Gerontocracy

The white-bearded geezers ruling Iran in 2006

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Gerontocracy (meaning "rule by elders") is a term for a type of oligarchical rule where the offices of government or influence are held predominantly by those of middle age or older. Gerontocracy has roots in Ancient Greece, where Plato once said that "it is for the elderly to rule and for the young to submit." Gerontocracy has problems for any system of government in that it excludes or severely restrains the young from participating in the affairs of government, and hence only issues that the elderly are concerned about get any real attention.

Examples

Soviet Union

Gerontocracy started becoming increasingly prominent in the USSR from the 1970s onwards. By 1980, all members of the Politburo were in their 70s or older. Brezhnev himself died at the age of 75, but had a stroke ten years prior. By the last two years of his reign, he was so debilitated that he was little more than a figurehead. Among the eight Soviet leaders, only the last one, Mikhail Gorbachev, was born in the actual Soviet Union.

There had actually been something of a running theme of Soviet leaders dying of old age one after another. Yuri Andropov, Brezhnev's successor, only served for 15 months before croaking. His successor, Konstantin Chernenko, actually fared worse, somehow, only lasting for 13 months before kicking the bucket. Saint Ronnie, himself a noted gerontocrat, once said about this: "How am I supposed to get anywhere with the Russians if they keep dying on me?"

United States

It should come as no surprise that the good ol' US of A has a gerontocracy problem, rather sad for what was once a young nation born from revolution. Joe Biden, the current POTUS, is 81 years old. The man himself has said his age is a "valid issue for voter concerns." In fact, Biden is the oldest US President on record. During the 2024 election cycle, Biden came off as raspy and incoherent during the first round of presidential debates, and his campaign strategists went into panic mode before the debate even ended. Within a month of this disastrous performance, Biden dropped out of the election, becoming the first US president in history to do so after having already won his party's primaries.

Biden's immediate predecessor was little better, being elected into Office at the age of 70. Trump exhibited signs of dementia (an age-related spectrum of neurodegenerative diseases) while in Office. In fact, Trump's own pet ghoul, Steve Bannon, also apparently believed Trump had dementia. As Trump runs for president for a second (or third) term, he is showing increasing signs of confused speech, indicative of dementia.

The US Congress is nearly as bad, with 117th Congress (2021-2022) having an average age of 64.3 for Senators and 58.4 for Representatives. The Senate is especially notable for having its average age barely below the US age of retirement. It's even worse when one looks at lengths in office, with an average of 8.9 years for the House and 11.0 years in the Senate. In short, many of these people are goddamn fossils and have been around for a long time. Like the people involved, the problem is very old. Senator Robert Byrd, a Democrat from West Virginia, stayed in the Senate for 51 years, and Patrick Leahy, also a Democrat but from Vermont, had held his seat for 48 years. On the Republican side, former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been in office for 37 years, and Orrin Hatch of Utah was in office for 42 years. Senator Byrd's time in office especially illustrates the kind of time periods we're talking about. Byrd entered office in 1959, before the 1964 Civil Rights Act, and he stayed in office long enough to vote on Obamacare in 2010. Also, continuing the subject of Joe Biden from above, he held his seat in the Senate for 36 years.

An explanation for why gerontocracy exists in the United States is:

1. The median age per dollar donated to political campaigns is 66, far higher than the median age of the country as a whole.
2. Older people tend to be wealthier then younger people from life savings and retirement income.
3. The 2010 Supreme Court decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission increased the level campaign donations, particularly among wealthy people.
4. The age of the donor correlates roughly with the age of candidate that they financially support.

Problems

Cognitive decline

Cognitive impairment is a major health problem for the elderly. Studies show that the risk of cognitive impairment starts to rise significantly after age 70, and the prevalence of moderate to severe cognitive impairment in the US population 70 and over is about 9.5%. Symptoms of mental decline include forgetfulness, difficulty following a conversation, difficulty making decisions, and potentially shortness of temper or increased aggression. These are really traits which one should not find desirable in their national and world leaders. Cognitive decline is also a potential symptom of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, a point that raised the debate over whether Ronald Reagan was suffering from Alzheimer's while he was sparring and dealing with the Soviets from the White House.

For the United States, this has already had an impact on politics. In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, supporters of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump snidely raised concerns that the opposing candidate was getting slow in their old age. After Trump — good god — became President, his increasingly erratic and twisted speaking style combined with his obesity and age as risk factors led journalists and voters to speculate whether Trump was suffering from neurological problems and whether the US government was even equipped to deal with such an eventuality. Trump's successor Joe Biden, even older, suffered from such speculation as well, especially after he asked an audience where US Representative Jackie Walorski was when she had actually died in a widely-publicized car accident the previous month. US Representative Ronny Jackson of Texas went so far as to call on Biden to take a cognitive test and share the results. Despite partisanship motivating much of this furor, it is concerning for anyone when the most powerful men in the world, with a massive nuclear arsenal at their fingertips, are subject to the "should Dad still be driving" talk.

Symptom of an elite class

Gerontocracy, when discussed as a problem, also exposes the deeper problem of entire generations maintaining a disproportionate hold on political capital and regular capital. The Soviet Union, for instance, became a widely-recognized gerontocracy thanks to the generation born before the 1917 October Revolution keeping a stranglehold on the Politburo until Mikhail Gorbachev managed to take over in 1985. These men stayed in power despite the average life-expectancy of the Soviet Union being in the low 60s.

More relevantly, the United States' current problem with elderly lawmakers is reflected in its economy. In 2021, Americans age 70 and above had a net worth of nearly $35 trillion, more than a quarter of all wealth in the US (and you know it's bad when the goddamn Wall Street Journal is sounding the alarm on this). It's estimated that this elderly generation will hand down $61 trillion to their direct heirs, and inheritances in general increased 45% from 1998 to 2021. What these numbers demonstrate are members of an entire generation stockpiling a nation's wealth for themselves. Millennials, by contrast, had less than 5% of all US wealth in 2020, while baby boomers who were the same age in 1989 had 21%. Most millennials could also forget about the stock market, as they only held 2% of corporate equities and mutual funds, while in 1989 baby boomers had 18.2%. The youth in America are broadly worse off than their parents and grandparents were before them. Instead of fulfilling the human dream of leaving behind a better life for their children, older Americans are leaving behind a worse one.

In the United States, the problem won't be going away soon either. Baby boomers experienced far better economic circumstances far earlier in their lives than any future generations and therefore stockpiled a greater degree of wealth from a younger point in their lives. Older people, having more money, resources, and connections, find it much easier to win offices. And the electoral advantage enjoyed by incumbents ensures they stick around for a long time as well. The gerontocracy problem will also get worse for the US in the future. The number of elderly Americans will be at its highest point ever in 2023, and the baby boomer hold on the US government won't break until they literally start dying off in about 20 years.

Political paralysis

An elderly ruling class also has serious implications for the overall direction a country is heading in. The much-criticized Soviet gerontocracy created a ruling class that stockpiled wealth and resources for itself while refusing to reform old economic policies that were clearly failing in the modernizing world. For the United States, the elderly are 52% of the voting population despite being only 34% of the overall population. It's therefore their ideals and priorities to which Congress and the president will respond. The US government therefore spends far more on Medicare (which benefits the elderly) than Medicaid (which benefits the poor), and its approach towards race and immigration are tailored in response to elderly voters' overall more conservative (read: terrible) attitude towards those subjects. On the issue of climate change, the issue is seen even more clearly. Gallup polls showed 70% of respondents aged 18-34 worried about climate change versus only 54% of respondents 55 and up. With that context, it really makes perfect fucking sense that the US government likes to drag its shoes so much on climate issues.