Forum:2015 UK General Election

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See the main article on this topic: United Kingdom general election, 2015

See also RationalWiki:UK General Election, 2015/Election night special

The date of dissolution will be 30 March 2015 and the election will be held on 7 May 2015, unless parliament votes for an earlier date. There are no additional elections scheduled to take place in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, apart from any forthcoming local by-elections.

Currently, you have David Cameron as Prime Minister and Leader of the Conservative Party, who's in a coalition government with Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Democrats. Ed Miliband, head of the Labour Party, is the Leader of the Opposition, in open defiance of the universe's logic and bounds of reason. Cameron's Tories have 306 seats; they need 20 to obtain a majority. Miliband's Laborites have 258 seats; they need 68 to become the governing party. Clegg's Leb Dems have 57 seats; they need 269 to become the governing party.

You also have the United Kingdom Independence Party led by Nigel Farage looking to be the spoiler; they'll most likely become the designated third party if Clegg gets as demolished as we all think he will. In a move reminiscent of Americans, the British ministers have increased the money money that each party can spend on the election by 23%, against Electoral Commission advice. Serocco (talk) 19:20, 1 January 2015 (UTC)

I don't entirely understand the logic of dissolving a large chunk of your government for 2 months just because of an Election, what if you need parliament specifically instead of the ministers and stuff?--Miekal 19:26, 1 January 2015 (UTC)

I... didn't think of it that way. Lemme see... they will review the amount of seats parliament can have in 2018 (it's at 650, and they might bump it down to 600). There was a referendum in 2011 that mandated a change from the current 'first past the post' system system to an instant-runoff system for elections to the Commons, which is what Australia has as well. Why dissolve before the election? I have no idea, but I do like the change to instant-runoff. Serocco (talk) 19:38, 1 January 2015 (UTC)

The 2011 alternative vote referendum failed & the UK remains a 'first past the post' democracy. According to WP:Dissolution of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, "The Parliament of the United Kingdom is dissolved 17 working days before a polling day as determined by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011". ΨΣΔξΣΓΩΙÐ^{Methinks it is a Weasel} 20:36, 1 January 2015 (UTC)

Well, dammit. So much for reform on that front for Britain.Serocco (talk) 21:29, 1 January 2015 (UTC)

Yeah, why dissolve? Whose idea was this? FuzzyCatPotato of the Female Belts (talk/stalk) 23:52, 1 January 2015 (UTC)

@Mikhail: Here in Belgium there was no government for over one year as various parties tried to work out a colation. Things in fact went along very swimmingly. Maybe even better than without a government. Maybe we should just always have a dissolved parliament huh? ShabiDOO 18:25, 13 January 2015 (UTC)

I think it was the Tories who proposed it. Bizarrely. Serocco (talk) 03:32, 2 January 2015 (UTC)

The number of seats is not going down to 600. The Conservatives wanted it, but the Lib Dems, having lost the AV referendum, vetoed the plan to reduce seats as it would have hurt them the most. So it's as you were, basically. Bicycle^wheel 12:38, 3 January 2015 (UTC)

I hope UKIP wins all the seats^{— Unsigned, by: 58.106.31.173 / talk / contribs}

You support UKIP? That explains why you don't understand how to sign posts.

Anyway, to respond to an earlier point, parliament doesn't actually run the government on a day-to-day basis so dissolving it doesn't stop government. It's dissolved to allow all the members to dedicate themselves full time to getting re-elected. --Bob^{"I think you'll find it's more complicated than that."} 12:58, 3 January 2015 (UTC)

So who wins? Serocco (talk) 20:08, 4 January 2015 (UTC)

whichever party wins a majority of seats. If nobody does (as happened last time), then two or more parties will form a coalition. Bicycle^wheel 20:14, 4 January 2015 (UTC)

Not "how to win." I meant who will win? Serocco (talk) 23:11, 4 January 2015 (UTC)

a labor majority is being bet on at 7/2, a conservative at 9/2, ukip at 150/1 and lib dem at 500/1. A conserv lib dem coalition is at 9/2, a lab libdem is at 5/1. Any coalition with ukip is at 10/1 and a conservaTive ukip is at 14/1. Not being into bets and hating fractions I Don't know which is the most likely while on break with a phone. --Miekal 00:27, 5 January 2015 (UTC)

With those odds, the bookies' favourites are (from most to least likely to win):

1. Labour outright
2. Conservative outright or in a Tory/Lib coalition (same odds)
3. Lib/Lab coalition
4. Any UKIP coalition
5. Tory/UKIP (less likely than other UKIP constellations, apparently)
6. UKIP outright (very unlikely)
7. LibDem outright (yeah right, guess this possibility has to be taken into account, if for nothing else then for the lulz)

ScepticWombat (talk) 07:45, 5 January 2015 (UTC)

How is Ed Miliband being considered for the premiership on those odds? >.< Serocco (talk) 22:40, 5 January 2015 (UTC)

It's crap that he could win over 50% of seats with 35% of the vote, but that's the system we're stuck with. Anyway, here's a good website if you want to geek it up. Bicycle^wheel 16:48, 6 January 2015 (UTC)

True, but in my massively partisan world, FPTP does stop a UKIP victory Leander (talk) 05:05, 13 January 2015 (UTC)

Actually, how big of an impact could the SNP make on the election? Could they force a hung parliament? Serocco (talk) 16:21, 19 January 2015 (UTC)

The most favourable prediction for Labour I've seen had them in with a majority of about fifty-six (353 seats). If the SNP take thirty seats that would leave Labour on 323 - two short of a Majority, but still able to govern as Sinn Fein won't turn up to vote, and the Speaker always votes with the government if there's a tie. Bicycle^wheel 16:31, 19 January 2015 (UTC)

According to this, falling oil prices are undermining SNP support (the Nationalists have been saying for forty years an independent Scotland could pay its way with the black stuff). Bicycle^wheel 17:30, 19 January 2015 (UTC)

Can a coalition government between Labour and the SNP occur? Serocco (talk) 13:29, 20 January 2015 (UTC)

In theory, yes. In practice, they don't like each other very much. But then neither did the Conservatives and Lib Dems five years ago. Bicycle^wheel 14:19, 20 January 2015 (UTC)

Would that make Miliband PM and Sturgeon Deputy PM? Serocco (talk) 18:22, 22 January 2015 (UTC)

Miliband would become prime minister. Sturgeon isn't running for the UK parliament, but Alex Salmond is; if he gets in and leads the SNP group in London, he could become Deputy PM, but seeing how Nick Clegg got steamrollered in that job, he might try for something more substantial. Bicycle^wheel 20:33, 23 January 2015 (UTC)

Does it necessarily have to be a current party leader that gets the Prime Minister post? Labour running with a more likable candidate for PM would greatly increase their odds and they don't necessarily need to 'dethrone' Milliband to do so. In my country politicians generally try to avoid holding multiple high positions (e.g. party leader, minister, mayor). 141.134.75.236 (talk) 22:06, 27 April 2015 (UTC)

No. This can't be. This is [[User:Mkbw50]], signing out! (talk) 21:21, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Hold hope.--Miekal 21:30, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

My dad, who lives outside my house was apparently crying. So was I. This is awful. It's not that LAB is shorter than CON, it's that LAB + SNP + PC + GRN + SDLP < CON. Even if LD were to add to that it would still be one less than CON. This is [[User:Mkbw50]], signing out! (talk) 21:35, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

As always, await the actual results, not an exit poll. The latter can be wrong, the former won't.--Miekal 21:38, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Last time it was spot on. http://prntscr.com/72psg7 shows a lot (Source: Pokémon Showdown Deates and Discussions chat. Not the biggest range of ppl but still, the young should be who LAB do well with, not who support CON.)This is [[User:Mkbw50]], signing out! (talk) 21:41, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

For what it's worth, Nate Silver's website, FiveThirtyEight, said CON 272 and LAB 271 after the exit poll. Serocco 00:56, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Ooh nate's looking our way? Linky plz. Bicycle^wheel 00:59, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Ah, updated results from their calculations. Currently, they expect 300 for the Tories. :( Serocco 01:01, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Results all but in, the Tories having converted their minority coalition to a majority government; the Libdems having been wiped out on a biblical scale; and Labour having been trashed by the rise of nationalism in Scotland. This means the Tories can now rule without the restraint of the Libdems that kept them back from gutting the NHS completely, wiping out our civil freedoms and rights to privacy, and slashing benefits to catastrophically dysfunctional levels, and it increasingly looks like the Union and our place in the EU may not last another 5 years. This is truly a dark day for us on the left-wing in the UK. Will anyone be joining me in drinking away the sorrows later today? :D DarkFire (talk) 10:41, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

I can't see the Union breaking up within five years, since there was already a failed referendum on Scottish independence so recently. ωεαşεζøίɗ^{Methinks it is a Weasel} 10:54, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

What happens if, in the forthcoming EU referendum, the UK votes to leave but Scotland votes to stay? Bicycle^wheel 18:40, 11 May 2015 (UTC)

Depends on the terms of the referendum. There's been talk of a "double majority" requirement wherein withdrawal would have to be backed by a majority vote from each home nation. In the what currently feels more likely scenario that it's a straightforward simple majority referendum and the outcome you describe comes to pass, there will probably be yet a further tack towards the SNP by Scottish voters. Grumblejaws (talk) 21:53, 11 May 2015 (UTC)

There is nothing stopping Scotland from negotiating the general rights of abode and work in various countries in the EU while it waits the decade it takes to oficially join. I'm sure the vast majority of countries other than France and Spain would be willing to quickly implement them...meaning those with Scottish residency or New Scottish passports would be able to continue living in the Netherlands or Austria (and visa versa) while those with UK passports living in Germany for example...might find themselves having to apply for residency while England boots out their "hated" Romanian and Bulgarian "blood suckers".

I think Scotland could easily join schengen and all of the European organizations other than official EU blocks like the commission, parliament, joint currency, EU court of human rights etc. Switzerland after all is a member of Schengen but not of the EU. I think Scotland could do rather well in the interim leaving these few organs of the EU but rather easily maintaining everything else, again, just as Norway and Switzerland does (though the Swiss have backed out on the right of abode work). The hold outs (Spain and France) are bound to eventually accept Scotland and ratify their entrance...especially if their grumpy ex-patriots in England leave. It might be fast-tracked...and even if not...things would be a whole lot better being in semi-EU limbo than being castigated along with England. ShabiDOO 16:46, 12 May 2015 (UTC)