Hyperbole

The Gartner Hype Cycle: best ever

Cogito ergo sum Logic and rhetoric

Key articles

Logical fallacy Syllogism Argument

General logic

Argumentum ad nauseam Modus tollens Absence of evidence Bit Escape to the future Cui bono

Bad logic

Danth's Law Moving the goalposts Argument from silence Appeal to flattery Bullshit Negative evidence v - t - e

“”You are going to approve one of the biggest tax cuts in history. You are going to approve one of the biggest tax increases in history. You are going to drive business out. Your regulations are a disaster, and you're going to increase regulations all over the place. And by the way, my tax cut is the biggest since Ronald Reagan.

—Donald Trump, 2016 presidential debate

Hyperbole (or hype) is the use of exaggeration to make a point. It is completely and utterly unlike any other rhetorical technique, the single most powerful way to communicate any concept ever conceived.

Hyperbole is inevitably found in advertising and press releases by companies as well as universities. The field of artificial intelligence itself has a culture of hype.

Fallacy

Hyperbolic fallacy (also known as "'inductive hyperbole") occurs when something is stated much more strongly than the observations behind it support.

Hyperbolic fallacy is common in science reporting. Science reporters try to make science interesting to the general public, and all too often do this by exaggerating the importance of certain findings, "hyping" them as "breakthroughs" that "entirely upset" our previous assumptions, etc.

In fact, it is in the nature of inductive sampling that no conclusion is guaranteed to be true. There is always a degree of uncertainty, and always a possibility that the entire study might prove wanting.

This constant emphasis on breakthroughs in science may prime some listeners to accepting more wild claims of pseudoscience — because if science can do it, why can't the nice man with a website find a cancer cure?

The "truthful hyperbole", which is an oxymoron, according to Trump (or his pseudo-autobiographer) never hurts (in real estate). People who know Trump seem to think he doesn't understand the difference between the truth and a lie.

Gartner Hype Cycle

Even the Gartner Hype Cycle (not an actual cycle), which while looking plausible and purportedly described the phases of hyperbole qualitatively for new technology, was a load of hype that was put forward by Gartner business consultants in 2003. The Economist analyzed new technologies to see whether they fit the model described by Gartner. They found that new technologies rarely fit the model, concluding:

“”We find, in short, that the cycle is a rarity. Tracing breakthrough technologies over time, only a small share—perhaps a fifth—move from innovation to excitement to despondency to widespread adoption. Lots of tech becomes widely used without such a rollercoaster ride. Others go from boom to bust, but do not come back. We estimate that of all the forms of tech which fall into the trough of disillusionment, six in ten do not rise again. Our conclusions are similar to those of Mr [Michael] Mullany: “An alarming number of technology trends are flashes in the pan.”

Criti-hype

Lee Vinsel, a professor of Science, Technology and Society, coined the term criti-hype to refer to a form of self-criticism that is simultaneously hyperbolically promotional, giving warnings about distant and implausible dangers that make a technology seem more powerful than it is to act as a distraction from more immediate and likely dangers. He gives as examples:

• The Human Genome Project and CRISPR's corporate successors warnings designer babies and ageless bodies. The genomics company 23andMe has long faced informed consent and privacy concerns over personal DNA data, particularly in 2024 when the company has faced the possibility of bankruptcy.
• Claims were made by researchers that nanotechnology will transform nearly all fields… so more funding needs to be given to the researchers to plan for the coming transformations… which have yet to eventuate.
• Artificial intelligence has been described as a rebranding exercise by industry. More recently, "artificial general intelligence" (or "strong AI"), and Roko's Basilisk have been promoted as futuristic/implausible dangers of AI to distract people from the many immediate harms of ChatGPT.

Examples

• Obama supports universal background checks on gun purchases. CommuNazi dictator!
• "Many hospitals have had to raise their rates recently. Medical costs are sky-rocketing out of control!"
• "These findings that modest alcohol consumption can be beneficial for the heart completely upset all our previous assumptions about the health effects of drinking."

See also

• Bullshit
• Fake precision
• And the super-duper winner is… Donald Trump

External links

• See the Wikipedia article on Hyperbole.
• Inductive Hyperbole, Bruce Thompson