White extinction scenario
|Some dare call it|
|What THEY don't want|
you to know!
|The colorful pseudoscience|
|Hating thy neighbour|
|Divide and conquer|
|Fanning the flames|
A white extinction scenario is any of several doomsday scenarios describing Caucasians or some demographic group associated with white people (typically Westerners, Protestants or Christians) would be heading towards a demographic crisis becoming a minority in some or all countries, possibly followed by extinction.
These scenarios are a kind of framing used to promote white supremacy or similar movements as self-defense, by describing non-whites, non-Christians and/or non-Westerners (notably Arabs, Hispanics and black people depending on context) as the aggressors in a clash of races or civilizations. When it comes to Arabs or Muslims, claims about white extinction might be associated with the Eurabia scenario.
A frequent (usually deliberate) mistake people make in discussing whites as a minority is lumping every non-white race as a blob of indistinguishable other. This mistake usually betrays the prejudices of the speaker. In actuality, given the 2010 United States Census with whites at 223.5 million and the next largest demographic of African Americans at 38.9 million, it's going to be a very, very long time before whites could potentially become a minority for legal purposes.
 Claims and gambits
Some claims usually made together with the white extinction scenarios are that:
- Low birth rates among white/Western communities could lead them to extinction, caused by abortion and family planning. Claimants might argue to restrict abortion or contraception to increase birth rates.
- Immigration could decrease the ratio of white people/Christians/Westerners in certain countries. According to conspiracy theories such as Eurabia, immigration into Western countries might be a deliberate strategy for colonization and/or demographic warfare.
- Miscegenation could cause a decline in "racial purity," leaving fewer unmixed white people with each generation.
- Multiculturalism could erode "white" or Western identity or values perceived as Western, including cultural traditions, "family values" or even democracy.
- Unorganized violence against white people, Christians or certain ethnic groups (such as the South African farm attacks) could be part of a persecution campaign.
White extinction scenarios usually rest on several logical fallacies, to feign an urgent threat towards white people.
 Definition of race and ethnicity
The concept of racial division is, by itself, controversial. According to many Western racial concepts, such as the one-drop rule, people of mixed origin are defined as non-white. As miscegenation has occurred through centuries, such definitions would make the ratio of white people smaller than more neutral definitions. The claims might rest on a confusion between race, religion or nationality, to inflate the ratio of non-whites. Some examples are defining ethnic groups that are traditionally Muslims and white (Albanians, Tatars, Turks, Levantines, etc.), or white Hispanics, as non-whites.
While some nations (United States, United Kingdom, etc) record self-identified race and religion as census data, other countries (France, Sweden, etc.) have no such records; one reason is the experience from World War II, where the Nazis used census records to facilitate the Holocaust. Therefore the statistics of people of a specific race or religion in a country might be an estimate, based on place of birth, parents' place of birth, etc. A Christian person descending from Iraq could count as a Muslim. A white person in Europe descending from white colonists in Africa could count as an African, or a black person.
The term "white" can vary by country and so can "percentage", and also the perception of who a white person is. For example, a man of white and mestizo (i.e., part-Native American) ancestry would be classified as white in Latin America, but not likely so in the United States. Supporters might regard colonized territories, such as the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand or South Africa as "white homeland," to find more case studies for the hypothesis. One can find a declining ratio of white people in parts of the western United States, but one should also be aware that whites have only been the majority population in that area for 150-200 years. South Africa has never had a white majority population.
An immigrant might be broadly defined as a person with one parent born abroad (or two, in some countries). This would count a natural-born British citizen with parents born in Ireland, as an immigrant, no matter how white and English-speaking they might be. Of course, this kind of definition inflates the ratio of immigrants.
 Definition of religious groups
There is no universal demographic measure for the size of a religion in a country. Different countries can use any of these variables:
- Membership of religious congregations
- Country of origin (see above)
- Self-identification in census
- Self-identification in opinion polls
In the United States, statistics for number of Christians are based on church membership. However, up to the late 19th century, only a minority of Americans were members of a church.
 Demographic factors
- The tempo effect: as the age of childbearing is increasing (which it is, in most high-income countries), the birth rate per capita, or current number of children per woman, declines, even though the total number of children per woman during fertile life stays largely constant.
- Most of the world's nations pass through a demographic transition, where family size decreases from 4-8 children per woman, to stable reproduction around 2 children per woman. Several countries (most of Asia and Latin America) have a birth rate at 2 children per woman; however, due to increasing life expectancy, and high birth rates a generation ago, their population is increasing.
- Their equivocation of decrease in the percentage of white people with decrease in the actual number. If we look at US census results, we see that whites comprised 75.1% of the total US population in 2000, and 72.4% in 2010 — giving the impression that whites have declined in number. But if we look at the actual population numbers we see that, between the ten years, the total number of whites actually rose from 211,460,626 to 223,553,265.
- Why does it matter what color your descendants are? Your black ancestors didn't seem to care.
- Proponents might compare the claimed decline of white people to genocide (as in a conspiracy), while diminishing real genocides, such as in Holocaust denial.
- Many far-right proponents of this concept in Western Europe also, somewhat bizarrely, oppose the immigration to their countries of white Eastern Europeans such as Poles almost as vehemently as they oppose non-white immigration, even though this is increasing the white population they claim to be so concerned for.
- Proponents also often chalk the scenario up to non-white immigration, ignoring the role of declining birth rates amongst whites. William Beveridge (a eugenics supporter) spoke of a need to "ensure the continuation of the British race [which at] its present rate of reproduction… cannot continue" as early as 1942, long before there was a substantial non-white presence in the United Kingdom.
- Even if you accept the dubious premises that the entire argument rests upon, there is no way of preventing the situation without banning international travel, banning international students and eliminating international lust. A substantial number of immigrants to "white" countries are on marriage visas, because some white person couldn't maintain their "commitment to racial purity" and fell in love with a non-white.
- Skin lightening occurred independently from different gene alleles in east vs. west Eurasia due to similar genetic pressure (the need for more vitamin D from reduced Sun exposure), i.e. convergent evolution.
 Some nice graphs
- Predicted European population by religion, without adherence to race. As most European countries neither keep census records for race nor religion, the Muslim identity is usually based on country of origin. The number of Muslims might include non-Muslims from Muslim countries.
- Predicted Muslim population in Europe, without adherence to race.
- Predicted population in the United States by race, without adherence to religion. As people of mixed origin, as well as white Hispanics are categorized as non-white, the ratio of whites is deflated.
 See also
- ↑ See the Wikipedia article on disappearing blonde gene. See also "Blonde Extinction" at Snopes.com for examples of the meme, some of them dating back to the 19th century.
- ↑ http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/is-the-end-of-white-christian-america-a-good-thing/article/2599494?custom_click=rss
- ↑ "Overview of Race and Hispanic Origin: 2010" (PDF). http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-02.pdf.
- ↑ A lot of Southern whites are a little bit black] by Christopher Ingraham (December 22, 2014) The Washington Post.
- ↑ 
- ↑ Peter Hennessy, Having It So Good: Britain in the Fifties (London: Allen Lane, 2006), p. 123.
- ↑ Genetic Evidence for the Convergent Evolution of Light Skin in Europeans and East Asians by Heather L. Norton et al. Mol. Biol. Evol. 24(3):710–722. 2007. doi:10.1093/molbev/msl203
- ↑ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/
- ↑ http://www.pewforum.org/2011/01/27/the-future-of-the-global-muslim-population/
- ↑ http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/percentage-non-hispanic-whites-hits-all-time-63-article-1.1371772