as other needs become more important, but simply disappearing over the course of a week can have serious societal consequences.

The Week Shi*t Hit the Fan

While word of a pathogen tearing through Wuhan, China, much of the world continued as if nothing had happened. But as more information came out throughout February, and a handful of cases appeared in other places around the globe, the sports world began to take notice. Vietnam, thought to have to deal with an influx of cases because of it's shared border with China, cancelled all sporting events in February. FIBA Asia Cup qualifying, involving China, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines was also called off. During February, the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49er's in the SuperBowl, UEFA Champions League played two knock out round Match days across Europe, and athletes across the globe were preparing for the 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.

The second week of March proved decisive. Serie A in Italy, the Bundesliga in Germany, the Premier League in England, La Liga in Spain, Ligue 1 in France as well as the NBA and the NCAA in the United States all abandoned their season between March 8 - 11. Amateur sports abandoned their seasons as well. The United States had an especially dramatic cancellation happen on March 11. While games had started for many teams with a 17:00 EST tip off, many other teams (mostly East of the Mississippi River) had yet to start, including a match up between the Utah Jazz and the Oklahoma City Thunder, playing in Oklahoma City. Earlier in the day Jazz Center Rudy Gobert, had made light of the pandemic in a pre-match interview, making sure to touch every single microphone on the table in front of him. He later complained of symptoms similar to Covid-19, and received a positive result. Players were on the court, ready to play, when officials sent both teams to their locker rooms, then announced the game had been called off, telling the spectators to leave. The NBA found several infections after testing every single player and staffer from the Jazz and Thunder. NBA officials called the season off while games were still happening, leading to this wild moment from Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, discovering the decision on his phone while sitting court-side.

Covid-19 Shutdown

Just like many of the rest of us, athletes spent the months of March, April and May staying home. Practice facilities were closed, leading to many athletes trying to find unique ways to stay in shape. Eventually the summer Olympics were rescheduled (to 2021) as well as World Cup Qualifying tournaments in Europe and South America as it became clear the pandemic could not be controlled by June. During this time high profile athletes became infected with Covid-19, while countries sought to rein in the disease.

Europe

While Germany, Norway and Finland managed the crisis fairly well, Spain, Italy and the UK were ravaged reaching hundreds of thousands of cases and tens of thousands of deaths. German sport returned Mid-May with the Bundesliga. To do so, the league instituted league wide testing to find infected athletes and return healthy athletes to training with strict protections in place, including reduced number of athletes on the grounds, mask wearing and physical distancing. Clubs also barred fans from watching matches in stadiums, in keeping with local guidelines to limit the number people gathering. The Premier League, Serie A, and La Liga returned to play in June, following similar protocols. Euroleague (basketball) however abandoned its 2019-20 season in it's entirety.

Amusingly, in Belarus, they continued playing football, as dictator Alexander Lukashenko insisted there wasn't an epidemic in his country. Lukashenko recommended Vodka and bathhouse visits to stop infection. Not surprisingly, he contracted Covid-19.

Asia

Japan, South Korea and Taiwan suspended sport quickly, wary after SARS ravaged South East Asia in the early 2000's. Because they locked down so early, they were able to restart suspended football seasons, and start baseball without fans. Taiwan and South Korea have even welcomed back fans.

Oceania

Australia and New Zealand shutdown hard and early when Covid spread. Having the advantage of being surrounded by oceans, the managed to basically stop local infections. In Australia they intend to play all their league football matches and rugby also returned, without fans. New Zealand however managed the crisis so well, not only did rugby return, but so did 35,000 fans.

South America

Much of South America locked down early, with the exception of Brazil led by Jair Bolsonaro who can be safely called a Covid skeptic. With no nationwide lock-down, individual states created rules limiting gatherings in March. But encouraged by Bolsonaro, clubs including Rio de Janeiro giants Flamengo and their rivals Vasco de Gama returned to training. The season only had two matches remaining, and while Brzail is still putting up astonishing numbers of infections and deaths (and Bolsonaro contracted Covid-19) they plan to resume training for preperations for the 20-21 season already. Many other countries plan to resume play, some who have managed it well (Paraguay has 11 Covid related deaths) and others who haven't. (Bolivia with 5,300 Covid deaths is second only to Brazil in South America) Bolivia and Peru are discussing the idea of a "bubble" the choice of North American leagues.

North & Central America

Nowhere is sport and society more tightly intertwined than the US. While Mexico and Canada have their own sports league, Canada features teams in the NBA, NHL, MLB and MLS and Mexico hosts NBA, NFL and MLS matches frequently. CONCACAF cancelled virtually all football competitions for it's members, including international competitions, FIBA America's has also put multiple qualification tournaments on hold, including for new olypmic 3 x 3 basketball. The first "competition" to return was golf, featuring two charity matches, the NWSL was the first league to return in North America with a tournament in Utah. With the pandemic still raging in the United States, the NWSL guidelines to return were replicated by the NBA, MLS, WNBA and NHL, namely keep all competitors at one facility, test everyone in the bubble regularly and limit the amount of people allowed enter the bubble. Showing the continued influence of the virus, several high profile players opted out and the 9 team league only featured 8 when the Orlando Pride saw widespread infections on its team and didn't even travel.

The NBA, MLS and WNBA decided to operate in bubble facilities in Florida (when the decision was made in May, many thought Florida had avoided the worst of the crisis, but when competitions began in June and July Florida had become the epicenter of the Covid crisis in the United States.) with NBA and MLS staking claims at Walt Disney World ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex and the WNBA at the IMG Academy in Bradenton, FL. MLS had barely gotten a month into their season before abandoning in March, and the WNBA typically began their season in June, but the NBA was nearly 3/4 complete into their season so changes needed to be dramatic for their format. MLS reintroduced it self with a seeded tournament,(two teams didn't make the trip to Orlando, FC Dallas Nashville SC) and the WNBA planned to play it's 22 game regular season and playoffs all in the bubble. The NBA playoffs feature sixteen teams, eight from it's Eastern and Western Conferences, but the places on each side had been yet to be settled. The NBA chose to invite twenty-two teams to Orlando; thirteen from Western Conference and nine from the Eastern Conference, who will play eight games to determine their play-off seed. Though a couple players were found to be infected before they arrived, after two weeks on campus the NBA has had no players infected while on campus. MLS completed it's tournament successfully, and returned to season play with Dallas and Nashville playing a match that featured spectators.

MLB haggled extensively over whether to even have a season (they were in Spring training when things shut down), but players and owners negotiated a 60 game season. But unlike NBA, MLS, WNBA and NHL, they chose to play their games at their home stadiums. And unlike the NBA, WNBA, MLS and NHL detailed protocol's including requirements for players physical distancing and behaviour, MLB opted for recommendations. This so far, has proven to be a disaster, starting with an entire team becoming infected, forcing the MLB to rearrange entire schedules, and the MLB commissioner signaling the season may be abandoned if they cannot manage the outbreaks.

College sports (for people unfamiliar, in the US there is an amateur sports body called the NCAA, that profits from Black athletes, provides no financial compensation, and the profit making sports of American football and basketball fund all the other sports and competitions) were halted in March right before the very popular (and very profitable) men's basketball tournament, featuring sixty-six teams playing across the country over three weeks. Spring sports were completely abandoned as campuses sent students home. However schools planned for the pandemic to be under control by the time the American football season would begin in late August, including planning to host fans in the stadium. However the virus is currently running rampant across states that have deep American football roots (Alabama, Georgia, Tennesse, Florida, Louisiana, California), which threatens billions of the NCAA's revenue. There have already been several outbreaks among teams, as well as teams lying about Covid, encouraging players not to reveal symptoms, and sign waivers that the NCAA explicitly stated they have no legal right to require. This is especially egregious, considering the players have no bargaining power, though some players are threatening to sit out without systemic changes. The University of Connecticut on August 5 became the first school to cancel American football this season.

The National Football League (NFL), the most valuable league on the planet at $13 Billion, completed it's season in February. During the entirety of the pandemic, they planned on everything being under control by the time their season started in early-September. It is now clear that they completely squandered that time, and are virtually unprepared for the season to begin. Similar to the MLB, they planned to have teams play games at their home stadiums, and with 55 players per squad, and tens of coaches and support staff a bubble seems an impossible feat. Already players are opting out of the season, and one of the most recognizable receivers in the league suggesting the NFL abandon plans for a season.

Why This Matters

There a couple factors at play that make this worthy as a lens of analysis.

Capitalism

The primary reason many leagues returning is financial. The English Premiere League sold television rights to show their games across the globe for $3.8 billion an amount that accounts for 60% of all the clubs revenue. Had they not completed the remaining fixtures, they would have needed to refund over a quarter of this amount ($955 million). Considering they also lost ticket revenue for the remaining fixtures and likely much of next season, clubs likely lost 20% of their revenue over the previous year. It was a similar situation for the German Bundesliga, where 13 clubs faced a financial crisis without receiving the final 25% of broadcasts payments ($300 million dollars). Additionally, league tables were unsettled across European leagues, where placing high on the table qualifies clubs for UEFA Champions League or Europa League competition where clubs split $2.4 billion dollars and $605 million dollars, respectively. Both of these competitions still have several million dollars left to distribute for the 19/20 competitions.

In the US, the situation is even more dire for the NFL and NCAA. With the cancelling of the men's basketball tournament (an estimated loss of $375 million), the NCAA is set to distribute $225 million to the 1,200 schools across all divisions, a decrease of nearly 63%. Cancelling the American college football season could total a $4 billion loss. Many high profile college programs actually lost money this year, and further losses threaten the entire system. The NFL situation is even more dire, with no ticket revenue the NFL is likely to lose out on $7 billion in revenue, over 43% of its projected revenue. For a sport that was already under serious scrutiny for it's treatment of concussions, this too could see a fundamental shift in the worlds most valuable league.

At the local level, especially for college towns, American football brings in millions of dollars for local business especially vulnerable during the pandemic, like hotels, bars and restaurants. State College, PA sees around $70 million from home games, based on local estimates, while Madison, WI estimates home matches bring in around $16 million.

Political

As mentioned previously, sports reflect society, and often function as an escape for viewers to live vicariously through their favorite teams and athletes. The pandemic has shaken society so violently, that seeing sports functioning normally would be an indication things were under control. This is likely why Lukashenko in Belarus participated in a semi-pro hockey game, filled with spectators, it was meant to show strength. It's also a factor for super clubs like Flamengo returned to training, following the example Brazil's Bolsonaro even though they had 38 positive infections. President Donald J. Trump hoped to capitalize on MLB's return, reflecting his (wrong) belief that the pandemic was under control. He even attacked his own scientists critique of MLB's return plan. The governors of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi each explicitly mentioned wanting a return of American college football to support mask wearing. Bundesliga's return reflect the success of German leadership containing the virus, create detailed protocols to protect athletes and staff, taking the virus seriously. Recently San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich compared the success the NBA has seen with its bubble to what could be possible in the US.

The Pac 12 and Big 10 cancelled their American football seasons August 10, several prominent Republicans made comments in support of its return, including the President, even though their incompetence is the reason the season is impossible.

The Big 12 became the first college conference to confirm it will proceed with fall sports including American football. How they plan to is still unknown, but considering the conference features teams from Republican supporting states, it certainly seems to be directly opposed to the Pac 12 and Big 10, which feature majority Democratic supporting states.

Donald J Trump

Trump will not shut his mouth about sports, so it's now imperative to nail down what he's saying and why it basically doesn't help. On August 11, Trump gave an interviewto Clay Travis, a sports media hack, who has been been wrong about Covid-19 no less than five times on Twitter. The interview includes some noteworthy takes from Trump, but it's clear from the interview, there is no plan to have American college football return, only that it must. Tim Miller from The Bulwark pulled out a particular stream of consciousness in his own analysis (emphasis is my own):\

They want to play football and they know better than anyone else . . . One of the great doctors said these people are so powerful and so strong and not lots of body fat. . . maybe none in some cases, they’re very healthy people, people don’t realize it’s a tiny percentage of people that get sick and they’re old and it just attacks old people especially old people with some kind of a physical problem, a weight problem, isn’t it wonderful that I’m a perfect physical specimen . . . somebody said I had zero percent body fat wouldn’t that be nice, this attacks older people very viciously if it’s the wrong person but these football players are very young strong people physically, so they’re not going to have a problem . . . Could it happen? But I doubt it you’re not going to see people dying and many people get it and they have kids that get it they have the sniffles, young kids almost none have a serious problem with it. I mean the state of California almost nobody that’s young had a, like zero, had a problem with meaning a serious problem with this disease, they get better very quickly if they get it at all. So I think football is making a tragic mistake

There are so many things wrong in this, it's frankly startling that this argument is still being used seven months into the pandemic. Looking at this from the sport perspective however there are some particularly gross assumptions being made. Firstly, he specifically mentions weight problems (which is rich considering he is obese), and while American football players are in terrific shape, they tend to be heavier, especially line-men. Frequently they are beset with health problems later in life, mostly concussions, but they also are the highest risk considering every single play they have the other line-men breathing in their face. Next Trump produces his favorite rhetorical device by stating something that is outrageous, then hedges. There is plenty of evidence of athletes contracting Covid-19, even some evidence that Covid-19 could do significant damage to internal organs. Most importantly though, nothing Trump discusses here about about doing the things necessary to bring college athletics back.

Miller in his piece provides a scathing critique that is unequivocally correct; the work to bring back college athletics is not done by schools or the athletes, it needs to be done by fans. If Americans want college athletics back, then they need to slow, stop and then crush the infection rate. They need to stay home, wear masks, and physical distance. They need to take the virus seriously, but evidence suggests Americans are unwilling to do that. Trump and to a lesser extent Travis, are among those responsible for that failure by perpetually downplaying the threat of the virus and not being honest with people about what is necessary to beat it. Miller also brings up the fact that the players have no right to collective bargaining, which would also provide some sort of protection to athletes, but then schools would need to give up millions of dollars.

Reports indicate that Trump was rattled by advertisements approved by the Biden campaign, targeting Midwestern states that features empty stadiums from each individual state. The Big 10 features teams from 6 Midwestern states, including three (Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa) that are critical for re-election. Trump tweeted that he had called the Big 10 commissioner and pushed for him to reverse course and bring the season back. This comes on the heels of many parents of Big 10 athletes holding demonstrations in support of a season. It is important to reiterate, that if the pandemic was under control, this could happen, however cases are spiking in Iowa, (Iowa State University in Ames, IA is currently the epicenter of the Covid pandemic "globally", and had planned to have 25,000 fans attend their home opener.) and Illinois, where they have the capacity to test their student body twice a week.

American College Football

It's official, this is the new culture war the GOP has decided to wage in the midst of a pandemic. When the Big 10 and Pac 12 made it official they plan to not have fall sports, many looked to the other three conferences that make of the Power 5, the five largest conferences for collegiate sports. As mentioned above, a litany of GOP members of Congress, and the President have been pushing for American football to return. A host of players have been using a hashtag on social media, #WeWantToPlay, a sentiment also tweeted by the president. The call has become more than just supporting the sports return, but an intentional action to not let "liberals" win. Of the fifteen states that host schools in the remaining three conferences, thirteen have GOP governors. Sports writer Darren Rovell has pointed out not only that these states are among the places where the virus is spreading, but also that the information provided to the conferences is not different, only their "risk tolerance". This is spot on considering legendary American football coach Lou Holtz said “When they stormed Normandy, they knew there were going to be casualties,” a take that blatantly disrespects the sacrifices made by American soldiers fighting Fascism while some how also reaffirming one of the darker truths about sports in America, that it serves as structure for violence. Additionally, soldiers were trained and prepared to fight in a war-zone, collegiate athletes didn't sign up to risk their lives to a contagious virus (they signed up to suffer catastrophic head injuries, and violent maiming. Very different). Especially considering infected athletes are now reporting myocarditis it seems that people won't take this seriously until an athlete dies on the field. However considering 85% of the athletes are Black, maybe even that won't do it.

Despite the NCAA cancelling all fall sports championships, and two of the five power conferences pushing their season to likely spring, the NCAA plans to have the College Football Playoff this fall. The virus has been tearing through American college football programs, including 2019 Semi-Finalist Oklahoma Sooners, which as of this writing has 17 active cases. The University of North Carolina has resumed American football activities after an outbreak, even though students aren't attending in person instruction because the positivity rate on campus is over 30%. The University of Alabama, a perennial favorite every season, had over 500 confirmed cases on campus over a four day period. This exercise in futility is best exemplified by Central Arkansas, who has changed their opponent schedule seven times already this year. Additionally the FBS Top 25 Poll (voted on by the media) features nine teams on it from conference who will not play this fall. The reason they continue down this obviously treacherous path is purely financial, last season the storied "New Years Six" and CFB Playoff Final payed out $549 million to participating schools.

Succumbing to political pressure from the president, and likely considering financial incentives, the BIG10 has reversed it's August decision to cancel it's football season, and now is targeting an late October return. The president enthusiastically supported the decision, seemingly implying he was involved in the decision. The details for return are still coming in, but it appears there are two things that do not bode well for the season. The first is that a positive rate of 5% will shut a team down. Already multiple teams (including a Michigan State University) reached that thresh hold at least once this year. Additionally if the area where the team is based exceeds 7.5%, operations would shut down. Earlier this year Iowa City hit 30%, home of the University of Iowa Hawkeye. BIG10 has also decided that a positive test will remove a player for minimum of 21 days. When there is an inevitable case of a high profile QB being asymptomatic, or a defensive end recovering on the 15th day for a big clash, we'll see how committed they are to that. LSU coach Ed Orgeron let media know most of his team has already been infected, leading to a practice featuring three line-men. None of these plans so far have any information about reporting requirements.

The decision is even more laughable when considering the two weeks of fixtures has been bizarre. Power 5 conference teams lost to lowly Sun-Belt Conference squads, Brigham Young University traveled to an empty Navy stadium in Annapolis, Maryland, crushing a Navy team that hasn't done any live tackling. BYU had lined up a fixture against Army, only to have to reschedule after a slew of positive tests.

The Future of Sport

Spectators

First and foremost, the likelihood of spectators returning to sport events seems remote in most places, especially in-door venues. Anyone that has been to a sporting event recently before the pandemic (as this Editor did) reveals how far we have to go. First and foremost is getting into the arena, where spectators usually queue in line before entering the stadia. This puts people in very close proximity, touching doors, turn-styles and going through metal detectors. The immediate correction for this would be to require spectators to enter at assigned doors at assigned times, but that seems a herculean effort even for a medium size arena like the Moda Center. Even if you accomplished this, you would need to ensure there is as little contact by personnel of spectators, so definitely no bag inspections, so no bags. No physical tickets either, everything would need to be digital (or many season ticket holders have physical cards). Before a match, many people would walk around, maybe purchase concessions or gear from the team store, that also would need to be nixed. Spectators wanting refreshment likely would need to order on a device, that is delivered to their seat. You would also likely need to request to use the restroom, to avoid queuing there as well. Physical distancing while seated seems impossible as well without reducing the number of spectators by 2/3's, and spectators probably need to be at least ten yards from the playing surface.

Soon we will have examples of spectators attending competitions in the United States, where the virus is still spreading uncontrollably. Two Arkansas high school American football teams will compete in the Salt Bowl, an annual competition usually featuring 30,000 spectators. This year will only have 40% capacity, mandatory facial coverings and encouraging physical distancing. However the event will also feature a bunch of "safety theater" which will likely create a false sense of security for spectators, including pre-packaged concessions and frequent bathroom cleaning. Additionally the Southeastern Conference (SEC), among the most successful of the Power 5 conferences and home of the reigning national champions Louisiana State University, has received permission from many governors to allow spectators for American football matches expected to start in late September. The protocols they have have created, are a combination of safety theater and personal responsibility which is wholly inadequate, especially considering that at the campuses of most of the schools, outbreaks have been rampant.

Competitors

The fiasco in the MLB puts this into stark contrast; How can you enforce athletes following physical distancing and hygiene guidelines if you don't monitor their movements and behaviors completely? While some authoritarian governments may play a role in some countries, others with more liberal laws regarding freedom of movement and expression are likely in trouble. Many leagues probably do not want to add pandemic related stipulations to contracts, because that would likely require more compensation on behalf of the players. But that rudimentary issue pales compared to the amount of testing required. Based on the NBA protocol, they likely perform more than 1,200 tests a week. NHL performed 7,245 tests over two weeks. These are resources that are being redirected for entertainment, rather than public health. The NBA has stepped up by offering Covid-19 tests in the markets of their teams, but this is a drop in the bucket for the testing required in the US. You could limit certain player behavior when they are practicing or playing, but not on there own time. All it takes is one player to slip up for the entire system to collapse.Or you could have situation like Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, who revealed himself to be a mask-truther and dropped this gem:

"I want to respect what other people's concerns are. For me personally, just talking no one else can get the virus, what is your concern if you could get it, I would say I'm gonna go about my daily life. If I get it, I'm gonna ride it out. I'm gonna let nature do its course. Survival-of-the-fittest kind of approach. And just say, if it knocks me out, it knocks me out. I'm going to be OK. You know, even if I die. If I die, I die. I kind of have peace about that."

No word if Cousins is okay with him infecting someone else leads to their death.

Outside of the protocols for professional leagues The Basketball Tournament (TBT), an annual semi-professional competition with a $1 million prize, took place in Ohio. Partnering with John Hopkins Tara Kirk Sell, organizers set about developing a strategy to hold the tournament. By the end of the competition, all participants were negative for Covid, however initially thirty participants tested positive, and there were multiple instances of risky behavior, including shaking hands after a match and sharing an ice pack. The plan they developed is likely closer to possible replication in lower levels, but still requires an extraordinary amount of resources that still are not widely available.

Advertisers

To make up for lost revenue, expect way more advertisements. Although we in the United States have mostly avoided big advertisements on playing surfaces, or on uniforms, expect that to change dramatically. MLS removed it's league patch from all uniforms, so teams could add sponsors on each sleeve, as well as putting a huge blue wall opposite the primary camera to show no less than fourteen different advertisements. NBA allows the "home team" to digitally add at least six advertisements on the court, while maintaining electronic boards around the court near the floor, and massive electronic boards around 3/4's of the arena. Expect to see large advertisements places over thousands of covered empty seats in football and American football stadiums. One group that may actually financially benefit from no American football college season is broadcasters. While NFL regularly tops twenty million viewers, college rarely tops seven million. Likely a related to the number of games available on Saturday opposed to Sunday, the TV rights for the Big Ten is $2.6 billion, triple the rate pre-2017. A top-10 match-up generated about $81,000 per 30-second advertisement, basically breaking even. The NFL match-up featuring teams from the same state generated $400,000 per 30-second spot. Industry analysts believe advertisement purchasing will drop by 20% in 2020.