Predictions[edit]
Most likely outcome[edit]
   | 5 | Hung Parliament (Conservatives largest party) |
| -5 | Hung Parliament (Labour largest party) |
Who will lose their seats[edit]
The Portillo moments
have become everyones favourite election spectacle
Other predictions[edit]
Lots of people have drawn similarities between the Brexit referendum and the rise of Trump. I didn’t think that Britain would vote to leave the EU, but I expected Trump to get elected after seeing the same anti-establishment sentiment occur in my country in the referendum.
My guess is the UK election will signify what will happen in the US next year. If Corbyn is defeated badly then I can’t see Bernie winning the Democratic Primary or the Presidency. —RWRW (talk) 15:01, 8 December 2019 (UTC)
- Seconded. Minish (talk) 14:34, 11 December 2019 (UTC)
I predict a hung parliament with ~300 seats for the Conservatives, and a Labour+SNP (~281+45) coalition government, or a confidence & supply. Following on from that, I predict indyref2 in 2021 - Sturgeon's bluffing by asking for it in 2020.
Furthermore, I predict Remain to win in a second EU referendum by the same thin margin as in 2016 (52:48).
My predicted outcome for indyref2 depends on the outcome of the People's Vote: I predict Yes will win by (60:40) if Leave wins again, and No to win by similar numbers to 2014 if Remain wins. (55:45) Minish (talk) 14:33, 11 December 2019 (UTC)
- I dunno. I’m still going with a Tory majority at this point, but I don’t think it will be the whopper that the pundits are saying. Hearing talk about Remainers tactical voting and that will probably put Labour over the line in a few marginals.
- Since the second EU referendum will be a choice between Corbyn's soft Brexit or no Brexit, I reckon Leavers will boycott it in droves. --RWRW (talk) 15:20, 11 December 2019 (UTC)
- Well, some people can't be pleased, eh?
- Personally, I think boycotting a 'soft Brexit' wouldn't be in most Leavers interests, since it would guarantee a Remain victory by an actual significant majority - a better mandate for remaining in the EU than the 2016 ref had for leaving. Minish (talk) 15:38, 11 December 2019 (UTC)
- I think a boycott is a fairly clever tactic. If enough people don't vote then that calls into question the legitimacy of the referendum. Of course we'll have to wait and see what this new deal looks like but it wouldn't surprise me if it does happen (all assuming Corbyn becomes MP though). --RWRW (talk) 16:33, 11 December 2019 (UTC)
The polls that don't matter since they're not the only good poll the Exit Poll[edit]
- CON 339 (-20) \ LAB 231 (+20) \ LIB 15 (+3) \ BXP 0 (-) \ GRN 1 (-) \ SNP 41 (-2) \ PC 4 (-) \ Other 1 (-) \ NI 18 (Majority: 28)
The BBC Exit Poll[edit]
Ipsos Mori @ BBC - CON 368 (+80) \ LAB 191 (-52) \ SNP 55 (+20) \ LIB 13 (-7) \ PLD 3 (-) \ GRN 1 (-) \ BXP 0 (-) \ Others 19 (Majority: 86)
The Results[edit]
CON: 1 (+1)
LAB: 2 (-1)
SNP: 0 (-)
LIB: 0 (-)
DUP: 0 (-)
SFE: 0 (-)
PLD: 0 (-)
GRN: 0 (-)
BXP: 0 (-)
UUP: 0 (-)
ALL: 0 (-)
Undeclared: 647
YOUTHQUAAAAKE[edit]
Is this latest Savanta ComRes poll them realising the <30's seem to be voting this time? Many booths have said it's significantly busier. McUrist (talk) 14:01, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- Yes, oddly large queues have been reported all around the country regardless of seat. Higher turnout usually benefits us (Labour) but we'll see in 8 hours.
- My family has all voted now. Minish (talk) 14:24, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- I voted about an hour ago and it was basically empty, but that’s probably just an anomaly. Farage has been saying there will be a low turnout, but my guess is he’s going to be wrong. —RWRW (talk) 14:42, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- Farage? Wrong? Never. I feel like he must be related to Wheatley, designed to come up with the worst possible option.
- Though its curious the surge: the registrations say the turnout won't be extreme, but personal observations say the engagement is much higher. I know two people who were registered, but didn't vote (last time). One who usually takes a Xmas holiday overseas, but is postal voting this time.McUrist (talk) 15:20, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- It's as confirmed as it's going to be - Conservatives have e-mailed their members about high Labour turnout. YOUTHQUAKE! Minish (talk) 17:10, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- Canterbury has apparently set up another polling station in it's university to cope with overwhelming demand. (Canterbury being the ultra-marginal that swung +20.5% Labour in 2017 after 99 years of Conservative hold) Minish (talk) 21:35, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
Exit Poll[edit]
I don't want to live on this planet any more McUrist (talk) 22:27, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- no no no no no no Minish (talk) 22:28, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- What happened? Did The conservatives won? Tinribmancer (talk) 23:14, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- Looks like the Conservatives are going to win a landslide, even I'm surprised. My guess is the exit poll will be accurate, it was pretty accurate in 2010 and 2015 and almost spot on in 2017.
- SNP are set to win 55 of the 59 Scottish seats, that probably means Jo Swinson is out. Ironic that only a few weeks ago she thought she'd be the next PM. --RWRW (talk) 00:05, 13 December 2019 (UTC)
- swinson could have taken the caretaker government 2 months ago. this happened because of her. i hope her stupid party suffers immeasurably Minish (talk) 00:11, 13 December 2019 (UTC)
- I'll agree with you on that. Ironic that the most anti-Brexit party passed on their last chance to stop Brexit. --RWRW (talk) 00:23, 13 December 2019 (UTC)
Radicalizing[edit]
I predict this will have a radicalizing effect, as many of Corbyn's supporters will be stung badly by the results. It maybe the impetus for the revitalizing of the left in the UK as 2016 was here in the US. — Oxyaena Harass 23:20, 12 December 2019 (UTC)
- It might, but I suspect most of the population will be reduced to the level of willing precariats before any resistence forments. — Unsigned, by: McUrist / talk / contribs