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Draft:Ponzi scheme
I, the crown prince of Nigeria, offer you Scams |
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Hook, line, and sinker |
Totally sounds legit! |
A Ponzi scheme is a fraud, disguised as an unusually good investment, with occasional payouts to those who demand them, despite exorbitant commissions; returns don't come from income/profit/value as claimed/expected, but instead from new participants:
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—Professor Jorge Stolfi, State University of Campinas[1]
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In Jazz-age North America, Charles Ponzi became infamous for promoting high-yield (50% in 45 days or 100% in 90 days) investment schemes; profits he claimed came from arbitrage were, in fact, entirely bogus, and he was just paying earlier investors with money from newer ones all along.[2][3] Ponzi cost his "investors" so much ($20 million, equivalent to $258 million in 2022) that the scheme now bears his name even though he did not invent it.[4]
Related phenomena[edit]
The term "Ponzi" is often used for any economic phenomenon driven by a mistaken belief in a mathematical impossibility. Most notably, economist Hyman Minsky's 1992 discussion of the "Ponzi" phase of debt accumulation was widely discussed in the aftermath of the Great Recession.[5]
Pyramid schemes[edit]
In common use, Ponzis[6] are confused with pyramid schemes so frequently the two terms are used interchangeably - but they differ distinctly in presentation and operation:
Ponzi scheme | Pyramid scheme | Notes | |
---|---|---|---|
The money goes… | …through the scammer as a central "hub"; the scammer interacts with most/all suckers directly | …from the bottom of the scheme to the top toward the scammer, so that suckers only/mostly interact with other suckers near the bottom of the pyramid | |
Suckers are told… | …deceitfully that the money comes from a secret/esoteric investment strategy, and the scheme is often marketed to high-net-worth individuals | …openly that money comes from product sales or, in more extreme/illegal cases, only from new suckers | Openly ≠ ethically! |
The scheme usually lasts… | …rather longer than pyramid schemes because suckers are often convinced to re-invest | …not as long as Ponzi schemes because they require more suckers to sustain |
Speculative asset bubbles[edit]
In an economic bubble, like in a Ponzi, early participants profit from later participants' contributions. But unlike Ponzis, bubbles aren't created or perpetuated per se by deceit; bad faith isn't necessary because stupidity is more than enough. Civil or criminal consequences can only result only if a party misrepresents the facts of an investment to inflate its value.
However, Blockchain-based token systems like cryptocurrencies (i.e., Bitcoin) and NFTs are a unique case because they're Ponzi-like by design.[7]
Notable Ponzis[edit]
Notably NOT Ponzis[edit]
No, Social Security is not a Ponzi; neither is reserve banking or fiat currency. See here for a brief analysis of this incredibly tired and oft-refuted lie.
References[edit]
- ↑ "Bitcoin is a Ponzi". Retrieved 4-5-22.
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(help) - ↑ "Business & Finance: Ponzi Payment". Time. January 5, 1931. ISSN 0040-781X. Archived from the original on June 23, 2011. Retrieved July 16, 2013.
- ↑ Greenough, William Croan (January 31, 1949). "Take My Money!". Time. ISBN 0-256-08657-5. Archived from the original on May 16, 2009. Retrieved December 21, 2008.
In Italy, Ponzi got on the good side of Mussolini's Fascists, was sent to Rio de Janeiro as business manager for Italy's LATI airlines. The war ended his job; after that he eked out a meager existence as a translator. Committed to a Rio charity ward, blind in one eye and partly paralyzed, he said not long ago: 'I guess the only news about me that most people want to hear is my death.'
- ↑ "In Ponzi We Trust". Smithsonian. December 1998. Retrieved December 21, 2008.
Ponzi himself was probably inspired by the remarkable success of William "520 percent" Miller, a young Brooklyn bookkeeper who in 1899 fleeced gullible investors to the tune of more than $1 million.
- ↑ Minsky, Hyman P. (May 1992). "The Financial Instability Hypothesis" (PDF). Working Paper No. 74. pp. 6–8.
- ↑ Yes, it's capitalized, like Boycott, Lynch, Hamburger and Sandwich
- ↑ The Intellectual Incoherence of Cryptoassets by Stephen Diehl (November 7, 2021).