Pink Tide

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“”The recent elections in Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Honduras provide hope for greater social justice and a more participatory democracy, but they still do not mean a shift to the left in Central America. They are, first and foremost, the result of an ostensible loss of prestige from the right-wing parties that have traditionally ruled.
—Albrecht Koschützke and Hajo Lanz, directors of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation for Central America[1]

The Pink Tide is a nickname given to the wave of progressive governments in Latin America after the consecutive elections of Hugo Chávez in 1998 in Venezuela and Lula da Silva in Brazil. The term is a reference to the nature of these political movements, as they are not outright communist (normally identified by red), but some more moderate version of the left (thus pink). However, the term has been criticized for being vague and simplistic, as it connects several quite different political movements with only one major thing in common, that being their tendency to be more left-wing than the traditional parties or regimes that precede them.[2] The ideologies of these governments range from democratic socialism, social-democracy, libertarian socialism and left populism to even far-left and authoritarian governments. It has also been argued that there was a second Pink Tide starting in 2019, in response to the far-right governments that replaced many of the governments of the former Pink Tide.[3] In fact, the second Pink Tide has surpassed the first in terms of how many Latin American governments had left-leaning leaders at the same time, even if many of them were elected in close, highly divisive elections.

The reasons behind the sudden turn to the left of many Latin American countries include such things as the infamous Operation Condor,Wikipedia a series of US-backed operations in South America that included economic warfare, political murders, coups, and sponsorship of brutal far-right regimes in order to fight communism and everything that looks like it. These activities provoked the overthrow of several democratically-elected progressive governments during the 1960s and 1970s, including among others, Salvador Allende in Chile, Jacobo Árbenz in Guatemala, Juan Domingo Perón in Argentina, and even João Goulart of Brazil, followed by far-right dictatorships that committed all sorts of human rights violations, including internment camps, torture, rape, political kidnappings, forced disappearances, child trafficking, and other obscene acts under the supervision of the CIA.[4][5][6][7] Nonetheless, the opinion of the region on the United States remained high in most countries.[8] Unsurprisingly, the people living in said countries tended to be rather upset about the state of affairs Operation Condor brought about.[citation NOT needed]

To be fair, once the crimes of these dictatorships and the US government support became common knowledge, public outcry did happen among the American public and some sectors of the Democratic Party (Democrats were the opposition for most of this time).[citation needed] They pushed for American withdrawal of South and Central America and a cessation of support for these regimes. In fact, international pressure from the US (particularly during Jimmy Carter's government), Europe, and the Latin American countries not under far-right dictatorships was part of the reason why most of these regimes fell.[citation needed] The first decades after the end of the dictatorships was followed by very heterogeneous policies, with some countries, such as Brazil and Chile, achieving a remarkable economic stability, while others, such as Argentina and Mexico, sinking deep into recessions due to currency crises.Wikipedia[9]

But, although these governments tend to be grouped together, other than mutual international diplomatic support for geostrategic reasons, each one has very little in common internally.[10] While some are clearly authoritarian with questionable ethics and blatant antidemocratic behaviors, like Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, others tend more towards socio-liberal or libertarian socialist tendencies with socially liberal policies (support of LGBTI rights including gay marriage, abortion, marijuana legalization, etc.), others are moderate and economically progressive such as Chile, Uruguay, Argentina, and Costa Rica.[citation needed] Some others are also more socially conservative, being disdainful towards LGBT issues and women's rights.[11][note 1] Others are somewhere in between like El Salvador and Ecuador.[citation needed] Even so, English-speaking media has been accused of accentuating the negatives and often overlooking important gains of these governments in aspects such as poverty reduction, indigenous peoples' rights, and economic growth.[12]

The Pink Tide in maps[edit]

Red indicates left-wing governments and blue indicates right-wing governments.

  • The Pink Tide at its original peak, 2011.

  • The Pink tide at its minimum, 2018.

  • Central and South America in January 2023, in the midst of the second Pink Tide.

Where are they now?[edit]

The countries in the region have experienced the Pink Tide differently. In some countries, the leftist parties still remain democratically in power, while in others, there has been a peaceful transition away to the conservatives (and sometimes back again to the leftists).

  • Argentina Néstor Kirchner died in 2010, after leaving office in 2007 to the winner of that year's election, his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. After ruining most of the Argentinian economy, she was replaced in 2015 by the incompetent right-wing president Mauricio Macri, who couldn't resolve the problems. Left-wing Peronism came back to power in 2019 after Cristina's protégé, Alberto Fernández, won the election. With Fernández, however, the already bleak situation deteriorated faster than ever: the GDP fell by 2.2% in 2019, with a double-digit drop in 2020. In 2023, inflation reached almost 200%,[13] despite the strenuous efforts by the government to forcefully freeze prices[14] Meanwhile, the country defaulted for the ninth time[15] and more than 40% of the Argentinian population is living in poverty.[16] Since there is nothing so bad that it couldn't be worse, Argentina was also among the worst affected countries by the COVID-19 pandemic, being the 15th with the highest number of cases per capita and the 11th with the highest number of deaths by July 2021.[17] In 2022, Cristina Kirchner was found guilty of corruption, and sentenced to six years in prison.[18] Weary of their incompetent and corrupt government, Argentina decided to elect the far-right libertarian Javier Milei by the end of 2023.
  • Bolivia The resilient president Evo Morales finally met his political downfall in November 2019. He lost a referendum on whether or not he should be allowed to run for a fourth term in October 2019, but the Bolivian Supreme Court reversed the decision and allowed him to run.[19] Disputes over that issue as well as allegations of election fraud[note 2] led to massive protests and, just a few hours after Morales announced a new election, the military called for his resignation and he accepted. He was replaced in what some have called a coup[21] by far-right Christian nationalist Jeanine Áñez Chávez, who proclaimed herself president and walked into the presidential palace brandishing an oversized Bible.[22] A new election was held in October 2020, and Arce, the candidate put up by Morales's party, won.[23] Áñez would later be charged for abuses of power committed during her interim government,[24] including the torture of opposition figures.[25]
  • Brazil Lula da Silva left office to his protégé Dilma Rousseff. The all-consuming Lava JatoWikipedia scandal resulted in Rousseff's impeachment, and Lula's conviction, and seems to be touching politicians in Brazil regardless of their ideological backgrounds (here's looking at you, Temer). Hypothetically, Lula might have won the 2018 elections; however, he was disqualified due to his controversial conviction. Instead, the far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro managed to prevail, and things got worse during his term. However, in 2022, Lula was able to defeat Bolsonaro in a narrow election, making Bolsonaro the first incumbent president to be defeated in Brazil since their 1985 return to democracy.[26]
  • Chile The political pendulum seems to swing back and forth in Chile. Socialist Michelle Bachelet ended her second term peacefully in 2018 and conservative businessman and Pinochet-wannabe Sebastián Piñera was president from 2018-2022. His authoritarian regime struggled with widespread protests against neoliberalism and economic inequality, and he would be ousted by the left-wing Gabriel Boric.Wikipedia[27]
  • Colombia Historically one of the most conservative countries in Latin America, a leftist president, Gustavo Petro, was finally elected in 2022 in response to the rising inequality in the country that was exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Costa Rica Carlos Alvarado Quesada from the center-left Citizens' Action Party won the 2018 election. He peacefully transitioned power to the conservative Rodrigo Chaves in 2022.
  • Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel is the country's first leader outside the Castro family since the Revolution in 1959. Being born on 1960, he's also relatively young (well, compared to his immediate predecessors). Cuba saw strong protests in 2021Wikipedia asking for economic and political reforms, which were met with brutality.[28] Since then, the political and economic situation in Cuba is getting worse and worse, with food and fuel shortages and more repression from an already authoritarian government,[29] leading to a massive exodus to the US.[30]
  • Dominican Republic While the PLD was ousted from power after 16 years in 2020, they were suceeded by another center-left candidate, Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party.[31]
  • Ecuador Lenín Moreno of Rafael Correa's party won a narrow victory in 2017. However, Moreno is way more conservative than his predecessor and began distancing himself from left-wing populism after he took office. He secured a referendum to impose term limits on the office of president, thereby locking Correa out of office.[32] In 2023, Correa's candidate, Luisa Gonzales, lost to Daniel Noboa.[33]
  • El Salvador The FMLN party (formerly a communist guerrilla) won two straight elections before coming in last in a three-way race to a third-party ex-FMLN candidate, Nayib Bukele.
  • Guatemala Álvaro Colom peacefully transitioned power to his right-wing successor in 2012. The center-left would only elect a president again, Bernardo Arévalo, of the Movimiento Semilla, in 2023. This transition was less-than-peaceful though.[34]
  • Honduras Liberal-turned-left-wing-populist Manuel Zelaya was removed in a bloody US-backed military coup in 2009. Right-wing leaders have since tightened their grip on the country, including "winning" the so-called "general election" in 2017.Wikipedia However, by 2022, leftists regained control with Xiomara Castro.Wikipedia
  • Mexico Leftist Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) won the 2018 election in a landslide, after having lost both the 2006 election (the result of which was… rather questionable, to say the least) and the 2012 election, securing over 50% of the vote and his party and allies securing the first majority in both chambers of the country in decades, probably in response to the "Orange Tide" that happened in the United States. To be honest, everyone expected him to win after the disastrous government of Enrique Peña Nieto, but he still managed to disrupt pollsters who did not think he would win by that much. Mexico saw a severe democratic backslide under AMLO as he pushed to silence critics and erode democratic checks and balances.[35] Perhaps his most frontal attack to the Mexican democracy were his attempts to crumble the country's judiciary system, especially by enacting electoral laws which aimed at diluting the power of electoral institutions, while casting a shadow on the legitimacy of the 2024 elections,[36] with analysts comparing his government with the period when the country was ruled by the Institutional Revolutionary Party.Wikipedia[37][38][39]
  • Nicaragua Daniel Ortega returned to power in 2007. In 2018, he responded violently to demonstrationsWikipedia and experienced demands for his resignation. Following Hugo Chávez's path, Ortega has eroded more and more the democratic institutions in Nicaragua,[40] arresting opposition leaders as well as journalists and activists.[41][42] In June 2021, the top US diplomat for Latin America, Julie Chung, tweeted that the arrests "should resolve any remaining doubts about Ortega's credentials as a dictator."[43]
  • Panama The center-left Laurentino CortizoWikipedia won the presidential election of 2019, promising to take care of the corruption that was exposed by the Panama Papers.
  • Paraguay The former Catholic bishop Fernando Lugo was impeachedWikipedia and removed from the presidency in 2012 over a controversial handling of a land dispute that turned violent and alleged sexual abuse during his time as a Catholic bishop. The next election was a peaceful transition of power to the conservative Colorado Party, which supported the Alfredo Stroessner dictatorship.
  • Peru Peru's center-left president Ollanta Humala was forced to withdraw from his reelection campaign due to Lava Jato. The next election was won by right-of-center Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, in a very close call against the daughter of former right-wing dictator Alberto Fujimori, Keiko Fujimori. He was later impeached, and even though the impeachment process was blocked in Congress, he had to resign over further corruption scandals, also from Lava Jato. He was replaced by the increasingly authoritarian center-right Martín Vizcarra, who was impeached and removed from office after Congress declared him "morally incompetent", and was replaced by Manuel Merino, the President of the Peruvian Congress, who ran a "far-right government". This sparked mass protests from Peruvians who felt the impeachment was unfounded, an overreach of congressional power, and even many analysts, experts, and media outlets across the country called it a coup. [44] Five days after taking office, Merino resigned due to two deaths in the protests, and was succeeded by Fransisco Sagasti, who took over as an "emergency" and "transitional" president. Come 2021, elections were finally held, with former teacher and longtime activist Pedro Castillo winning over Keiko Fujimori, who disputed the results of the election in a very Trumpian way, which delayed the transition period for Castillo and ground the country to a halt. Castillo, a left-winger who wanted to replace the constitution inherited from Fujimori's regime, was finally declared president on July 19th and took office on July 28, 2021. However, Castillo wasn't able to accomplish much due to the aforementioned Fujimori-era constitution, and in December 2022, he tried to dissolve the Peruvian Congress after they attempted to impeach him for the third time for spurious reasons. Ultimately, this was considered an attempted coup by many international observers,[45] with Mexico's leader Obrador being one of the few to support Castillo.[46] In a self-fulfilling prophecy, Castillo was impeached and arrested. He was replaced by Dina Boluarte, who called for a political truce, essentially returning things to the status quo.
  • Uruguay Uruguay's center-left Broad Front party managed to win three straight elections until their candidate lost to the conservative Luis Lacalle Pou in 2019. In 2024, however, Lacalle Pou failed to elect his successor, and the Broad Front is set to return to power in March 2025, with Yamandú Orsi.Wikipedia[47]
  • Venezuela Hugo Chávez died in 2013 and was succeeded by Nicolás Maduro. Venezuela has been slowly spiraling into disaster after the opposition parties re-took the congress in 2015. In 2019, there was a presidential crisis on whether the self-proclaimed "acting president" Juan Guaidó or Maduro should be recognized. Countries such as the United States recognize Guaidó while countries such as Russia and China recognize Maduro. According to the Venezuelan constitution, if the president is illegitimate, then the leader of the National Assembly (Guaidó) shall be recognized as interim president to ensure free and democratic elections. Although Maduro was re-elected in 2018, the voter turnout was very low and the main opposition parties were banned from participating.[48] The 2024 presidential election was even more unfree and unfair as Maduro managed to control all the insitutions behind the election and repressed any form of political opposition in the country.[49] In the end Maduro lost the election, but thanks to vote fraud and violence, managed to stay in power.[50] Venezuela's economy sank even faster than its democracy, as the country's GDP per capita dropped almost 90% between 2013 and 2021[51] and its inflation rate rose to 10 million per cent in 2019.[52]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ↑ Which, to be fair, it's almost inevitable in a very socially conservative region.
  2. ↑ This is alleged election fraud, as there is substantial dispute over whether or not any election fraud actually took place.[20]

References[edit]

  1. ↑ "Tres tenues luces de esperanza Las fuerzas de izquierda cobran impulso en tres países centroamericanos". Nueva Sociedad. 2014. 
  2. ↑ Abbott, Jared. Will the Pink Tide Lift All Boats? Latin American Socialisms and Their Discontents. Retrieved 5 April 2017. 
  3. ↑ Latin America’s second ‘Pink Tide’ is a result of right-wing government failures, Diana Flores, Commonwealth Times 18 March 2022
  4. ↑ "Los secretos de la guerra sucia continental de la dictadura" (The secrets of the continental dirty war of the dictators), Clarin, 24 March 2006
  5. ↑ McSherry, J. Patrice (2011). "Chapter 5: "Industrial repression" and Operation Condor in Latin America". State Violence and Genocide in Latin America: The Cold War Years (Critical Terrorism Studies). Routledge. p. 107. ISBN 0415664578. 
  6. ↑ Greg Grandin (2011). The Last Colonial Massacre: Latin America in the Cold War. University of Chicago Press. p. 75. ISBN 9780226306902.
  7. ↑ Walter L. Hixson (2009). The Myth of American Diplomacy: National Identity and U.S. Foreign Policy. Yale University Press. p. 223. ISBN 0300151314.
  8. ↑ "Perception of the U.S. among Latin Americans, by country 2018" (in en). 
  9. ↑ Kehoe, Timothy Jerome, ed (2021). A monetary and fiscal history of Latin America, 1960-2017. Minneapolis London: University of Minnesota Press. ISBN 978-1-5179-1198-0. 
  10. ↑ Isbester, Katherine (2011). The Paradox of Democracy in Latin America: Ten Country Studies of Division and Resilience. Toronto: University of Toronto Press. p. 68. ISBN 978-1442601802. 
  11. ↑ Angelo, Paul J.; June 23, Will Freeman |; 2021. "A Socially Conservative Left Is Gaining Traction in Latin America" (in en-US). 
  12. ↑ Oikonomakis, Leonidas. Europe’s pink tide? Heeding the Latin American experience. Retrieved 5 April 2017. 
  13. ↑ "Argentina 2023 inflation seen at 185% -cenbank poll By Reuters" (in en-us). 
  14. ↑ Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean -2020
  15. ↑ Argentina defaults yet again, but hopes to get off lightly
  16. ↑ Argentina’s Economy Buckles After Leader Puts Politics First
  17. ↑ https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases
  18. ↑ Booth, Amy (2022-12-06). "Argentina’s Cristina Fernández sentenced to six years in $1bn fraud case" (in en-GB). The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. 
  19. ↑ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/03/evo-morales-bolivia-president-election-limits
  20. ↑ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/26/bolivia-dismissed-its-october-elections-fraudulent-our-research-found-no-reason-suspect-fraud/
  21. ↑ https://apnews.com/article/evo-morales-did-a-coup-force-6b2c94306089451d9761878c9f7ce2f1
  22. ↑ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-11/bolivia-faces-power-vacuum-and-more-chaos-after-morales-quits
  23. ↑ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/bolivia-election-exit-polls-suggest-thumping-win-evo-morales
  24. ↑ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/10/bolivia-jeanine-anez-arce-coup/
  25. ↑ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/17/bolivia-government-tortured-executed-opponents-report
  26. ↑ Lula defeats Bolsonaro to again become Brazil’s president, Mauricio Saverese and Diane Jeantet, AP News 30 October 2022
  27. ↑ See the Wikipedia article on 2019 Chilean protests.
  28. ↑ "Cuba: Crackdown on Protests Creates Rights Crisis | Human Rights Watch" (in en). 2022-07-11. 
  29. ↑ "Why the Situation in Cuba Is Deteriorating" (in en). 
  30. ↑ Augustin, Ed; Robles, Frances (2022-12-10). "‘Cuba Is Depopulating’: Largest Exodus Yet Threatens Country’s Future" (in en-US). The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. 
  31. ↑ "The Dominican Republic changes its ruling party". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. 
  32. ↑ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/02/05/a-referendum-in-ecuador-is-another-defeat-for-south-americas-left-wing-populists/?utm_term=.d60f8386dc45
  33. ↑ "Daniel Noboa, heir to banana fortune, wins Ecuador’s presidential runoff election" (in en). 2023-10-15. 
  34. ↑ "Reformist Arevalo sworn in as Guatemala's president despite opponents' efforts to derail transition" (in en). 2024-01-15. 
  35. ↑ "Mexico's Democracy Is Crumbling Under AMLO" (in en). 
  36. ↑ School, Stanford Law (2023-10-24). "Guardians of Democracy: Battling for the Rule of Law in Mexico" (in en). 
  37. ↑ "Mexico’s hard-won democracy is in danger". 
  38. ↑ Krauze, León (2023-07-17). "Opinion | Democracy is under threat in Mexico as López Obrador plans his succession" (in en-US). Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. 
  39. ↑ Martinez, Andrés (2023-02-28). "Opinion: Why does Mexico's president want to dismantle the democratic system that elected him?" (in en-US). 
  40. ↑ Daniel Ortega tears up all pretence of democracy in Nicaragua
  41. ↑ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/nicaragua-police-arrest-opposition-leaders-ortega-treason-laws
  42. ↑ https://www.npr.org/2021/06/23/1009339843/has-nicaraguas-president-become-a-dictator-hes-jailing-political-opponents
  43. ↑ https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210622-timeline-nicaragua-s-authoritarian-slide
  44. ↑ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/peru-president-merino-resigns-vizcarra/2020/11/15/47cb0a54-275c-11eb-92b7-6ef17b3fe3b4_story.html
  45. ↑ See the Wikipedia article on 2022 Peruvian self-coup attempt.
  46. ↑ Peru's impeached president Castillo appears in court on rebellion charges, France 24 8 December 2022
  47. ↑ "Who is Yamandu Orsi, Uruguay’s next president?". Al Jazeera. November 25, 2024. 
  48. ↑ https://qz.com/1283108/venezuela-election-amid-boycotts-and-irregularities-voter-turnout-was-the-lowest-in-60-years
  49. ↑ "Maduro regime doubles down on censorship and repression in lead-up to Venezuelan election - ICIJ" (in en-US). 2024-07-24. 
  50. ↑ "AP review of Venezuela opposition-provided vote tallies casts doubt on government’s election results" (in en). 2024-08-02. 
  51. ↑ "Has Venezuela’s economy bottomed out?". 
  52. ↑ Sanchez, Valentina (2019-08-03). "Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent. 'Shock therapy' may be only chance to undo the economic damage" (in en). 
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