Forum:Recession or not

This discussion was moved here from Saloon bar.

Nobody has any free time; 76% still believe we're in a Recession. nobs^{Corporations are people, too.} 20:05, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

Damn it, Rob...--"Shut up, Brx." 20:07, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

Price of fish, Robby, price of fish. Vulpius (talk) 20:08, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

Hide your head in the sand, if you wish. The ABC/Washington Post poll says 68 percent of Democrats and 77 percent of independents believe the country is still in Recession. I'm just trying to give you rookies & amatuers some help here. nobs^{Corporations are people, too.} 20:13, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

That would be the US I suppose? There being other countries.--Bob^{"What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence."} 20:25, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

One of the things I've noticed with extremist nutters is that, for them, their particular slant on the "truth" is so obvious that they cannot possibly conceive of any other viewpoint holding any validity. Remember EL and his "anyone who is not extreme pro life is an amoral murderer"? Similarly Rob feels that anyone who doesn't see things his way is a deluded dupe. Milage may vary. Bad Faith (talk) 20:30, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

EL? External link? Easy Lover? Edward Lorenz? Elevated railway? Electric Lights? Estonian pro-Lifer? I think we should be told. Sophie^{because liberals} 20:42, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

That would be Earthland who may actually have been Estonian (or something from the Baltic region). Генгис^{You have the right to be offended; and I have the right to offend you.} 02:08, 16 April 2012 (UTC)

(EC)Actually I'm pro-Obama. I'm for leveling the playing field for U.S. workers with the rest of the world. It's not right that the U.S. is only 2% of the earth's population and consumes 25% of its crude oil. Similarly, it's not fair a U.S. convenience store clerk earns the minimum wage of $7.25 per hour while someone of equal skill and ability in Indonesia makes $2 a day to perform the same job. Obama's right, it's time we level the playing field. nobs^{Corporations are people, too.} 20:44, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

The difference is Rob, that we think the international playing field should be levelled up, and not the US playing field being levelled down. Генгис^{You have the right to be offended; and I have the right to offend you.} 02:11, 16 April 2012 (UTC)

That would be possible if there were an international currency you could inflate while holding the dollar at a relatively constant value. Absent that, the next quickest way is the Obama economic program of negligible growth while the rest of the planet is in Recovery. nobs^{Corporations are people, too.} 00:29, 17 April 2012 (UTC)

I think the fact that most every thread gets derailed as above contributes to it being a less fun place to hang out than it would otherwise be. Weaseloid^{Methinks it is a Weasel} 20:50, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

What would you prefer? "Andy's an idiot". "Ken's an idiot". "Ed Poor's an idiot". "Karajou's an idiot". Would that steer things back on track? nobs^{Corporations are people, too.} 20:55, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

No thanks. Wěǎšěǐǒǐď^{Methinks it is a Weasel} 21:01, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

How about "Rob's an idiot"? Ace^Moderator

And the proof of that would be quitting CP to come to RW, correct? nobs^{Corporations are people, too.} 21:07, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

No, the proof is you insisting youd be allowed back in, and it coming true. --il'Dictator Mikal 21:09, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

The proof lies in coming from CP to RW and still talking absolute garbage and interrupting conversations to rant about Obama. You are an idiot, go away. Sophie^{because liberals} 21:14, 15 April 2012 (UTC)

Reply to original claim

Rob, call this original research but I believe the number comes from confusion of the term "recession". Is the economy still below what it was before the 2007-2009 economic collapse? Yes. In that sense, the "recession" is arguably still going on.

However, what many define as the "recession" is the state of job losses going on. Right now, jobs are being gained, not lost. In that sense, the economy is not receding, it is growing. Mr. Anon (talk) 01:47, 16 April 2012 (UTC)

Neither of those have anything to do with what a recession is. A recession is usually defined as two or more consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, although a few economists use unemployment (a 1.5% increase over the course of a year being a recession). But using the more common measure, that of GDP, the US has not been in a recession since Q3 2009. P-Foster Talk "The existing superstructure has handed out crumbs. We don’t want crumbs; we want the whole loaf now.” --Ras Frank I 02:24, 16 April 2012 (UTC)

Yes, that's all perfectly true. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Here you see in 2003 how the lagging indicator of job creation turned around 18 months after the official end of the Recession. Phil Gramm writes,

On average, three years after the four deepest previous recessions started, real GDP was 7.6% higher than the pre-recession level. During the Obama recovery, real GDP is up only 0.1%. Forty months after the start of the 1953, 1957, 1973 and 1981 recessions, total employment was on average 4.7% higher than the pre-recession peaks, while total employment today is still down 4.7%—that's a total employment gap of 13.9 million jobs.

And you see that borne out by BLS data. But perceptions are everything, and if 76% believe we're in a jobs recession -- as the data evidences -- we're probably still in a jobs recession. nobs^{Corporations are people, too.} 17:44, 16 April 2012 (UTC)

Ah, but you fail to take into account that orange juice consumption has fluctuated wildly since 1887. Omar (gibber) 17:49, 16 April 2012 (UTC)

Relocated

I have relocated this page to "Recession or not" after the beginnings of a tussle over the name. I hope it suits.--^talk 00:43, 17 April 2012 (UTC)