RationalWiki:UK General Election, 2015/Election night special

It's election night, a night of elation, disappointment and too much coffee. Here's our liveblog of the night. Enjoy.

See also Forum:2015 UK General Election

Exit poll

The BBC says: Conservatives 316 seats, Labour 239, Lib Dems 10, SNP 58. WHAT? Bicycle^wheel 21:03, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Hoping this is wrong... Bicycle^wheel 21:04, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

YouGov has a different exit poll: Conservatives 284, Labour 263, Lib Dems 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, Plaid Cymru 3, Greens 1. Moderately less bad. --SpecialFFrog (talk) 21:40, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

That one's more in line with all the opinion polls. Bicycle^wheel 21:47, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Assuming a Conservative victory: The EU Referendum, 2017

What would a possible "should we leave the EU?" referendum do to the prospects of Scottish Independence and SNP popularity in general?--Miekal 21:42, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Well we've moved here. I'm scared, though, look at this. http://prntscr.com/72psg7 (These are people from Pokémon Showdown. The scary thing is the young who play this should support LAB, not CON. Scary.)

In response to the EU, nothing, as an independent Scotland wouldn't get in the EU. Why? You need a unanimous vote of all EU members to get in. Spain would vote no. Catalonia is why. This is [[User:Mkbw50]], signing out! (talk) 21:47, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

First result

Houghton and Sunderland South Bicycle^wheel 21:56, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

It's a shame UKIP has to have such a great color and nice acronym name. And that they get 2nd place in an election. --Miekal 21:57, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Will UKIP be our secret saviours? Seeing as what happened in Houghton and Sunderland South they took the Tories into third. I hope so. This is [[User:Mkbw50]], signing out! (talk) 21:58, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

UKIP have patchy support, and seem to be strongest up the east coast of England. I don't think we can assume any national trends. But 18%... they could nick more seats than expected. Bicycle^wheel 22:03, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

3 Labour, but all in safe seats. Nothing special so far. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news Bazer63 (talk) 22:31, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Apparently the first marginal to declare will be Nuneaton at about 1am. Bicycle^wheel 22:34, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

If UKIP split the CON vote in half as they have been doing, that could be hope. This is [[User:Mkbw50]], signing out! [[User talk:Mkbw50]] (talk) 22:40, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

We'll have to see what happens in Tory seats. Bicycle^wheel 22:44, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

All three for Labour, all three with UKIP splitting the right vote. All three with women, too. Yet all were safe seats for Labour? This is gonna be bruising.Serocco (talk) 22:55, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

To be honest (and speaking as a woman) I don't think that affects how people vote much. Perhaps the ultra feminists who vote for any woman on the list are equally matched by male chauvinists who would never vote for a woman. Bicycle^wheel 23:00, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

In my experience it makes waves in headlines and almost nowhere else. WalkerWalkerWalker 23:02, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

George Galloway is struggling mightily against Labour. Who is he and why are people rejoicing at his possible defeat?Serocco (talk) 23:03, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

He got banned from Labour for protesting the Iraq War! What a great guy! But seriously, he's a bit of a twat. If the BNP are ridiculously Anti-Muslim, he is the opposite. He's a bit of a racist towards non-Muslims. His party, RESPECT (stands for Respect, Equality, Socialism, People, Environmentalism, Culture, and Trade Unionism, or something, good pub quiz.)is standing just four candidates, but he is an incumbent, winning in a by-election. This is [[User:Mkbw50]], signing out! [[User talk:Mkbw50]] (talk) 23:09, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Papers are running Blue Victory

--Miekal 23:06, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

WP:Dewey Defeats Truman. Bicycle^wheel 23:14, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Nonetheless.Serocco (talk) 23:22, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Would it be in bad taste for Milliband, if he became PM, to do a Truman snapshot with that?--Miekal 23:27, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Just let Twitter use photoshop over it and make the rounds, I think. He need not do a thing.Serocco (talk) 23:39, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Glasgow

Just hearing Labour might lose all seven seats in Glasgow. Bicycle^wheel 23:20, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Apparently the only place they might even put up a fight in scotland is in Edinburgh. --Miekal 23:22, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

The Scottish city they were historically weakest in. But Scotland has a strange electoral history, voting heavily for different parties in different decades. Bicycle^wheel 23:51, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Swindon

In the Southwest, Swindon North has a swing towards the conservatives. Bicycle^wheel 23:50, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

That was a Hold for the Tories, more specifically. Serocco (talk) 23:52, 7 May 2015 (UTC)

Bradford West

George Galloway has lost. Labour gain. Serocco (talk) 00:12, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Source? This is [[User:Mkbw50]], signing out! [[User talk:Mkbw50]] (talk) 00:38, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Somebody said so, but there's no declaration yet. Bicycle^wheel 00:44, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

I had previously seen a update in the Guardian saying that he was going to lose his seat, however the only definitive information about that election which I have come across is from the Daily Telegraph of all places (scroll down to 3:43). Alsto003 (talk) 03:07, 8 May 2015 (UTC) Alex

Galloway has been reported to the police by the returning officer for breaking electoral law over his tweets about the exit poll. Serocco (talk) 00:09, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Now people are saying

Now people (one or two) are saying there could be a Conservative overall majority. aaaargh. Bicycle^wheel 01:03, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Pardon the American, but I'm not yet sold on that prediction. WalkerWalkerWalker 01:04, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

50%? Naw, no way. 141.134.75.236 (talk) 01:06, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

We'd have to revise a few pages. On a sidenote, the labour party page is god awful and needs a rewrite by anybody who knows anything about it (the Conservative party page is similarly not very timeless, a major problem for us)--Miekal 01:11, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Also, really more like >50% of 650 - Sinn Féin and the speaker. WalkerWalkerWalker 01:23, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Explain to me the intelligence of Sinn Féin of getting seats and then helping the parties it doesn't like more by not showing up whatsoever. Like, A+ for ideological effort, but it seems to more hurt them in these cases--Miekal 01:24, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

What stops them taking their seats is having to take an oath of loyalty to the Queen - a bit of a no-no for a republican party. Bicycle^wheel 01:34, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

How the holy hell will David Cameron and George Osborne win a majority government? After five years? Serocco 01:28, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

You borked your sig. WalkerWalkerWalker 01:31, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Also, Douglas Alexander lost... to a 20 year old girl. Who is now the youngest MP since 1667. Serocco 01:41, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

"lost... to a 20 year old girl" Come on, dude, don't go there. Mhairi Black is a legit candidate in her own right. 141.134.75.236 (talk) 02:23, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

I was emphasizing her age more than anything. Youngest MP since 1667. Serocco 02:24, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

I guess British politics has been pretty ageist since 1667 then. 20 years doesn't sound super-young to me. 141.134.75.236 (talk) 02:30, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Two years out of high school/equivalent? It is a bit young--Miekal 02:34, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

A bit, yeah, but not to the extent you'd expect it to be once-in-3-centuries exceptional. 141.134.75.236 (talk) 03:09, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Jim Murphy (Scottish Labour Leader) loses

BBC is predicting a cleansweap for snp, with one possible hold for labour. --Miekal 02:13, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

They got one. WalkerWalkerWalker 03:38, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

And the beeb now has Orkney/Shetland LibDem and Clydesdale/Dumfriesshire/Tweddale (one seat) blue, so it appears that the SNP won't get that much of a sweep. WalkerWalkerWalker 04:26, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

BBC

Error 500 - Internal Error: it has begun. WalkerWalkerWalker 02:47, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

was wondering why the stream died--Miekal 02:51, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Lib Dems

"Many incumbent MPs will hang on." Welp, not even close. That right there is the demise of the party. What will become of Clegg and the party in general? Serocco 05:16, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

WalkerWalkerWalker 05:19, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Sounds about right.Serocco 05:26, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Great

UKIP snagged Clacton, and a bothersome percentage of votes in general. WalkerWalkerWalker 05:21, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Douglas Carswell might need an article soon, it seems, if he can be judged by company. WalkerWalkerWalker 05:28, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

The BBC are talking complete rubbish at the moment

Apparently next time UKIP are going to be the second party next time. I call bullshit. Bazer63 (talk) 06:50, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Nigel Farage has gone, and he was their best asset, so I think they'll struggle. Bicycle^wheel 10:07, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

The only way they'll make significant gains is to bring in some sort of PR. Which there will be a lot of support for, but it's unlikely to win favor with Con and Lab (who both stand to lose out) and given the results of the last referendum, there will be a strong argument that the country don't want it. Worm (talk) 10:10, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Five years of this

the horror...the horror... Bicycle^wheel 08:10, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Welp. So much for the NHS. Serocco 08:18, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

What I haven't heard mentioned in all this Tory & SNP wins/Labour & LibDem & UKIP loses is that the biggest "party" by far is the "couch party". From the current BBC numbers, the turnout was 66%, meaning that a third of eligible UK voters didn't turn up at the polls, significantly outnumbering the quarter of eligible voters who voted Tory or the fifth who voted Labour. ScepticWombat (talk) 08:22, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

I depend on the NHS a lot, suffering from many health issues as I do. My boyfriend also works for the NHS, in mental health specifically, which is already severely underfunded. This was painful to watch happen, and will be painful to watch unfold, and with Labour likely to follow the rhetoric that "going left didn't work", it wouldn't surprise me if we increasingly see a more Democratic Party-esque Labour Party. Thatcher may be dead, but her ghost will continue to haunt us it seems *sigh* DarkFire (talk) 13:48, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Cheer up. I doubt you guys are gonna turn into us (Americans) any time soon. Besides it is functionally impossible for a Parliamentary Party to become like one of the two parties we have especially the Democrats (a big tent party if there ever was one)... Alsto003 (talk) 14:01, 8 May 2015 (UTC) Alex

On the plus side the SNP has grown; may they stand up for those tired of austerity. --Aile Dhoo (talk) 09:34, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

My concern about that is with the Scottish elections coming next year, if similar results come then (which is not out of the realms of possibility) then there is going to be a serious lack of decent opposition (which is going to be the case to some degree in Westminster). Single party monopoly is almost never a good thing in the long term. Worm (talk) 09:47, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

There will need to be a debate about electoral reform; the French system at least and mixed electoral system at most to be the aims we need to strive for. We cannot have a system which MPs can win with under 40% of the votes placed as what happened in Ceredigion.

Still I am hopeful the SNP may provide a interesting voice in the opposition and their status as the representatives of Scotland gives a prestigious opportunity to stand their ground. David Cameron may process (almost at this stage) a majority of seats but I am hopeful the SNP will be tough in their stance. Mr Cameron is going to have hard time running 'one country' for a nation of the UK stands in defiance. --Aile Dhoo (talk) 09:56, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

There was already a debate about electoral reform, and a referendum about it, which failed to achieve anything. Wẽãšẽĩõĩď^{Methinks it is a Weasel} 10:41, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Sadly it was a debate which the no campaign used a lot of fallacies. The option also not the mixed voting system which would be best suited for us. Just because there was a referendum on it does not mean there will not be again; just ask Scotland if it comes likely the EU referendum is pushing towards a withdrawal. --Aile Dhoo (talk) 10:47, 8 May 2015 (UTC)

Of course there will be one again, but not for while. You can't have a referendum on the same issue, or a variant of the same issue, every couple of years. Wēāŝēīōīď^{Methinks it is a Weasel} 01:36, 9 May 2015 (UTC)

The latest election result has killed off any glimmer of hope for those wishing for UK election reform. This is the way the proponents of the Westminster system argue it's supposed to work, it's a feature, not a bug. Now, personally I think it's effed up, considering the ideal of one man one vote.

Test question: How many seats would 1 million votes get you in the 2015 UK general election? Is it:

1. - 29
2. - 25
3. - 36
4. - 3
5. - 44
6. - 22
7. - 17
8. - 30
9. - 18
10. - 0.26
11. - 0.86

The correct answer is, of course, any of the above. These are how many seats 1 million votes (would have) resulted in for each of the parties which gained an MEP (Tory, Labour, SNP, LibDem, DUP, Sinn Fein, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, UUP, UKIP, and the Greens. The number for the "Others" category is 6, btw).

And yes, I know it's a bit misleading to include the regional(ist) parties, because even in another form of electoral system, there would probably be special/separate elections in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales, just like today, but even if we strike the regionalist parties we still get 1 million votes getting you anything from 0.26 to 29 seats. ScepticWombat (talk) 19:20, 8 May 2015 (UTC)