Crazification factor
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Crazification factor (alternatively known as the "Keyes constant"[1]) is a neologism coined in 2005 by blogger and screenwriter John Rogers[2] to refer to the portion of the electorate comprising the nuttiest of the wingnuts and the batshit crazy, or at least the most diehard partisans.
In popular usage, it is an application of the Texas sharpshooter fallacy, in which you call attention only to data supporting your proposition: you will find endless examples of people online crying "Crazification factor!" when 20-30% of people do something — anything — the speaker doesn't like, or are even polled as holding an opinion they don't like.[1][3]
Rogers later stressed that the phrase was a joke, not some serious statistical proposition.[4]
Origin of the term[edit]
Rogers was writing of the 2004 Senate election in Illinois:
“”Obama vs. Alan Keyes. Keyes was from out of state, so you can eliminate any established political base; both candidates were black, so you can factor out racism; and Keyes was plainly, obviously, completely crazy. Batshit crazy. Head-trauma crazy. But 27% of the population of Illinois voted for him.[5] They put party identification, personal prejudice, whatever ahead of rational judgement. Hell, even like 5% of Democrats voted for him. That's crazy behaviour. I think you have to assume a 27% crazification factor in any population.[2]
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Another factor in Obama's favor at the time that Rogers didn't mention is that the original Republican candidate, Jack Ryan,[6] had been forced to suspend his candidacy after his divorce and custody records were released to the press, revealing that he had taken his former wife, actress Jeri Ryan,[7] to various sex clubs (including, in at least one case, a bondage club) and tried to have her perform sex acts on him out in the open.[8] Keyes was the GOP's last-minute replacement on the ticket after the sordid details of Ryan's divorce came out. So not only was it a normal candidate running against a clearly crazy opponent, but the crazy guy also had the baggage of the last guy's sex scandal following him, and had been drafted into the campaign as a hastily-drawn Plan B candidate with little time to prepare.[9]
See also[edit]
References[edit]
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 The Alan Keyes Constant, Chicago Magazine, 21 April 2011.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Lunch Discussions #145: The Crazification Factor, Kung Fu Monkey, 7 October 2005.
- ↑ No, Rob Ford’s re-election isn’t certain. It’s not even likely., John Michael McGrath, blog, December 1, 2012
- ↑ https://twitter.com/jonrog1/status/390299744561410049
- ↑ And it wasn't fully representative of die-hard Republicans: 40% of conservatives voted for Obama, while Keyes managed to get 24% from Independents.
- ↑ No relation to the character from several of Tom Clancy's novels.
- ↑ Best known for playing Seven of Nine on Star Trek: Voyager. Yeah. Coincidentally, she also worked with John Rogers on his TV series Leverage.
- ↑ Ryan file a bombshell: ex-wife alleges GOP candidate took her to sex clubs, Chicago Tribune, 22 June 2004.
- ↑ Keyes challenges Obama for Illinois Senate seat, CNN, 9 August 2004.