RationalWiki:Predictions

For those of you in the mood, RationalWiki has a fun article about Predictions.

The RationalWiki Predictions page is a simple tool to allow users to make long-term predictions, in the spirit of Longbets.org. Predictions should generally relate to the mission, or be generally relevant to politics, science, society, or economics. Once a prediction is settled, it will be archived as correct or incorrect.

Vote up (green) if you agree with the prediction, down (red) if you disagree, or meh (amber) if you're unsure/don't care.

When adding predictions, try to present statements in a way that makes them easy to judge as true or false when the excrement hits the rotating blades.

Current bets

Vote	Proposed Bet	Proposed by	Date	Expected End
3	The NDP will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election, making Jagmeet Singh the first NDP prime minister in Canadian history.	LongStylus	21 November 2024	31 December 2025
-9	Canadian and Mexican medical tourism will skyrocket when certain vaccines are banned under RFK.	Patty Pat	6 November 2024	Whenever Kennedy retires or is fired.
-9	RFK's health administration policies will lead to a significant rise in measles and other diseases, and will likely dissuade reporting.	Patty Pat	6 November 2024	Whenever Kennedy retires or is fired.
-12	The United States as we know it will cease to exist.	Rockford the Roe	2 November 2024	4 July 2076
-22	Like climate change denial, flat-earthism will end up being mainstream	Tavantius	1 November 2024	1 November 2034
-15	If RFK Jr. is appointed in a Trump administration, COVID-19 vaccines will be banned.	Patty Pat	26 October 2024	20 January 2029, or if Trump loses
-32	Wearing face masks in public will be banned nationwide under a possible second Trump administration	Patty Pat	29 September 2024	20 January 2029 or Trump loses
44	Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party will lose over 50 seats in the next Canadian federal election.	DuceMoosolini	5 September 2024	On or before 20 October 2025
37	MyPillow will file for bankruptcy by the end of the decade.	Patty Pat	July 23rd, 2024	December 31st, 2029.
-51	China will win the second space race.	A Somebody.	29 June 2024	December 31 2030 or earlier
50	The MAGA movement will collapse due to infighting caused by a power vacuum and the lack of a successor after Trump retires.	Patty Pat	28 June 2024	Between 2025 and 2029. Depending on if he wins and when he leaves the public spotlight.
26	Netanyahu's government will fall before 2025.	Arcadium_Trancefer	26 June 2024	1 January 2025
13	J. D. Vance will run for US President in the 2028 election cycle.	Chillpilled	15 April 2024	7 November 2028
-28	If Trump gets re-elected in 2024, there will be an attempt at a coup getting rid of Trump.	The Krusty Krab	6 November 2023	31 May 2025
17	Israel fully occupies the northern portion of the Gaza strip with ground troops, doesn't voluntarily pull out within two years.	Chillpilled	31 October 2023	31 October 2025
18	The GOP will attempt to federally ban minors from attending any LGBTQ+ related events within the next 10 years	Rockford the Roe	7 December 2022	7 December 2032
16		DuceMoosolini	9 September 2022	31 December 2024
-16	Boris Johnson will be the first UK Prime Minister since Harold Wilson to serve non-consecutive terms.	RWRW	6 September 2022
23	A Republican controlled House will attempt to impeach Joe Biden	Patty Pat	August 15, 2022	Whenever Biden is no longer relevant.
-32	Joe Biden will die or resign (voluntary or not) before the end of his first presidential term.	Sievert 81	March 6, 2021	January 20, 2025
7	Following the large-scale of protests of 2017-18, 2019-20, strikes of 2018-19 et al and a sanction-hit economy, there will be a successful revolution in Iran within the next five years - but the outcome may not neccesarily be favorable to Western interests.		March 6 2021	March 6 2026
-31	The piss tape will prove to be real	ikanreed	September 25 2019	Oh let's say 2030
32	Russia will attempt to integrate or annex Belarus within the next decade.	DuceMoosolini	January 17 2019	December 31 2030
-19	Scotland will be an independent nation by the end of 2025.	RoninMacbeth	March 30 2017	December 31 2025
-13	The USA will break up Yugoslavia-style within the next 150-200 years.	N7.Geth	6 February 2017	6 February 2217
-66	Ivanka Trump will rule over a significant portion of the North American continent sometime in the future.	141.134.75.236	12 December 2016	when the last Ivanka clone hits the dirt
34	Regardless of whether he wins, the popular support of Sanders policies will result in a notable shift in American politics to more openly left policies by 2030.	Paravant	9 October 2015	31 December 2030
39	There will be another Scottish independence vote within 15 years, which will either succeed or be closer than the September 2014 vote was.	Miekal	23 November 2014	31 December 2030
-22	A small ("small" meaning significantly smaller than France or Germany, but not micronation-small) nation in Western Europe will undergo a major political revolution in the next decade.	141.134.75.236	30 October 2014	1 January 2025
72	Kim Jong-un will remain in power until his death. Could be a really long bet.	Seonookim	12 March 2013

Results

Vote	Proposed Bet	Proposed by	Date of Bet	End of Bet	Result
18	The Democratic Party will retake their majority in the US House of Representatives in the 2024 election cycle.	DuceMoosolini	6 November 2023	5 November 2024	Close, but wrong.
3	Kamala Harris will win a higher percentage of the popular vote in Kansas in 2024 than Joe Biden did in 2020.	DuceMoosolini	1 November 2024	6 November 2024	Wrong.
5	Arizona will flip Republican again	Patty Pat	26 October 2024	5 November 2024 (actually closed on 10 November 2024)	Right.
-29	Kamala Harris will win a Nobel Peace Prize during her first term as president if she wins. The prize would be given for bringing peace to the Israel-Gaza war.	MayGodSaveUsAll	22 September 2024	20 January 2029 or Harris loses	Harris lost.
28	Georgia will flip Republican again.	Arcadium_Trancefer	6 September 2024	5 November 2024	Right.
6	Kamala Harris will win at least one state that Joe Biden failed to win in 2020.	Plutocow	5 September 2024	5 November 2024	Wrong.
1	Donald Trump will defeat Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election (I would love to be wrong about this).	DuceMoosolini	11 October 2024	5 November 2024	Right
18	Donald Trump will open the Gates of Hell and unleash the hordes of Gog and Magog on the radical left Democrats.	Carthage	9 November 2023	5 November 2024	Gates opened.
17	If the Democrats get re-elected in 2024, there will be an attempt at another coup to reinstate Trump.	Lavalizard101	6 November 2023		Moot.
15	The Democratic Party will lose their majority in the US Senate in the 2024 elections.	DuceMoosolini	18 November 2022	5 November 2024	Right
12	Texas will vote to the left of Florida in the 2024 US presidential election.	Plutocow	April 23,2022	November 5, 2024	Wrong.
-26	Joe Manchin will run for US President in the 2024 election cycle.	Chillpilled	9 November 2023	5 November 2024 (actually closed 5 September 2024)	Wrong.
-4	Donald Trump will defeat Joe Biden in the 2024 US presidential election.	DuceMoosolini	28 June 2024	5 November 2024 (actually closed 21 July 2024)	Moot, Biden dropped out.
16	Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.	DuceMoosolini	18 December 2022	Whenever the 2024 RNC happens (actually closed 16 July 2024).	Right.
10	The Democrats will run someone against Kyrsten Sinema in 2024.	Plutocow	18 December 2022	2024 Arizona Democratic Primary (actually closed 5 March 2024)	Moot, Sinema isn't running for reelection.
1	Mike Johnson will be replaced in his role as Speaker of the House by the end of January (probably by the end of November, honestly, but let's be generous).	Chillpilled	13 November 2023	31 January 2024	Wrong.
3	Recreational cannabis will be legal in at least 25 U.S. states by the end of this year. (As of this writing, it is legal in 22)	Plutocow	24 April 2023	31 December 2023	Close, but no cigar. (It was 24.)
18	Most of Western Europe (and possibly the US too) will face a recession in 2023.	GeeJayK	July 14, 2022	2023	Mostly wrong. the Eurozone saw a recession in first quarter of 2023 and final three months of 2022, but the American economy performed much better than expected..
-19	Spain's refusal to deal with Catalonian independence like the UK (Letting them hold a binding referendum, debating it) did with Scotland or Canada with Quebec will result in Catalonian independence by 2022.	Paravant	8 December 2015	31 December 2022	Wrong.
10	If the GOP wins the House, they will try to investigate Hunter Biden.	Patty Pat	August 15, 2022	Whenever Biden leaves office or some time afterwards. Or if the GOP loses the midterms.	Right
8	Rev. Raphael Warnock will defeat Herschel Walker in the runoff for the Georgia senate.	Plutocow	11 November 2022	6 December 2022	Right
-20	Qatar will not host the 2022 FIFA World Cup in any form, winter or summer.	Man of Perspective	4 October 2013	2022	Wrong.
19	The Democratic Party will lose their majority in the US House of Representatives in the 2022 midterms.	DuceMoosolini	6 March, 2021	8 November, 2022	Right (but a narrower loss than anyone expected).
10	Donald Trump will run for a second term in 2024.	Patty Pat	April 19, 2022	Until the Republican Primaries in 2024.	Of course he would. Let's hope it doesn't go like last time.
24	The Democratic Party will lose their majority in the US Senate in the 2022 midterms.	DuceMoosolini	6 March, 2021	8 November, 2022	Wrong. Democrats actually increased their majority by flipping Pennsylvania.
15	The next British monarch will be Prince William, either through his father dying before Elizabeth II or through him not ascending to the throne for some other reason.	Miekal	20 November 2014	8 September 2022	Wrong. Old man Charlie hung on to take the crown.
1	The NFL will not have a team in Los Angeles by or before the season starting September 2020	Avengerofthe BoN	21 August 2015	September 2020	Wrong
-15	Facebook will file for bankruptcy within the next three years.	Onde	April 24 2018	April 24 2021	Wrong
11	The relations between Russia and the Western countries will gradually improve (or at least stabilize) during the next 3-5 years due to slow deescalation of the Ukrainian crisis and the necessity to fight global threats (like ISIS).	Timothy R.	4 October 2015	31 December 2020	Right ... but only because the end date cut off before early 2022.
30	The Islamic Republic of Iran will not recognize the state of Israel at any point within the next five years, or before a rapid non-scheduled change of government (coup/revolution/civil war/the likes), whichever comes first.	Avengerofthe BoN	4 October 2015	31 December 2020	Right
15	Canada will not have any type of proportional representation before 2020—either not at all, or at least not by 2020.	Civic Cat	26 November 2015	2020	Right
-29	Donald Trump and his aides will conspire to gain almost unlimited powers and will make the US a de facto (if not de jure) dictatorship before his term expires.	Gewgtweg	1 April 2017	20 January 2021	Attempted to overturn 2020 election results, incited the 2021 U.S. coup attempt.
37	If Trump wins the presidency in 2016, his success in dealing with Congress and the states will be about as effective as Rob Ford's success with Toronto City Council. It would be a one-term presidency with at least 35% of the popular vote in 2020.	Civic Cat	26 November 2015	20 January 2021	Not a great relationship with Congress (e.g. getting impeached twice), and he did become a one-term president. He won 46.9% of the popular vote in 2020 though.
-7	Donald Trump will either die or be impeached before the end of his first term as President of the United States.	139.222.251.164	12 December 2016	8 November 2020	Trump was impeached twice, although not removed from office.
-18	Donald Trump will be reelected as President of the United States.	Owlman	21 November 2016	8 November 2020	Wrong
-40	If Donald Trump is elected president, he will be the last president of the United States	AgingHippie	11 February 2016	20 January 2021	Wrong. However, given that he won the 2024 election, it is unknown what will happen.
3	A high profile assassination attempt against Donald Trump will occur before the constitutional end of his first term. He will either be injured or killed, or shots will be fired in his general direction, or someone with any form of a weapon (including a knife) will be arrested within five kilometers of him or an event where he is scheduled to appear.	Worzelpete	2 December 2016	20 January 2021	Wrong. One did occur in 2024, though.
-1	The US will initiate conflict with Iran by 2021 Jan 20, probably on the basis of some suspect reason (WMD in Iraq, e.g.)	Onychoprion	April 07 2017	January 20 2021	The US did airstrike Qasem Soleimani in January 2020, but no military conflict followed
-1	Super-delegates and weird ways of allocating delegates will swing the outcome of one major party nomination in a different way than the aggregate of popular vote totals in the 2016 or 2020 cycle.	Avengerofthe BoN	30 August 2015	31 July 2020	Wrong
-3	Former Obama admin officials will be indicted.	RobSmith	26 June 2020	Hopefully before the election.	Wrong
-5	Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn will walk and Mueller prosecutors held in contempt.	RobSmith	2 October 2019	Sometime before final sentencing scheduled for December, 2019	Wrong, though Flynn received a pardon from Trump.
-6	The top three finishers in the New Hampshire primary will be Warren, Yang, and Buttigieg.	RobSmith	25 September 2019	2 February 2020	1/3. The top 3 was Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
14	The Democratic Party will fail to win a majority of seats in the US Senate in the 2020 elections.	DuceMoosolini	25 September 2019	3 November 2020	Strictly speaking correct, as both parties have 50/50. But Dems control the Senate with the help of a Democratic VP.
20	The RSA encryption algorithm will be broken before 2020. Most of the world go into panic mode because of lack of time and incentive to update encryption software before it's broken.	k61824	24 August 2013	1 January 2020	Wrong
-28	Trump's Russia controversy will doom his presidency.	Cosmikdebris	May 27 2017	January 01 2020	It's the rest of us who are doomed.
38	North Korea will either be forced to liberalize (China-style), or implode by the end of the decade.	Osaka Sun	16 January 2014	31 December 2019	Wrong
43	Assange will be found not guilty of rape.	Bob M	19 December 2010	(Should have been closed on 19 November, 2019 but was closed on 18 December 2022).	Moot: Sweden dropped the rape investigation in November 2019.
6	Theresa May will still somehow be the British Prime minister until Brexit day.	Dysklyver	January 17 2019	March 29 2019	Wrong
16	At least one Justice-Democrat-style progressive candidate will win a congressional seat typically thought of as "safe" for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections.	Onychoprion	May 05 2017	November 07 2018	Wrong
4	The Western sanctions on Russia (at least the sectoral ones) will be lifted before 2018.	Timothy R.	14 December 2015	31 December 2018	Wrong
54	The MarsOne "settlers" (if they ever launch) will not be the first people to reach Mars. (Possibilities for the actual first are many — NASA, Roscosmos, ESA, JAXA, CNSA, SpaceX, etc, or any combination of the above.)	ZooGuard	14 November 2013	11 Feburary 2019	MarsOne is bankrupt
72	The MarsOne "settlers" will never leave the ground. ("Never" defined as "as long as RW exists" or 2050, whichever comes sooner.)	ZooGuard	14 November 2013	1 January 2050(actually closed on 11 Feburary 2019)	MarsOne is bankrupt
41	In the next five years Bitcoin's value will drop to zero (or a few cents) and remain there indefinitely.	Marlow	16 January 2014	1 January 2019	Worth about 3000 dollars
28	There will be no direct military-to-military confrontation (military killing militia/civilians don't count) associated with land disputes for both Senkaku and Spratly Islands until end of 2018.	k61824	24 August 2013	31 December 2018	Right
-62	The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be peacefully resolved within the next 3 years.	142.124.55.236	30 August 2015	31 December 2018	Nope, still going.
27	The effects of the EmDrive will be conclusively shown to be a result of experimental error. (I hope I'm wrong.)	HomoHeisenbergensis	6 May 2015		Happened 3 years later.[3] Should have been closed May 2018 (was October 2024).
14	Marijuana will be legalised for medicinal form in the US nearly nationwide by 2018.	JRock1203	14 October 2014	1 January 2018	Wrong, closer though.
-53	NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden will die sometime before December 31st, 2018, under mysterious circumstances that suggest the US killed him. (For the record, I hope that I am wrong.)	Ochotonaprinceps	1 July 2013	31 December 2018	He yet lives.
8	If Betsy DeVos is confirmed, average SAT scores for the U.S. will go down.	DiamondDisc1	23 January 2017	January 2019	Wrong (the tests were redesigned with to be easier)
-3	Jeremy Corbyn will become the next Prime Minister of the UK after the 2020 Elections (or whenever the next General Election takes place).	Paravant	12 September 2015	2020	Wrong (Theresa May won 2017 General Election)
-15	The United States will not leave the Paris Agreement before the end of Trump's presidency.	112.26.232.79	June 8 2017	January 20 2021/2025	Wrong
-5	Keith Olbermann will return in some paid on air capacity for MSNBC before the end of 2016	Avengerofthe BoN	26 November 2015	31 December 2016	Wrong
43	NBC's prediction that all Americans will be implanted with RFID chips by, or during 2017, will not come true.	TemplarJLS	20 November 2014	31 December 2017	Right
32	ISIS as a unified political body will fracture and lose control of most of its territory by the end of 2017.	miekal	10 May, 2015	31 December 2017	Right
-14	Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "will suddenly cease being leader" of Iran within the next two years, which will be followed by a new leader more willing to negotiate with the West.	Paravant	7 October 2015	31 December 2017	Wrong
-4	Angela Merkel will not be reelected and Alternative für Deutschland will gain a plurality of seats.	Owlman	21 November 2016	24 September 2017	Wrong
2	In the 2014 NZ election the alternately libertarian/"tough-on-crime" ACT party will receive less than 2% of the party vote, but will win the seat of Epsom. In 2017 another general election will be held, and ACT will at least double its proportion of the party vote over 2014.	PeterL	24 July 2014	23 September 2017	Wrong
-13	North Korea will test another nuclear weapon before July 1, 2017.	Umichcynic	23 January 2017	1 July 2017	Wrong
-5	Marine Le Pen will become the President of France.	Owlman	21 November 2016	23 April or 7 May 2017	Wrong
8	Emmanuel Macron will win the second round of the 2017 French Elections	N7.Geth	15 February 2017	7 May 2017	Right
15	The UK will not invoke article 50 in 2016 or 2017.	Bob M	28 June 2016	29 March 2017	Wrong
103	Obama will not fulfill his promise to close Guantanamo Bay.	P-Foster	4 January 2011	20 January 2017	Right
-152	A third party (most likely Libertarian) president will get elected in one of this decade's elections.	ColbertFan	5 March 2011	8 November 2016	Wrong
-49	A Republican will win the electoral college in 2016 and become POTUS. The Tea Party movement will vanish within days of the inauguration.	TheLateGatsby	5 June 2013	8 November 2016/20 January 2017	Right
-58	There will be a high-profile assassination attempt on Obama before the end of his second term. Whether or not it fails, it will be followed by increased white supremacist violence.	EddieMonah	26 August 2013	20 January 2017	Wrong
-14	By nominating a judge who was recently confirmed by a majority of Republicans to a lower court, thereby forcing the GOP to avoid charges of hypocrisy and obstructionism, Obama will fill Scalia's SCOTUS position.	AgingHippie	14 February 2016	20 January 2017	Wrong
-12	Bill Shorten will be PM of Australia after Next Federal Election.	101.190.117.128	22 September 2015	2 July 2016	Wrong
65	Regardless of who the Democratic Party's candidate for the 2016 Presidential Election is, they will win both the electoral college and popular vote.	Psygremlin	28 October 2013	8 November 2016	Wrong
0	Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional referendum will fail.	Owlman	21 November 2016	4 December 2016	Right
24	The Democrats will retain control of the White House in 2016, but Congress will remain divided as is or be fully Republican (Senate at least 51-49).	Miekal	3 June 2014	9 Nov 2016	Wrong
-2	Fidel Castro will pass away in 2016.	Vulpius	14 August 2016	31 December 2016	Right
1	Donald Trump will lose at least four states which have long been considered safe-Republican and have not gone for a Democrat since 1976 or 1964.	NeverTrump!	9 October 2016	8 November 2016	Wrong
-20	Donald Trump will become the President of the US.	Owlman	22 May 2016	8 November 2016	Right
7	Hillary Clinton will not become President in 2016.	Serocco	22 June 2014	8 November 2016	Right
1	Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2016.	Prodigal	7 April 2013	8 November 2016	Wrong
11	The Democrats will retake the Senate in the 2016 election. Either with an outright majority or the aid of independents caucusing with them.	Avengerofthe BoN	27 August 2015	8 November 2016	Wrong
7	The GOP will retain control of the house in the 2016 elections.	Avengerofthe BoN	26 August 2015	8 November 2016	Right
8	Daniel Ortega Saavedra will run again in - and win - the 2016 Nicaraguan Presidential Election	Avengerofthe BoN	23 August 2015	2016	Right
-12	The GOP will go into its 2016 convention without a clear winner of the presidential nomination.	AgingHippie	25 August 2015	18 July 2016	Wrong
-14	Marco Rubio will be the Vice Presidential running mate for the Republican nominee in 2016.	Serocco	25 August 2015	21 July 2016	Wrong
6	Alan Grayson and Russ Feingold will be elected Senators in 2016.	Serocco	25 August 2015	8 November 2016	Wrong
-12	Hillary Clinton will not win the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2016 presidential election.	FuzzyCatPotato	18 March 2015	28 July 2016	Wrong
18	Elizabeth Warren will endorse the eventual winner of the Democratic nomination before endorsing any other candidate	Avengerofthe BoN	28 August 2015	28 July 2016	Right
-1	As long as she's healthy, Hilary Clinton will become president in 2016 and 2020. (Since 1960, the US has had 10 presidents, and 5 of them did 2 terms. The last 1 term president left office over 23 years ago and his dumber son won twice.)	Civic Cat	26 November 2015	3 November 2020 8 November 2016	Wrong, She lost the 2016 election and did not run in 2020.
16	The next President of the United States will be a woman.	Father Vivian O'Blivion	24 July 2014	8 November 2016	Wrong
2	The democratic nominee (unless it is Hillary Clinton) will win the Presidency. The GOP will retain control of the House but lose the Senate (this includes a 50/50 split with Democratic VP or independents caucusing with the Democrats). If Hillary is the nominee the rest still stands but the presidency is a tossup (not more than 51% of the popular vote for either candidate)	Avengerofthe BoN	21 August 2015	8 November 2016	Wrong
20	Joe Biden will not be a candidate for President in the 2016 elections. To clarify: he won't run for the democratic nomination. Nor will his nomination be the result of a deadlocked or "brokered" convention	Avengerofthe BoN	16 October 2015	26 July 2016	Right
-10	Bernie Sanders will defeat le Donald in the 2016 US presidential election and become president.	PacWalker	20 August 2015	26 July 2016	Wrong
6	The Conservative Party will hold its EU-exit referendum in 2017 (or latest by the end of 2018), but the UK will vote to stay in it	Miekal	7 May 2015	23 June 2016	Wrong
-2	Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President.	Paravant	20 August 2015	28 June 2016	Wrong
-4	The Democrats will hold a brokered convention and Hillary will emerge as the nominee unless she is indicted.	Owlman	23 April 2016	12 July 2016	Wrong
5	Mariano Rajoy Brey will not be Prime Minister of Spain after the 2015 elections	Avengerofthe BoN	22 August 2015	26 June 2016	Wrong
15	If the UK votes to remain in the EU, Nigel Farage will claim electoral fraud	139.222.251.164	20 June 2016	23 June 2016	Moot, UK voted leave
-20	The Kurds will achieve independence from Iraq before 2016.	Serocco	7 July 2014	14 June 2016(sorry for the delay)	Wrong
0	Trump will avoid a brokered convention and become the Republican nominee.	Owlman	23 April 2016	3 May 2016	Right
10	The Trump will not win the Republican nomination in 2016.	Avengerofthe BoN	17 September 2015	3 May 2016	Wrong
33	Jeb Bush will not win the Republican Party's nomination for the 2016 presidential election.	Serocco	18 March 2015	20 February 2016	Right
-50	Chris Christie will win the Republican nomination for President in 2016.	Wehpudicabok	26 September 2013	10 February 2016	Wrong
-36	Kim Jong Un will not be leader of North Korea by the end of 2015.	Miekal	6 October 2014	31 December 2015	Wrong
27	Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire primary.	Paravant	6 September 2015	9 February 2016	Right
-45	Ebola becomes pandemic before the end of 2015.	JRock1203	16 October 2014	31 December 2015	Wrong
-21	The mess in Ukraine will be more or less sorted out by end of 2015.	Arisboch	21 August 2015	31 December 2015	Wrong
6	A chemtrailer (or a group of them) will cause a security incident at an airport, leading to a delayed flight or diverted landing, by December 31, 2015.	Sophie Wilder	14 March 2013	31 December 2015	Wrong
8	El Salvador will surpass Honduras and become the country with the most homicides per 100 000 inhabitants for the year 2015.	Avengerofthe BoN	24 August 2015	31 December 2015	Right
39	By January 1, 2020, at least one genetically engineered animal will be approved for human consumption in the United States.	Tweenk	6 January 2013	19 Novemeber 2015	Right
-9	RationalWiki will experience a May 2011 level HCM by the middle of 2016.	miekal	10 January 2015	28 January 2016	Right
9	The missing Malaysian airliner will not be found in 2015	AgingHippie	28 March 2015	1 January 2016	Right
3	Leaked scripts or spoilers of Star Wars: The Force Awakens will hit the Internet before the movie's release.	Noir LeSable	6 November 2015	18 December 2015	Wrong
1	If the NDP does not win the 2015 elections, or fails to reach a coalition agreement, Thomas Mulcair will resign as Leader.	Serocco	19 October 2015	20 October 2015	Wrong
3	Should the Liberals win a minority government in Canada on Monday, Andrew Schlafly will make a comment on Conservapedia about liberals seizing power through undemocratic means.	AgingHippie	17 October 2015	20 October 2015	Wrong
3	The Liberals will win a minority government in Monday's Canadian election.	AgingHippie	17 October 2015	20 October 2015	Wrong
0	Justin Trudeau will replace Thomas Mulcair as the Leader of the Opposition after the 2015 Canadian general election.	Serocco	28 March 2015	20 October 2015	Wrong
8	The New Democratic Party will return to its third party status after the 2015 election.	Serocco	22 June 2014	20 October 2015	Right
-12	Stephen Harper will remain as Canadian Prime Minister after the 2015 election.	Serocco	10 June 2014	20 October 2015	Wrong
5	The budget deficit will increase more per year (in inflation-adjusted dollars) for the last two years of Obama's term (where Republicans control both Houses) than the six where they didn't.	Ikanreed	17 November 2014	19 October 2015	Wrong
-3	During the next year, ground troops of the United States Army or Marines will not engage in combat with ISIS to any significant degree.	Marlow	29 September 2014	28 September 2015	Right
1	Malcolm Turnbull will again be Liberal Party leader prior to the next Australian general election.	PeterL	1 July 2014	September 2015	Right
15	Tony Abbott will not win re-election as Prime Minister of Australia.	Serocco	26 June 2014	September 2015	Right
2	In the new elections in Greece Golden Dawn and/or other right wing extremist parties will make significant gains (more than five percentage points) - though I would wish the contrary to be true	Avengerofthe BoN	21 August 2015	20 September 2015	(Thankfully) Wrong
13	Despite international support, the Umbrella Revolution will fail to both achieve universal suffrage for Hong Kong and force C.Y. Leung to resign by 2016.	Noir LeSable	30 November 2014	15 December 2014	Right
-10	Mike Huckabee will be the first contender to drop out of the GOP race	Psygremlin	24 May 2015	11 September 2015	Wrong
6	Rick Perry will drop out of the presidential race within two months	Avengerofthe BoN	25 August 2015	11 September 2015	Right
-62	The 2016 nominees will be Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton. Between now and then, Rand Paul will successfully remake his image from the ground up and will run as far away from the Tea Party as he can get and run as a moderate Republican voice of reason and peace a la Mark Hatfield. Clinton's running mate will be Joe Manchin. The Clinton-Manchin ticket will attempt to run against Rand Paul from the right. They will fail.	Secret Squirrel	23 September 2013	8 November 2016	Wrong
-8	Rick Snyder will make a serious run at the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 as the disaster of the shutdown pokes the party to move to the center.	PowderSmokeAndLeather	7 October 2013	Sometime between 2013 and 2015	Wrong
0	Fast track legislation on Obama's trade deals will pass before the end of July 2015.	Serocco	June 11 2015	August 2 2015	Right
42	Bobby Jindal will run in the 2016 Republican primary.	Tyrannis	13 November 2012	June 24 2015	Right
4	President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will not receive the super-majority needed to change the constitution in the June 7th election.	Serocco	June 5 2015	June 7 2015	Right
8	No horse will win the Triple Crown in the next 5 years.	AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge	28 January 2014	6 June 2015	Wrong
18	The Lib Dems will be almost wiped out as a political force in the next UK election.	Bob M	19 December 2010	8 May 2015	Right
3	After the next UK general election, Ed Miliband will not become the Prime Minister.	Dalek	18 December 2010	8 May 2015	Right
17	Nick Clegg will not be the Deputy Prime Minister after the 2015 UK General Election.	Serocco	7 July 2014	8 May 2015	Right
5	The British Election in 2015 will end in a hung parliament, leading to either a minority government or another coalition.	Serocco	16 April 2015	8 May 2015	Wrong
-9	UKIP will take over as the 3rd main party in the UK following the 2015 general election.	Psygremlin	24 May 2014	8 May 2015	Wrong
-1	In the UK Election, Labour will form the government instead of the Conservatives but will not have enough for a majority and contrary to statements by its leadership will be open to a deal or coalition involving the SNP to get one.	Miekal	7 May 2015	8 May 2015	Wrong
3	Benjamin Netanyahu will not be the Prime Minister of Israel after the March 2015 elections.	Serocco	1 January 2015	18 March 2015	Wrong
2	Australia will win the 2015 Cricket World Cup. Without losing a match.	Psygremlin	1 February 2015	27 February 2015	Wrong
30	Contrary to the bullshit conspiracy theorists are throwing around, Americans will not be implanted with mandatory microchips by the end of 2014.	TemplarJLS	6 October 2014	1 January 2015	Right
39	Joseph Kony will not be caught by December 31, 2014.	Man of Perspective	11 April 2013	1 January 2015	Right
3	On the day Peter Shumlin ceases to be the governor of Vermont, the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant will still be operating.	Tweenk	28 March 2012	29 December 2014	Wrong
-70	Conservapedia will be taken down by Andrew Schlafly before the next Conservapedia Day (Nov. 21, 2014).	LArron	21 November 2013	21 November 2014	Wrong
1	The 2014 Oakland Raiders will join the 2008 Detroit Lions in the NFL 0-16 club.	AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge	30 October 2014	20 November 2014	Wrong
-4	Catalonia will hold some form of vote related to independence from Spain by the end of the year. A Yes vote will not result in independence.	Miekal	14 October 2014	9 November 2014	Right
-10	John Boehner will resign as Speaker of the House if he does not get a Republican majority in the Senate in 2014.	Serocco	7 July 2014	4 November 2014	Wrong
-4	Rick Scott will lose to Charlie Crist in the 2014 Florida election.	Serocco	3 July 2014	4 November 2014	Wrong
-6	The Republicans will get a majority in the United States Senate in 2014.	Serocco	3 June 2014	4 November 2014	Right
-8	The Democratic Party will retake the House of Representatives in 2014.	Osaka Sun	6 October 2013	4 November 2014	Wrong
20	Marijuana will be legalized in two or more additional US states (WA and CO don't count) before it is legalized anywhere in Canada. This could be a long bet.	Ochotonaprinceps	12 March 2013	4 November 2014	Right
-3	In the 2014 Senate elections, Democrats lose South Dakota (Johnson) and Arkansas (Pryor), while they (or an independent) pick up Maine (Collins) (note that this doesn't mean that they will only lose those seats and/or that they will only pick up those seats).	Mr. Anon	28 November 2012	4 November 2014	Wrong
-12	The San Francisco Giants will win the 2014 World Series.	AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge	28 January 2014	29 October 2014	Right
37	Rob Ford will not be re-elected as mayor of Toronto in 2014, either through the escalation of the video scandal or the entrance of a centre-right candidate(s) to intentionally fragment his support.	Osaka Sun	25 September 2013	27 October 2014	Right
5	Catalonia will manage to hold its independence referendum in November, but Spain will not recognize the result if it is a yes and either way none of the issues that led to this will be resolved.	Miekal	4 October 2014	14 October 2014	Wrong
10	When the SCOTUS rules on the Tenth Circuit same-sex marriage ban cases, it will rule in favor of gay rights.	63.224.252.18	30 June 2014	6 October 2014	Right
18	Scottish independence will not be achieved in 2014.	Serocco	3 June 2014	18 September 2014	Right
0	Russian military forces will not enter any part of Ukraine (aside from Crimea obviously) within the next year.	Marlow	22 March 2014	27 August 2014	Wrong
0	The wave of protests sweeping the Middle East and North Africa will inspire a popular uprising against the US-backed Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki, putting Obama in a real hard place.	P-Foster	26 February 2011	10 June 2014	Right (with caveat)
29	Before the end of 2014, at least four additional US states that, as of the time of this prediction, currently ban same-sex marriage, will have their state laws suspended by federal judges (as with Utah and Oklahoma, currently). Alabama will not be among these.	Ochotonaprinceps	15 January 2014	13 May 2014	Right
4	Russians in Crimea will decide to join the Russian Federation on 16 March, 2014.	Autumnus Linnus	15 March 2014	16 March 2014	Right
5	In 2013, there will be at least one serious, in-person, direct attempt by gun nuts on the life of a US political figure, mayor or above, with pro-gun control views. Furthermore, there will be "XYZ Shooting" Truthers posting within 24 hours on the Internet, coming up with conspiracies invoking false flag operations to further Obama's plans to take away all our guns.	Ochotonaprinceps	1 June 2013	1 January 2014	Wrong
-15	At some point before the end of 2013 a serious attempt by members of the community will be made to fork RW.	PeterL	16 November 2012	1 January 2014	Wrong
77	North Korea will not seriously invade the South at any point during the next three years.	Bob M	23 December 2010	1 January 2014	Right
12	Tim Tebow will not start another game as quarterback for the remainder of his NFL Career.	k61824	3 September 2013	30 December 2013	Right
6	Australia will regain the the Ashes in the upcoming series.	Psygremlin	31 October 2013	17 December 2013	Right
-10	It will be discovered that Joseph Kony has been dead since before the Kony 2012 video were made.	Revolverman	11 April 2013	20 November 2013	Wrong
2	September 2013 will overtake the place of July 2013 as the second month with the least number of edits on Conservapedia.	Bill Rawls	24 August 2013	14 November 2013	Right
3	Los Angeles Dodgers will not win the 2013 World Series, even if they become the NL Champions.	AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge	3 October 2013	18 October 2013	Right
-4	The Republicans will "win" the shutdown, eventually forcing the Democrats to compromise with them and defund Obamacare.	brxbrx	7 October 2013	16 October 2013	Wrong
5	The October 2013 U.S. federal shutdown will not fully end before the 20th of October. (Note that the U.S. will not have quite run out of money by then, even though the Treasury's so-called "extraordinary measures" will have ended.)	PeterL	3 October 2013	16 October 2013	Wrong
-3	The United States will hit its debt ceiling on the 17th of October, however, President Obama will order the Treasury to disregard the ceiling.	Man of Perspective	3 October 2013	16 October 2013	Wrong
23	Barack Obama will have to be present at one more mass shooting memorial before the end of his second term.	Osaka Sun	10 January 2013	23 September 2013	Right
1	The Los Angeles Dodgers will lose the NL West title by at least 5 games.	AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge	20 January 2013	20 September 2013	Wrong
1	Tony Abbott will win the next Australian election.	Man of Perspective	6 April 2013	7 September 2013	Right
8	Tim Tebow will not start a game at quarterback for the Patriots during the 2013-14 NFL season.	PowderSmokeAndLeather	1 July 2013	31 August 2013	Right
4	England will retain the Ashes in 2013.	Voxhumana	11 March 2013	25 August 2013	Right
-6	Full civil marriage rights will be extended to same-sex couples under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government.	Dalek	18 December 2010	17 July 2013	Right
-1	Zynga will be bought out by Facebook by June 2013.	AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge	5 November 2012	1 July 2013	Wrong
2	The United States Supreme Court will strike down DOMA and Prop 8.	PowderSmokeAndLeather	15 June 2013	26 June 2013	Right
6	Tim Tebow will never start a game for the New York Jets.	TheoryOfPractice	17 December 2012	29 April 2013	Right
-1	The next pope will be from South America.	PeterL	11 March 2013	13 March 2013	Right
0	No deal will be reached on the fiscal cliff by tomorrow (Dec. 31). The GOP effectively taxes the entire country, and history repeats itself.	Osaka Sun	30 December 2012	1 January 2013	Wrong
12	In 2012, the Supreme Court will rule on Perry v. Schwarzenegger Perry v. Brown, and find laws banning same-sex marriage unconstitutional.	Blue	5 January 2011	1 January 2013	Wrong
-21	All the Mayan bullshit slated for December 2012 will actually come to pass.	Edgerunner76	01 November 2012	22 December 2012	Wrong
11	Wisconsin-style union-busting and protests will occur in a number of other states as the looming state budget crisis becomes the number one issue.	Nebuchadnezzar	23 February 2011	11 December 2012	Right
-3	The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have at least a Tropical Storm Alpha.	Edgerunner76	1 November 2012	30 November 2012	Wrong
-6	The Atlanta Falcons will go undefeated in the regular season.	AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge	5 November 2012	11 November 2012	Wrong
12	The Democrats will maintain control of the Senate after the 2012 U.S. elections, even if it requires the VP's casting vote. (This includes any independents that caucus with the Dems, such as Bernie Sanders and possibly Angus King.)	rpeh	16 July 2012	6 November 2012	Right
4	In the 2012 U.S. elections, Obama will win a second term, the GOP will win a majority in the Senate, and while the outcome in the House is uncertain, it will be within fifteen seats of an even split between the two major caucuses.	AD	09 February 2012	6 November 2012	Wrong
56	Barack Obama will win the 2012 US Presidential Election.	SuspectedReplicant	23 December 2010	6 November 2012	Right
-4	Greece will leave the eurozone by mid-2012, placing the world into another recession.	Osaka Sun	12 May 2012	1 September 2012	Wrong
0	The Affordable Care Act will be struck down, along with the entirety of the law, kicking health care reform back another generation.	Mr. Anon	1 April 2012	28 June 2012	Wrong
-4	The Supreme Court will strike down the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act, but will not strike down the entire law, when it renders its decision in June 2012.	Blue	15 November 2011	28 June 2012	Wrong
14	The Republican primary for the 2012 US Presidential election will come down to Santorum and Romney; Romney will win this but will fail to defeat Obama, and will be attacked by the Religious Right while he's at it.	PeterL	16 January 2012	10 April 2012	Wrong
-26	Hillary Clinton will the Democratic VP nominee in 2012, replacing Joe Biden. It will be a poorly kept secret that the move is to set her up to run for President in 2016.	MDB	21 December 2010	3 April 2012	Wrong
-24	Rick Perry will be the Republican nominee for president in the 2012 election.	P-Foster	6 July 2011	19 January 2012	Wrong
34	The 2012 Republican nomination for President will go to a man. And in order to be a little bolder: Sarah Palin won't even run.	Röstigraben	19 December 2010	4 January 2012	Right
-34	The 2012 Republican nomination for President will go to a woman. (Edit: this doesn't have to be Sarah Palin!)	Blue	18 December 2010	4 January 2012	Wrong
7	At least two more autocracies will be overthrown (besides Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, of course), by year's end 2011. Bahrain, Yemen, Iran, or a wild card could be in the mix.	Blue	23 February 2011	1 January 2012	Wrong
6	Herman Cain might not get the nod to lead the GOP in the next election, but he will not pull out of the race because of allegations of sexual abuse.	B♭maj7	9 November 2011	3 December 2011	Wrong
-6	Citizendium will not continue beyond October 2011.	FreeThought	22 December 2010	1 November 2011	Wrong
-24	North Korea will invade South Korea in a full-scale 2011 summer offensive. Thousands die before North Korea finally withdraws back to its border.	FreeThought	19 December 2010	1 September 2011	Wrong
4	Some way, somehow, under whatever necessary pretext, the U.S.'s debt ceiling will be raised or sidestepped before the deadline on August 2.	ListenerX	12 July 2011	2 August 2011	Right
6	In regards to the case of RobSmith versus User:Conservative, Ken will emerge triumphant, and Rob will either: 1. leave in disgust or 2. get dressed down and have his rights removed by Andy for airing dirty laundry in public where an important contributor is concerned.	P-Foster	11 July 2011	31 July 2011	Right
12	RationalWiki will have a crisis of conscience/mission mid-2011, which will result in a major refactoring of the guidelines.	Human	5 January 2011	17 May 2011	Right
2	Labour will win the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election by more than 5% over the Lib Dems, with the Tories in a distant 3rd place.	SuspectedReplicant	12 January 2011	13 January 2011	Right
5	TK is not coming back to Conservapedia. (Speculation: Andy avoided a big ugly show by asking TK to let Andy change his password or blocked him from the site in some other way....)	P-Foster	5 January 2011	17 December 2010	Right (excluding speculation)