RationalWiki:What is going on with the elections?

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Icon politics.svg Keep up to date with all the polls, propaganda, lies, and statistics surrounding the world's elections here. The most popular entries are found at Best of the elections and the older entries are found in the archives.

What is going on?

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July 2024

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5United States Trump: "If they do 'assassinate President Trump,' which is always a possibility, I hope that America obliterates Iran, wipes it off the face of the Earth — If that does not happen, American Leaders will be considered 'gutless' cowards!"
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6United States RFK Jr. proposes sending "drug addicts" to "wellness farms" funded by marijuana taxes, where they would grow organic food and not be allowed to use cell phones. Other than people addicted to illegal drugs, people taking antidepressants or ADHD medications could be sent to the farms "if they want to", he adds.
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16United States "Harris poised to make abortion rights a centerpiece of campaign".
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17United States Trump's running mate, J. D. Vance, writes the foreword for a new book about a "Second American Revolution", by Project 2025 leader Kevin Roberts. In case you needed further proof there's absolutely no connection between Project 2025 and the Trump campaign.
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14United States March For Our Lives, a youth-led gun control group, makes its first political endorsement, for Kamala Harris.
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2IsraelUnited States Israeli government minister Itamar Ben-Gvir endorses Trump: "I believe that with Trump Israel will receive the backing to act against Iran".
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12United States Biden to give an Oval Office address on July 24 about his decision to drop out of the presidential race.
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12United States Wall Street Journal says Kamala Harris would change course on Israel/Palestine policy. "Key Biden appointees, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin wouldn't likely be extended in their current roles, current and former officials say." (OTOH...)
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12United States Trump calls Biden a "threat to democracy". This was after Biden stepped down from his candidacy.
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14United States Harris has support from enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination.
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18United States After a brief consideration, Joe Manchin has decided again that he won’t make a presidential bid during the DNC, won’t accept VP either. This eliminates another potential convention challenger against Harris.
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14United States Several key members of the Democratic Party have put their support for Harris as the presidential nominee. This includes; Nancy Pelosi, Bill & Hillary Clinton, Gretchen Whitmer, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Gavin Newsom & JB Pritzker
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33United States Joe Biden has officially announced he's dropping out of the presidential race. He endorses Kamala Harris.
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17United States Trump calls up RFK Jr. to agree with his anti-vax rhetoric in leaked video.
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8United Kingdom Growing rumours that former home secretary Suella Braverman may defect to Reform UK, if she doesn't get the numbers to be in the running for Tory leader.
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17United States J. D. Vance accidentally leaves his Venmo friends list public, revealing his links to far-right activists. One example was "Amelia Halikias, the government relations director at the Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank behind Project 2025." (The Heritage Foundation's Kevin Roberts recently stated that the group pushed for Trump to select Vance as his running mate.) Andrew Torba of Gab also claims to "have plenty of people in his orbit."
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17United States More rumors Biden could drop out and be replaced. Comes as congressional Democrat leaders push him to do so, and he was diagnosed with COVID-19.
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20United States Unearthed audio from 2022: J. D. Vance called for a national abortion ban.
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12United States AFL-CIO response to Trump's running mate announcement. Similarly, the SEIU wasn't so hot on Vance as the Teamsters leader who spoke at the RNC. Update: Now dissent within the Teamsters union as well...
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8United States Trump VP pick J. D. Vance states his support for devaluing the US dollar to "make it easier to export" products.
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4United States J. D. Vance is announced as Trump's VP running mate in the 2024 election.
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10United States Elon Musk now a Trump donor. Update: Musk will reportedly donate ~$45 million every month to a super PAC supporting Trump.
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20United States Here is the list of prominent Democrats who have so far called for Biden to step down.
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13United States Biden regains in some battleground state polls.
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20United StatesArkansas. Arkansas may have enough signatures for a ballot initiative asking voters about abortion rights. Abortion related ballot initiatives will be posed in several other states including Nevada, Colorado, Florida, etc. (If you live in a state with ballot questions, it's worth finding out yourself which ones will be asked — far too many for this page to keep track of.)
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18United StatesFlorida. Polls suggest a ballot initiative to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida may meet the 60% approval threshold.
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3United Kingdom Northern Irish Loyalist Jim Allister has said he would take the Reform whip as well as his TUV whip, boosting the Reform party's number to 6 MPs. This would mean Farage getting extra help from the Commons in terms of Short Money.Wikipedia
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24France Final round of voting in France appears to result in a hung parliament. The far-left coalition seem to have the most seats, then the centrists, then the far-right taking third place despite polls indicating they would win.
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4United Kingdom Nigel Farage is an MP now, although his Reform UK Party fell short of the 13 seats projected in the exit poll, winning only 5.
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29United Kingdom Labour have won the 2024 U.K. general election and received 412 seats. Keir Starmer is your next Prime Minister.
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33United Kingdom George Galloway has lost his seat to Labour. He held this seat for three months.
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34United Kingdom Jacob Rees-Mogg has lost his seat to Labour.
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38United Kingdom Former Prime Minister Liz Truss loses her seat to Labour
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20United Kingdom Jeremy Corbyn wins reelection as an independent
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23United Kingdom Polls close in the 2024 UK general election. Exit polls predict a landslide for Keir Starmer's Labour Party. Labour is projected to win 410 seats, whilst Rishi Sunak's Conservatives are on 131. It will be several hours until the real result is confirmed. UPDATE: Labour wins majority
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2United Kingdom Proving once and for all that he's not Tony Blair's clone, Keir Starmer won an endorsement for Labour from The Sun. (Incidentally, The Economist as well.)
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8United States Following the first debate, there was initial talk of replacing Biden on the ticket. It could have been shrugged off but now seems to have congealed into ideas of replacing him with Kamala Harris (which bizarrely spawned a meme about coconut trees). Whether that bears out or remains a flash in the pan, who knows. Biden himself says it won't happen. He held a meeting with Democratic state governors.
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5United States A week after the US presidential debate, it's safe to say Trump has generally gotten a boost in the polls.

June 2024

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7France National Rally (RN) won the first round of voting in France by a projected few points (~33%). The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) coalition won second place (~28%), the centrists third place (~21%), conservatives fourth (~10%). Many runoff elections on 7 July are expected, and likely to produce a hung parliament.
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21United StatesNevada. A ballot question to enshrine abortion rights in the Nevada state constitution has met all of the requirements to go forward in November's election.
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17United States Biden debated poorly, then bizarrely enough woke up after leaving the debate. (Drugs must have kicked in late.) Oh and Trump called him a Palestinian, why not.
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15United States Trump shows everyone his climate change talking-points ahead of the first presidential debate, because he's well known for being able to keep information classified. The notes are apparently written by a coal industry lobbyist, Andrew R. Wheeler.Wikipedia
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10United Kingdom Last hope for Tories is to get in a spat with Doctor Who actor David Tennant about LGBT rights, and spam the word "tax" on Twitter. Only the best campaign strategy racist money can buy.
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14United Kingdom Satirical character Count Binface challenges PM Sunak in parliament. A recent survey showed Sunak holding just a four-percentage-point lead over Binface in favorability; Binface, in turn, polled more favorably than former prime minister Liz Truss.
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6United StatesNew York. Rep. Jamaal Bowman has been unseated by conservative Democrat George Latimer in NY-16.
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18United States Trump campaign is confident enough that they will now be investing resources into Virginia and Minnesota. In some months we get to find out whether that's Clinton-style hubris or not.
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17United States Moody's Analytics compares Trump and Biden's economic plans, rates Biden's as better, and says Trump's would "trigger a recession by mid-2025".
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18United States Trump has announced that on day 1 of his potential presidency he would ban funding for trans-supportive schools.
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16United Kingdom "UK polls point to 'electoral extinction' for Prime Minister Sunak's Conservatives". However, these three polls don't currently find Reform UK "overtaking" the Conservative Party, or reaching a dead heat with them, as some other data may have suggested.
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7South Africa ANC and DA secure coalition government; Cyril Ramaphosa to remain president.
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2United Kingdom A second poll has pointed that the Conservatives could come in third, and the centrist Lib Dems could overtake as the official opposition.
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18France Due to the poor performance of Macron's Renaissance party in the European parliamentary elections, he has dissolved the Assemblée Nationale and launched fresh parliamentary elections.
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6United Kingdom Anthony Mack, who was originally the planned Reform UK candidate for Clacton, is now standing as an independent, after he was forced out by Farage.
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5India Prime Minister Narendra Modi has secured enough support to form a government and lead the country for a third term despite his party losing over 60 seats and its majority.
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18India Early results in India's election indicate that the landslide predicted by polls for the Bharatiya Janata Party has not materialized. Instead, the party appears to have lost more than 60 seats, pushing them below the majority. Although it is likely that Narendra Modi will remain in power with the help of coalition partners, the result is seen by many as a serious blow for Modi and the BJP, especially given the authoritarian tactics Modi used in the election campaign (such as jailing political opponents and freezing opposition party bank accounts).
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9United Kingdom Nigel Farage is running for Reform UK in the U.K. general election.
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15Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling left-wing party has been elected as Mexico's first female president.
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26United States Polls after his felony convictions show possible problems for Trump as some registered Republicans say they're less likely to vote for him, and half of registered independents want him to drop out of the presidential race entirely.
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19South Africa ANC loses majority in General Election; ending an era of sole rule since 1994.

May 2024

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12United States The Libertarian Party has selected Chase Oliver as their presidential nominee. Chase is notable for being gay and against the government banning elements of queer lifestyles, as well as forwardly saying that Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip constitute a genocide and calling for a ceasefire. The guy's a libertarian, so his economic policies probably aren't great, but he is an actual libertarian,Wikipedia and not a Mises CaucusWikipedia "libertarian".
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12Lithuania Incumbent Lithuanian President Nausėda wins re-election in a massive landslide, getting over 74% of the votes cast.
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32United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls a general election for Thursday 4th July
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33United States Trump praises fictional serial killer Hannibal Lecter during rally speech while going on a nativist rant about undocumented immigrants
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22United Kingdom Sadiq Khan has won his third term as mayor of London, beating Trump wannabe Susan Hall.Wikipedia
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28United KingdomTrans flag.svg KJK frequently says “I never lose.”, but her Party of Women has flopped in the local elections. Three of the five candidates came last, one came fourth and one third with just 161 votes. On the other hand, the anti-TERF feminist Women's Equality Party has gained its first councillor in the borough of Basingstoke and Deane.
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23United Kingdom Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party suffers heavy losses at the local council elections, with all other parties (and independents) maiking significant gains. Well, except the astroturfed and over-covered Reform UK which only collected a minibus worth of councillors.

April 2024

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22United StatesPennsylvania. Nikki Haley wins 17 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania's Republican presidential primary despite dropping out over a month prior.
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22United States US voters rate Biden better on economy than previous months in a couple recent polls. Trump still has about a six or seven percent advantage on the issue.
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16United Kingdom Polling has revealed that the turning point when voters change from being a Labour to a Conservative voter has gone up from 39 to 70. Meaning that the only big supporters for the Tories are pensioners.
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14United States Meet the people spending $800,000 or more to make Trump the next president
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26South Korea South Korea's liberal opposition party has trounced the conservative ruling party in a recent parliamentary election.
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40Turkey Turkey's main opposition party is closing in on victory in the main cities of Istanbul and Ankara

March 2024

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18Senegal Bassirou Diomaye Faye has been elected as President of Senegal. He's also Africa's youngest president ever.
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3United Kingdom Jonathan GullisWikipedia has been appointed as deputy chairman of the Conservatives.
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7Ireland Higher Education minister Simon Harris has been been elected unopposed in the Fine Gael's ardfheis [party conference] as the party's new leader. He would be the next taoiseach [prime minister] on the 9th April.
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17 United StatesNew Jersey. Bob Menendez announces he will not seek reelection.
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8Russia In a shocking turn of events, Vladimir Putin wins another presidential election which, according to independent reporting, had nearly 32 million fake votes, and along with Ukrainian citizens in Russian-occupied territories being forced to vote at gunpoint.
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17Ireland Ireland overwhelmingly rejects proposed constitutional amendments via two referendums. The proposed changes would have removed language in the constitution that defines a family in terms of "marriage" and references women's "duties in the home". Voter turnout was lower than expected, and reportedly the "Yes" campaign had "confusing" messaging, both of which may have helped contribute to the result.
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16Portugal Center-right Democratic Alliance claims a narrow victory over the governing Socialists. The far-right party Chega ("Enough!" in Portuguese) saw large gains, nearly tripling its vote share and winning 48 seats in Parliament, but according to the Democratic Alliance leader Luís Montenegro they will not rely on Chega to govern.
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11United Kingdom Former deputy chairman of the Conservatives Lee Anderson has defected to populist far-right Reform UK.
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18United States Trump, looking for a way out of his financial troubles to help with his campaign, has gone to Elon Musk, who'd certainly be able to erase his financial worries. Elon has said he doesn't plan on donating to any candidate.
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8United StatesNorth Carolina. Mark RobinsonWikipedia has won the North Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary. The guy is very far-right, a Holocaust denier, and may actually be a Moon landing denier.
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17United States Biden's State of the Union address fueled his best fundraising day out of any since he announced his 2024 campaign.
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16United States RFK Jr. defends his association with Jeffrey Epstein by listing other alleged or convicted criminals he associated with. "I mean, I knew Harvey Weinstein. I knew Roger Ailes. I knew—OJ Simpson came to my house. Bill Cosby came to my house."
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11United Kingdom Another one bites the dust, with former Prime Minister Theresa May said she is to stand down as the MP for Maidenhead at the next general election.
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16United States Dean Phillips drops out, endorses Biden.
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11United States (Or not.) Nikki Haley expected to drop out of presidential race on March 6. Update: It’s official.
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12United StatesVermont. We're so back, Haleybros: Nikki narrowly wins the Vermont Republican primary.
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16United StatesAmerican Samoa In an upset, Joe Biden loses the American Samoa Democratic Primary to someone you've likely never heard of, Jason PalmerWikipedia (who didn't even have a Wikipedia page before this happened). This also makes Biden the first incumbent president to lose a primary contest since Jimmy Carter in 1980.
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26United StatesArizona. Kyrsten Sinema is not running for reelection.
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13United Kingdom Polling by Ipsos for the Evening Standard has put the Conservatives approval rating at just 20%, the lowest rating they have had in an Ipsos poll since 1978. Sunak has also seen his rating as Prime Minister reach a record low of 73 percent dissatisfied, 19 percent satisfied, giving a net score of -54.
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25United States The Supreme Court voted 9-0 to keep Donald Trump on the ballots. Are you even surprised?
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3Pakistan Shehbaz Sharif has been appointed the new Prime Minister of Pakistan.

February 2024

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5United Kingdom ‘Gorgeous’ George Galloway returns to Parliament after winning a chaotic by-election.
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2United States Ryan Binkley has dropped out of the race.
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7United States Marianne Williamson unsuspends her presidential campaign three weeks after she dropped out.
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20United StatesKentucky. Mitch McConnell is officially stepping down as Republican Senate leader in November.
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7Tuvalu Feleti Teo has been appointed the prime minister of Tuvalu.
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14United StatesSouth Carolina. Koch brothers network pulls the plug on contributions to Haley's campaign after loss in South Carolina.
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-15United StatesSouth Carolina. Donald Trump wins the South Carolina primary.
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23United StatesWisconsin. Wisconsin governor Tony Evers signs new legislative maps, replacing the old gerrymandered ones drawn by Republicans.
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24United StatesWest Virginia. After months of speculation, Senator Joe Manchin says he will not run for president in 2024 as a third-party or independent candidate.
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21Pakistan Protests have erupted in Pakistan over election rigging and military interference.
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18United Kingdom The Conservatives lose 2 more ‘safe’ parliamentary seats to the Labour Party in by-elections.
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8United StatesMaryland. The far-right Bethany Mandel is running for the Board of Education in deep blue Montgomery County, Maryland.
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26United StatesNew York. Democrats pick up one seat in the House of Representatives, where Republicans are a majority only by a razor-thin margin. This was a special election triggered by the expulsion of George Santos from the chamber.
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-7Georgia Following Irakli Garibashvili's resignation, Irakli Kobakhidze has been approved as the new prime minister.
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5Finland Centre-right former prime minister Alexander Stubb has won narrowly against Green candidate Pekka Haavisto, to be the next president of Finland.
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15United StatesCalifornia. Marianne Williamson has suspended her 2024 presidential campaign.
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10United StatesNevada. Biden projected to win Nevada's Democratic presidential primary with something like 90% of the vote.
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15United StatesNevada. Nikki Haley is projected to lose to the option "None of these candidates" in the symbolic Nevada primary, the first ever candidate from either party to do so. Trump did not appear on the ballot, instead focusing on the Nevada caucus, which actually awards delegates.
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10United StatesSouth Carolina. Biden won the South Carolina primary with 96 percent of the vote.
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6El Salvador El Salvador's Bukele re-elected as president in landslide win. His New Ideas party is expected to win almost all of the 60 seats in the legislative body, which means Bukele will wield unprecedented power and be able to overhaul El Salvador's constitution, something that his opponents fear will result in scrapping of term limits.
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3United KingdomIreland A nationalist SDLP MLA has lost his whip (party affiliation) after he left early during a historic meeting of the Northern Irish Assembly, so he could participate in a GAA football match as a team manager.
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25United StatesFlorida. Florida will vote, via a ballot initiative this year on whether to add abortion rights to its state constitution. Similar measures have succeeded in deeply red-leaning states like Kansas and Ohio, so one may expect this to succeed.

January 2024

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-10United StatesArizona. Proposed bill would give the Arizona legislature the authority to override the popular vote.
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13United Kingdom A former cabinet minister leads a plot among UK's Tories to oust Rishi Sunak as party leader before the next election.
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14United States Trump: anybody who donates to Nikki Haley "will be permanently banned from the MAGA camp."
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6United StatesNew Hampshire. Donald Trump wins the New Hampshire Republican primary. Joe Biden also won the Democratic primary despite only being a write-in candidate.
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4Comoros Azali Assoumani is elected as President of the Comoros for the 4th time.
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11United StatesPennsylvania. One Pennsylvania state poll has Biden doing decently, per a pollster FiveThirtyEight rates "B+". Polls for the general presidential election have been somewhat mixed recently.
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34United StatesFlorida. Ron DeSantis drops out of the Republican primary.
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26Japan Support for Japan's ruling LDP has plummeted to 14.6%, some of the worst numbers in the party's entire history.
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18Guatemala Bernardo Arévalo is inaugurated as president of Guatemala after many delays.
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9United StatesGeorgia (U.S. State). RFK Jr. traveled to Atlanta (MLK Jr's birthplace) for a campaign event the day before Martin Luther King Jr Day. There, he defended the JFK administration wiretapping MLK Jr with authorization from RFK: "My father gave permission to Hoover to wiretap them so he could prove that his suspicions about King were either right or wrong... they had to do it."
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25United States Vivek Ramaswamy drops out of the presidential race.
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-3United StatesIowa. Donald Trump wins Iowa caucuses.
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33Taiwan William Lai wins the presidential election in Taiwan, which is likely to anger China.
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23United StatesRhode Island. Rhode Island election officials found the names of several dead people on nomination papers for Vivek Ramaswamy.
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16United States John Anthony Castro, the man who filed 33 suits challenging the 2020 US presidential election results, is now the second GOP presidential hopeful to be indicted. Say what you want about the Dems currently on the ballot, but it seems that none of the Dems currently running for POTUS have been criminally indicted. Or, in other words: business as usual in the party of corruption.
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2United Kingdom Osborne has hinted the date of general election being 14th November 2024, after he said a little birdie in Sunak's government told him.
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9United States Chris Christie drops out of the 2024 presidential race.
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14United Kingdom Former pensions secretary Chris Skidmore has resigned as a MP due to Sunak's backtracking on his green pledges, while another Conservative MP is being investigated over allegedly breaking parliamentary rules by using taxpayer money to fund Conservative Party work.
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8United Kingdom Andrew Bridgen has left Laurence Fox's Reclaim Party and withdrawn the party whip, allegedly because of "difference in the direction of the party".
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16United StatesIllinois. Trump refuses to sign decades-old Illinois ballot agreement in which he would pledge not to "advocate the overthrow of the government".
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7United StatesColorado. The Supreme Court will decide if Trump can appear on the Colorado ballot.
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14United States Vivek Ramaswamy has sold stock worth 33 million in preparation for "significant investment" in his bid for the GOP nomination.
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10United Kingdom Sunak has ruled out a May 2024 general election, but hinted at an election in the latter half of 2024. Election experts point to an October 2024 election.
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11United StatesCalifornia. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign has hired noted anti-vaxxer Del Bigtree as communications director.