RationalWiki:Predictions

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The RationalWiki Predictions page is a simple tool to allow users to make long-term predictions, in the spirit of Longbets.org. Predictions should generally relate to the mission, or be generally relevant to politics, science, society, or economics. Once a prediction is settled, it will be archived as correct or incorrect.

Vote up (green) if you agree with the prediction, down (red) if you disagree, or meh (amber) if you're unsure/don't care.

When adding predictions, try to present statements in a way that makes them easy to judge as true or false when the excrement hits the rotating blades.

Current bets[edit]

Vote Proposed Bet Proposed by Date Expected End
upneutraldown
2
The United States will not leave the Paris Agreement before the end of Trump's presidency. 112.26.232.79 June 8 2017 January 20 2021/2025
upneutraldown
-5
Trump's Russia controversy will doom his presidency. Cosmikdebris May 27 2017 January 01 2020
upneutraldown
11
At least one Justice-Democrat-style progressive candidate will win a congressional seat typically thought of as "safe" for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections. Onychoprion May 05 2017 November 07 2018
upneutraldown
-1
The US will initiate conflict with Iran by 2021 Jan 20, probably on the basis of some suspect reason (WMD in Iraq, e.g.) Onychoprion April 07 2017 January 20 2021
upneutraldown
6
Scotland will be an independent nation by the end of 2025. RoninMacbeth March 30 2017 December 31 2025
upneutraldown
1
The USA will break up Yugoslavia-style within the next 150-200 years. N7.Geth 6 February 2017 6 February 2217
upneutraldown
6
If Betsy DeVos is confirmed, average SAT scores for the U.S. will go down. DiamondDisc1 23 January 2017 ???
upneutraldown
9
A high profile assassination attempt against Donald Trump will occur before the constitutional end of his first term. He will either be injured or killed, or shots will be fired in his general direction, or someone with any form of a weapon (including a knife) will be arrested within five kilometers of him or an event where he is scheduled to appear. Worzelpete 2 December 2016 20 January 2021
upneutraldown
-7
Donald Trump and his aides will conspire to gain almost unlimited powers and will make the US a de facto (if not de jure) dictatorship before his term expires. Gewgtweg 1 April 2017 20 January 2021
upneutraldown
-14
Ivanka Trump will rule over a significant portion of the North American continent sometime in the future. 141.134.75.236 12 December 2016 when the last Ivanka clone hits the dirt
upneutraldown
6
Donald Trump will either die or be impeached before the end of his first term as President of the United States. 139.222.251.164 12 December 2016 8 November 2020
upneutraldown
-8
Donald Trump will be reelected as President of the United States. Owlman 21 November 2016 8 November 2020
upneutraldown
-11
If Donald Trump is elected president, he will be the last president of the United States AgingHippie 11 February 2016 20 January 2021
upneutraldown
8
The Western sanctions on Russia (at least the sectoral ones) will be lifted before 2018. Timothy R. 14 December 2015 31 December 2018
upneutraldown
-1
Spain's refusal to deal with Catalonian independence like the UK (Letting them hold a binding referendum, debating it) did with Scotland or Canada with Quebec will result in Catalonian independence by 2022. Paravant 8 December 2015 31 December 2022
upneutraldown
-5
Keith Olbermann will return in some paid on air capacity for MSNBC before the end of 2016 Avengerofthe BoN 26 November 2015 31 December 2016
upneutraldown
25
If Trump wins the presidency in 2016, his success in dealing with Congress and the states will be about as effective as Rob Ford's success with Toronto City Council. It would be a one-term presidency with at least 35% of the popular vote in 2020. Civic Cat 26 November 2015 20 January 2021
upneutraldown
7
Canada will not have any type of proportional representation before 2020—either not at all, or at least not by 2020. Civic Cat 26 November 2015 2020
upneutraldown
14
Regardless of whether he wins, the popular support of Sanders policies will result in a notable shift in American politics to more openly left policies by 2030. Paravant 9 October 2015 31 December 2030
upneutraldown
-14
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "will suddenly cease being leader" of Iran within the next two years, which will be followed by a new leader more willing to negotiate with the West. Paravant 7 October 2015 31 December 2017
upneutraldown
19
The Islamic Republic of Iran will not recognize the state of Israel at any point within the next five years, or before a rapid non-scheduled change of government (coup/revolution/civil war/the likes), whichever comes first. Avengerofthe BoN 4 October 2015 31 December 2020
upneutraldown
16
The relations between Russia and the Western countries will gradually improve (or at least stabilize) during the next 3-5 years due to slow deescalation of the Ukrainian crisis and the necessity to fight global threats (like ISIS). Timothy R. 4 October 2015 31 December 2020
upneutraldown
-5
Jeremy Corbyn will become the next Prime Minister of the UK after the 2020 Elections (or whenever the next General Election takes place). Paravant 12 September 2015 2020
upneutraldown
-52
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be peacefully resolved within the next 3 years. 142.124.55.236 30 August 2015 31 December 2018
upneutraldown
1
Super-delegates and weird ways of allocating delegates will swing the outcome of one major party nomination in a different way than the aggregate of popular vote totals in the 2016 or 2020 cycle. Avengerofthe BoN 30 August 2015 31 July 2020
upneutraldown
2
The NFL will not have a team in Los Angeles by or before the season starting September 2020 Avengerofthe BoN 21 August 2015 September 2020
upneutraldown
32
ISIS as a unified political body will fracture and lose control of most of its territory by the end of 2017. miekal 10 May, 2015 31 December 2017
upneutraldown
10
The effects of the EmDrive will be conclusively shown to be a result of experimental error. (I hope I'm wrong.) HomoHeisenbergensis 6 May 2015
upneutraldown
21
There will be another Scottish independence vote within 15 years, which will either succeed or be closer than the September 2014 vote was. Miekal 23 November 2014 31 December 2030
upneutraldown
43
NBC's prediction that all Americans will be implanted with RFID chips by, or during 2017, will not come true. TemplarJLS 20 November 2014 31 December 2017
upneutraldown
9
The next British monarch will be Prince William, either through his father dying before Elizabeth II or through him not ascending to the throne for some other reason. Miekal 20 November 2014
upneutraldown
-12
A small ("small" meaning significantly smaller than France or Germany, but not micronation-small) nation in Western Europe will undergo a major political revolution in the next decade. 141.134.75.236 30 October 2014 1 January 2025
upneutraldown
15
Marijuana will be legalised for medicinal form in the US nearly nationwide by 2018. JRock1203 14 October 2014 1 January 2018
upneutraldown
38
In the next five years Bitcoin's value will drop to zero (or a few cents) and remain there indefinitely. Marlow 16 January 2014 1 January 2019
upneutraldown
38
North Korea will either be forced to liberalize (China-style), or implode by the end of the decade. Osaka Sun 16 January 2014 31 December 2019
upneutraldown
49
The MarsOne "settlers" (if they ever launch) will not be the first people to reach Mars. (Possibilities for the actual first are many — NASA, Roscosmos, ESA, JAXA, CNSA, SpaceX, etc, or any combination of the above.) ZooGuard 14 November 2013
upneutraldown
68
The MarsOne "settlers" will never leave the ground. ("Never" defined as "as long as RW exists" or 2050, whichever comes sooner.) ZooGuard 14 November 2013 1 January 2050
upneutraldown
-11
Qatar will not host the 2022 FIFA World Cup in any form, winter or summer. Man of Perspective 4 October 2013 2022
upneutraldown
18
The RSA encryption algorithm will be broken before 2020. Most of the world go into panic mode because of lack of time and incentive to update encryption software before it's broken. k61824 24 August 2013 1 January 2020
upneutraldown
23
There will be no direct military-to-military confrontation (military killing militia/civilians don't count) associated with land disputes for both Senkaku and Spratly Islands until end of 2018. k61824 24 August 2013 31 December 2018
upneutraldown
-49
NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden will die sometime before December 31st, 2018, under mysterious circumstances that suggest the US killed him. (For the record, I hope that I am wrong.) Ochotonaprinceps 1 July 2013 31 December 2018
upneutraldown
41
Kim Jong-un will remain in power until his death. Could be a really long bet. Seonookim 12 March 2013
upneutraldown
41
Assange will be found not guilty of rape. Bob M 19 December 2010

Results[edit]

(Prediction win to fail ratio - 64:85!)
(Vote win to fail ratio[1] - 94:55!)
Vote Proposed Bet Proposed by Date of Bet End of Bet Result
upneutraldown
-4
Angela Merkel will not be reelected and Alternative für Deutschland will gain a plurality of seats. Owlman 21 November 2016 24 September 2017 Wrong
upneutraldown
2
In the 2014 NZ election the alternately libertarian/"tough-on-crime" ACT party will receive less than 2% of the party vote, but will win the seat of Epsom. In 2017 another general election will be held, and ACT will at least double its proportion of the party vote over 2014. PeterL 24 July 2014 23 September 2017 Wrong
upneutraldown
1
North Korea will test another nuclear weapon before July 1, 2017. Umichcynic 23 January 2017 1 July 2017 Wrong[2]
upneutraldown
-5
Marine Le Pen will become the President of France. Owlman 21 November 2016 23 April or 7 May 2017[3] Wrong
upneutraldown
6
Emmanuel Macron will win the second round of the 2017 French Elections N7.Geth 15 February 2017 7 May 2017 Right
upneutraldown
15
The UK will not invoke article 50 in 2016 or 2017. Bob M 28 June 2016 29 March 2017 Wrong[4]
upneutraldown
103
Obama will not fulfill his promise to close Guantanamo Bay. P-Foster 4 January 2011 20 January 2017 Right
upneutraldown
-152
A third party (most likely Libertarian) president will get elected in one of this decade's elections. ColbertFan 5 March 2011 8 November 2016 Wrong
upneutraldown
-49
A Republican will win the electoral college in 2016 and become POTUS. The Tea Party movement will vanish within days of the inauguration. TheLateGatsby 5 June 2013 8 November 2016/20 January 2017 Right[5]
upneutraldown
-58
There will be a high-profile assassination attempt on Obama before the end of his second term. Whether or not it fails, it will be followed by increased white supremacist violence. EddieMonah 26 August 2013 20 January 2017 Wrong
upneutraldown
-14
By nominating a judge who was recently confirmed by a majority of Republicans to a lower court, thereby forcing the GOP to avoid charges of hypocrisy and obstructionism, Obama will fill Scalia's SCOTUS position. AgingHippie 14 February 2016 20 January 2017 Wrong
upneutraldown
-12
Bill Shorten will be PM of Australia after Next Federal Election. 101.190.117.128 22 September 2015 2 July 2016 Wrong
upneutraldown
65
Regardless of who the Democratic Party's candidate for the 2016 Presidential Election is, they will win both the electoral college and popular vote. Psygremlin 28 October 2013 8 November 2016 Wrong
0
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional referendum will fail. Owlman 21 November 2016 4 December 2016 Right
24
The Democrats will retain control of the White House in 2016, but Congress will remain divided as is or be fully Republican (Senate at least 51-49). Miekal 3 June 2014 9 Nov 2016 Wrong
-2
Fidel Castro will pass away in 2016. Vulpius 14 August 2016 31 December 2016 Right
1
Donald Trump will lose at least four states which have long been considered safe-Republican and have not gone for a Democrat since 1976 or 1964. NeverTrump! 9 October 2016 8 November 2016 Wrong[6]
-20
Donald Trump will become the President of the US. Owlman 22 May 2016 8 November 2016 Right
7
Hillary Clinton will not become President in 2016. Serocco 22 June 2014 8 November 2016 Right
1
Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2016. Prodigal 7 April 2013 8 November 2016 Wrong
11
The Democrats will retake the Senate in the 2016 election. Either with an outright majority or the aid of independents caucusing with them. Avengerofthe BoN 27 August 2015 8 November 2016 Wrong[7]
7
The GOP will retain control of the house in the 2016 elections. Avengerofthe BoN 26 August 2015 8 November 2016 Right
8
Daniel Ortega SaavedraWikipedia's W.svg will run again in - and win - the 2016 Nicaraguan Presidential Election Avengerofthe BoN 23 August 2015 2016 Right
-12
The GOP will go into its 2016 convention without a clear winner of the presidential nomination. AgingHippie 25 August 2015 18 July 2016 Wrong[8]
-14
Marco Rubio will be the Vice Presidential running mate for the Republican nominee in 2016. Serocco 25 August 2015 21 July 2016 Wrong[9]
6
Alan Grayson and Russ Feingold will be elected Senators in 2016. Serocco 25 August 2015 8 November 2016 Wrong[10]
-12
Hillary Clinton will not win the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2016 presidential election. FuzzyCatPotato 18 March 2015 28 July 2016 Wrong
18
Elizabeth Warren will endorse the eventual winner of the Democratic nomination before endorsing any other candidate Avengerofthe BoN 28 August 2015 28 July 2016 Right[11]
-1
As long as she's healthy, Hilary Clinton will become president in 2016 and 2020. (Since 1960, the US has had 10 presidents, and 5 of them did 2 terms. The last 1 term president left office over 23 years ago and his dumber son won twice.) Civic Cat 26 November 2015 3 November 2020 8 November 2016 Wrong[12]
16
The next President of the United States will be a woman. Father Vivian O'Blivion 24 July 2014 8 November 2016 Wrong
2
The democratic nominee (unless it is Hillary Clinton) will win the Presidency. The GOP will retain control of the House but lose the Senate (this includes a 50/50 split with Democratic VP or independents caucusing with the Democrats). If Hillary is the nominee the rest still stands but the presidency is a tossup (not more than 51% of the popular vote for either candidate) Avengerofthe BoN 21 August 2015 8 November 2016 Wrong[13]
20
Joe Biden will not be a candidate for President in the 2016 elections. To clarify: he won't run for the democratic nomination. Nor will his nomination be the result of a deadlocked or "brokered" convention Avengerofthe BoN 16 October 2015 26 July 2016 Right
-10
Bernie Sanders will defeat le Donald in the 2016 US presidential election and become president. PacWalker 20 August 2015 26 July 2016 Wrong[14]
6
The Conservative Party will hold its EU-exit referendum in 2017 (or latest by the end of 2018), but the UK will vote to stay in it Miekal 7 May 2015 23 June 2016 Wrong[15]
-2
Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President. Paravant 20 August 2015 28 June 2016 Wrong [16]
-4
The Democrats will hold a brokered convention and Hillary will emerge as the nominee unless she is indicted. Owlman 23 April 2016 12 July 2016 Wrong [17]
5
Mariano Rajoy BreyWikipedia's W.svg will not be Prime Minister of Spain after the 2015 elections Avengerofthe BoN 22 August 2015 26 June 2016 Wrong[18]
15
If the UK votes to remain in the EU, Nigel Farage will claim electoral fraud 139.222.251.164 20 June 2016 23 June 2016 Wrong[19]
-20
The Kurds will achieve independence from Iraq before 2016. Serocco 7 July 2014 14 June 2016(sorry for the delay) Wrong
0
Trump will avoid a brokered convention and become the Republican nominee. Owlman 23 April 2016 3 May 2016 Right
10
The Trump will not win the Republican nomination in 2016. Avengerofthe BoN 17 September 2015 3 May 2016 Wrong
33
Jeb Bush will not win the Republican Party's nomination for the 2016 presidential election. Serocco 18 March 2015 20 February 2016 Right
-50
Chris Christie will win the Republican nomination for President in 2016. Wehpudicabok 26 September 2013 10 February 2016 Wrong
-36
Kim Jong Un will not be leader of North Korea by the end of 2015. Miekal 6 October 2014 31 December 2015 Wrong
27
Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire primary. Paravant 6 September 2015 9 February 2016 Right
-45
Ebola becomes pandemic before the end of 2015. JRock1203 16 October 2014 31 December 2015 Wrong
-21
The mess in Ukraine will be more or less sorted out by end of 2015. Arisboch 21 August 2015 31 December 2015 Wrong
6
A chemtrailer (or a group of them) will cause a security incident at an airport, leading to a delayed flight or diverted landing, by December 31, 2015. Sophie Wilder 14 March 2013 31 December 2015 Wrong
upneutraldown
8
El Salvador will surpass Honduras and become the country with the most homicides per 100 000 inhabitants for the year 2015. Avengerofthe BoN 24 August 2015 31 December 2015 Right[20][21]
39
By January 1, 2020, at least one genetically engineered animal will be approved for human consumption in the United States. Tweenk 6 January 2013 19 Novemeber 2015 Right
-9
RationalWiki will experience a May 2011 level HCM by the middle of 2016. miekal 10 January 2015 28 January 2016 Right
9
The missing Malaysian airliner will not be found in 2015 AgingHippie 28 March 2015 1 January 2016 Right
3
Leaked scripts or spoilers of Star Wars: The Force Awakens will hit the Internet before the movie's release. Noir LeSable 6 November 2015 18 December 2015 Wrong
1
If the NDP does not win the 2015 elections, or fails to reach a coalition agreement, Thomas Mulcair will resign as Leader. Serocco 19 October 2015 20 October 2015 Wrong[22]
3
Should the Liberals win a minority government in Canada on Monday, Andrew Schlafly will make a comment on Conservapedia about liberals seizing power through undemocratic means. AgingHippie 17 October 2015 20 October 2015 Wrong[23]
3
The Liberals will win a minority government in Monday's Canadian election. AgingHippie 17 October 2015 20 October 2015 Wrong[24]
0
Justin Trudeau will replace Thomas Mulcair as the Leader of the Opposition after the 2015 Canadian general election. Serocco 28 March 2015 20 October 2015 Wrong[25]
8
The New Democratic Party will return to its third party status after the 2015 election. Serocco 22 June 2014 20 October 2015 Right[26]
-12
Stephen Harper will remain as Canadian Prime Minister after the 2015 election. Serocco 10 June 2014 20 October 2015 Wrong[27]
5
The budget deficit will increase more per year (in inflation-adjusted dollars) for the last two years of Obama's term (where Republicans control both Houses) than the six where they didn't. Ikanreed 17 November 2014 19 October 2015 Wrong[28]
-3
During the next year, ground troops of the United States Army or Marines will not engage in combat with ISIS to any significant degree. Marlow 29 September 2014 28 September 2015 Right[29]
1
Malcolm Turnbull will again be Liberal Party leader prior to the next Australian general election. PeterL 1 July 2014 September 2015 Right
15
Tony Abbott will not win re-election as Prime Minister of Australia. Serocco 26 June 2014 September 2015 Right
2
In the new elections in Greece Golden Dawn and/or other right wing extremist parties will make significant gains (more than five percentage points) - though I would wish the contrary to be true Avengerofthe BoN 21 August 2015 20 September 2015 (Thankfully) Wrong[30]
13
Despite international support, the Umbrella Revolution will fail to both achieve universal suffrage for Hong Kong and force C.Y. Leung to resign by 2016. Noir LeSable 30 November 2014 15 December 2014 Right
-10
Mike Huckabee will be the first contender to drop out of the GOP race Psygremlin 24 May 2015 11 September 2015 Wrong
6
Rick Perry will drop out of the presidential race within two months Avengerofthe BoN 25 August 2015 11 September 2015 Right[31][32]
-62
The 2016 nominees will be Rand Paul and Hillary Clinton. Between now and then, Rand Paul will successfully remake his image from the ground up and will run as far away from the Tea Party as he can get and run as a moderate Republican voice of reason and peace a la Mark Hatfield. Clinton's running mate will be Joe Manchin. The Clinton-Manchin ticket will attempt to run against Rand Paul from the right. They will fail. Secret Squirrel 23 September 2013 8 November 2016 Wrong
-8
Rick Snyder will make a serious run at the Republican presidential nomination in 2016 as the disaster of the shutdown pokes the party to move to the center. PowderSmokeAndLeather 7 October 2013 Sometime between 2013 and 2015 Wrong
0
Fast track legislation on Obama's trade deals will pass before the end of July 2015. Serocco June 11 2015 August 2 2015 Right
42
Bobby Jindal will run in the 2016 Republican primary. Tyrannis 13 November 2012 June 24 2015 Right
4
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will not receive the super-majority needed to change the constitution in the June 7th election. Serocco June 5 2015 June 7 2015 Right
8
No horse will win the Triple Crown in the next 5 years. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 28 January 2014 6 June 2015 Wrong[33]
18
The Lib Dems will be almost wiped out as a political force in the next UK election. Bob M 19 December 2010 8 May 2015 Right
3
After the next UK general election, Ed Miliband will not become the Prime Minister. Dalek 18 December 2010 8 May 2015 Right[34]
17
Nick Clegg will not be the Deputy Prime Minister after the 2015 UK General Election. Serocco 7 July 2014 8 May 2015 Right[35]
5
The British Election in 2015 will end in a hung parliament, leading to either a minority government or another coalition. Serocco 16 April 2015 8 May 2015 Wrong[36]
-9
UKIP will take over as the 3rd main party in the UK following the 2015 general election. Psygremlin 24 May 2014 8 May 2015 Wrong
-1
In the UK Election, Labour will form the government instead of the Conservatives but will not have enough for a majority and contrary to statements by its leadership will be open to a deal or coalition involving the SNP to get one. Miekal 7 May 2015 8 May 2015 Wrong
3
Benjamin Netanyahu will not be the Prime Minister of Israel after the March 2015 elections. Serocco 1 January 2015 18 March 2015 Wrong[37]
2
Australia will win the 2015 Cricket World Cup. Without losing a match. Psygremlin 1 February 2015 27 February 2015 Wrong[38]
30
Contrary to the bullshit conspiracy theorists are throwing around, Americans will not be implanted with mandatory microchips by the end of 2014. TemplarJLS 6 October 2014 1 January 2015 Right
39
Joseph Kony will not be caught by December 31, 2014. Man of Perspective 11 April 2013 1 January 2015 Right
3
On the day Peter Shumlin ceases to be the governor of Vermont, the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant will still be operating. Tweenk 28 March 2012 29 December 2014 Wrong[39]
-70
Conservapedia will be taken down by Andrew Schlafly before the next Conservapedia Day (Nov. 21, 2014). LArron 21 November 2013 21 November 2014 Wrong
1
The 2014 Oakland Raiders will join the 2008 Detroit Lions in the NFL 0-16 club. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 30 October 2014 20 November 2014 Wrong[40]
-4
Catalonia will hold some form of vote related to independence from Spain by the end of the year. A Yes vote will not result in independence. Miekal 14 October 2014 9 November 2014 Right[41]
-10
John Boehner will resign as Speaker of the House if he does not get a Republican majority in the Senate in 2014. Serocco 7 July 2014 4 November 2014 Wrong
-4
Rick Scott will lose to Charlie Crist in the 2014 Florida election. Serocco 3 July 2014 4 November 2014 Wrong
-6
The Republicans will get a majority in the United States Senate in 2014. Serocco 3 June 2014 4 November 2014 Right
-8
The Democratic Party will retake the House of Representatives in 2014. Osaka Sun 6 October 2013 4 November 2014 Wrong
20
Marijuana will be legalized in two or more additional US states (WA and CO don't count) before it is legalized anywhere in Canada. This could be a long bet. Ochotonaprinceps 12 March 2013 4 November 2014 Right[42]
-3
In the 2014 Senate elections, Democrats lose South Dakota (Johnson) and Arkansas (Pryor), while they (or an independent) pick up Maine (Collins) (note that this doesn't mean that they will only lose those seats and/or that they will only pick up those seats). Mr. Anon 28 November 2012 4 November 2014 Wrong[43]
-12
The San Francisco Giants will win the 2014 World Series. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 28 January 2014 29 October 2014 Right
37
Rob Ford will not be re-elected as mayor of Toronto in 2014, either through the escalation of the video scandal or the entrance of a centre-right candidate(s) to intentionally fragment his support. Osaka Sun 25 September 2013 27 October 2014 Right
5
Catalonia will manage to hold its independence referendum in November, but Spain will not recognize the result if it is a yes and either way none of the issues that led to this will be resolved. Miekal 4 October 2014 14 October 2014 Wrong[44]
10
When the SCOTUS rules on the Tenth Circuit same-sex marriage ban cases, it will rule in favor of gay rights. 63.224.252.18 30 June 2014 6 October 2014 Right[45]
18
Scottish independence will not be achieved in 2014. Serocco 3 June 2014 18 September 2014 Right
0
Russian military forces will not enter any part of Ukraine (aside from Crimea obviously) within the next year. Marlow 22 March 2014 27 August 2014 Wrong
0
The wave of protests sweeping the Middle East and North Africa will inspire a popular uprising against the US-backed Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki, putting Obama in a real hard place. P-Foster 26 February 2011 10 June 2014 Right (with caveat)[46]
29
Before the end of 2014, at least four additional US states that, as of the time of this prediction, currently ban same-sex marriage, will have their state laws suspended by federal judges (as with Utah and Oklahoma, currently). Alabama will not be among these. Ochotonaprinceps 15 January 2014 13 May 2014 Right[47]
4
Russians in Crimea will decide to join the Russian Federation on 16 March, 2014. Autumnus Linnus 15 March 2014 16 March 2014 Right
5
In 2013, there will be at least one serious, in-person, direct attempt by gun nuts on the life of a US political figure, mayor or above, with pro-gun control views. Furthermore, there will be "XYZ Shooting" Truthers posting within 24 hours on the Internet, coming up with conspiracies invoking false flag operations to further Obama's plans to take away all our guns. Ochotonaprinceps 1 June 2013 1 January 2014 Wrong
-15
At some point before the end of 2013 a serious attempt by members of the community will be made to fork RW. PeterL 16 November 2012 1 January 2014 Wrong
77
North Korea will not seriously invade the South at any point during the next three years. Bob M 23 December 2010 1 January 2014 Right[48]
12
Tim Tebow will not start another game as quarterback for the remainder of his NFL Career. k61824 3 September 2013 30 December 2013 Right[49]
6
Australia will regain the the Ashes in the upcoming series. Psygremlin 31 October 2013 17 December 2013 Right[50]
-10
It will be discovered that Joseph Kony has been dead since before the Kony 2012 video were made. Revolverman 11 April 2013 20 November 2013 Wrong[51]
2
September 2013 will overtake the place of July 2013 as the second month with the least number of edits on Conservapedia. Bill Rawls 24 August 2013 14 November 2013 Right[52]
3
Los Angeles Dodgers will not win the 2013 World Series, even if they become the NL Champions. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 3 October 2013 18 October 2013 Right
-4
The Republicans will "win" the shutdown, eventually forcing the Democrats to compromise with them and defund Obamacare. brxbrx 7 October 2013 16 October 2013 Wrong[53]
5
The October 2013 U.S. federal shutdown will not fully end before the 20th of October. (Note that the U.S. will not have quite run out of money by then, even though the Treasury's so-called "extraordinary measures" will have ended.) PeterL 3 October 2013 16 October 2013 Wrong[53]
-3
The United States will hit its debt ceiling on the 17th of October, however, President Obama will order the Treasury to disregard the ceiling. Man of Perspective 3 October 2013 16 October 2013 Wrong[53]
23
Barack Obama will have to be present at one more mass shooting memorial before the end of his second term. Osaka Sun 10 January 2013 23 September 2013 Right[54]
1
The Los Angeles Dodgers will lose the NL West title by at least 5 games. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 20 January 2013 20 September 2013 Wrong[55]
1
Tony Abbott will win the next Australian election. Man of Perspective 6 April 2013 7 September 2013 Right
8
Tim Tebow will not start a game at quarterback for the Patriots during the 2013-14 NFL season. PowderSmokeAndLeather 1 July 2013 31 August 2013 Right
4
England will retain the Ashes in 2013. Voxhumana 11 March 2013 25 August 2013 Right[56]
-6
Full civil marriage rights will be extended to same-sex couples under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government. Dalek 18 December 2010 17 July 2013 Right[57]
-1
Zynga will be bought out by Facebook by June 2013. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 5 November 2012 1 July 2013 Wrong
2
The United States Supreme Court will strike down DOMA and Prop 8. PowderSmokeAndLeather 15 June 2013 26 June 2013 Right
6
Tim Tebow will never start a game for the New York Jets. TheoryOfPractice 17 December 2012 29 April 2013 Right
-1
The next pope will be from South America. PeterL 11 March 2013 13 March 2013 Right[58]
0
No deal will be reached on the fiscal cliff by tomorrow (Dec. 31). The GOP effectively taxes the entire country, and history repeats itself. Osaka Sun 30 December 2012 1 January 2013 Wrong
12
In 2012, the Supreme Court will rule on Perry v. Schwarzenegger Perry v. Brown, and find laws banning same-sex marriage unconstitutional. Blue 5 January 2011 1 January 2013 Wrong[59]
-21
All the Mayan bullshit slated for December 2012 will actually come to pass. Edgerunner76 01 November 2012 22 December 2012 Wrong
11
Wisconsin-style union-busting and protests will occur in a number of other states as the looming state budget crisis becomes the number one issue. Nebuchadnezzar 23 February 2011 11 December 2012 Right[60]
-3
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have at least a Tropical Storm Alpha. Edgerunner76 1 November 2012 30 November 2012 Wrong
-6
The Atlanta Falcons will go undefeated in the regular season. AmazingTechnicolorCheeseWedge 5 November 2012 11 November 2012 Wrong[61]
12
The Democrats will maintain control of the Senate after the 2012 U.S. elections, even if it requires the VP's casting vote. (This includes any independents that caucus with the Dems, such as Bernie Sanders and possibly Angus King.) rpeh 16 July 2012 6 November 2012 Right
4
In the 2012 U.S. elections, Obama will win a second term, the GOP will win a majority in the Senate, and while the outcome in the House is uncertain, it will be within fifteen seats of an even split between the two major caucuses. AD 09 February 2012 6 November 2012 Wrong[62]
56
Barack Obama will win the 2012 US Presidential Election. SuspectedReplicant 23 December 2010 6 November 2012 Right
-4
Greece will leave the eurozone by mid-2012, placing the world into another recession. Osaka Sun 12 May 2012 1 September 2012 Wrong
0
The Affordable Care Act will be struck down, along with the entirety of the law, kicking health care reform back another generation. Mr. Anon 1 April 2012 28 June 2012 Wrong
-4
The Supreme Court will strike down the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act, but will not strike down the entire law, when it renders its decision in June 2012. Blue 15 November 2011 28 June 2012 Wrong
14
The Republican primary for the 2012 US Presidential election will come down to Santorum and Romney; Romney will win this but will fail to defeat Obama, and will be attacked by the Religious Right while he's at it. PeterL 16 January 2012 10 April 2012 Wrong[63]
-26
Hillary Clinton will the Democratic VP nominee in 2012, replacing Joe Biden. It will be a poorly kept secret that the move is to set her up to run for President in 2016. MDB 21 December 2010 3 April 2012 Wrong
-24
Rick Perry will be the Republican nominee for president in the 2012 election. P-Foster 6 July 2011 19 January 2012 Wrong[64]
34
The 2012 Republican nomination for President will go to a man. And in order to be a little bolder: Sarah Palin won't even run. Röstigraben 19 December 2010 4 January 2012 Right[64]
-34
The 2012 Republican nomination for President will go to a woman. (Edit: this doesn't have to be Sarah Palin!) Blue 18 December 2010 4 January 2012 Wrong[64]
7
At least two more autocracies will be overthrown (besides Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, of course), by year's end 2011. Bahrain, Yemen, Iran, or a wild card could be in the mix. Blue 23 February 2011 1 January 2012 Wrong[65]
6
Herman Cain might not get the nod to lead the GOP in the next election, but he will not pull out of the race because of allegations of sexual abuse. B♭maj7 9 November 2011 3 December 2011 Wrong
-6
Citizendium will not continue beyond October 2011. FreeThought 22 December 2010 1 November 2011 Wrong
-24
North Korea will invade South Korea in a full-scale 2011 summer offensive. Thousands die before North Korea finally withdraws back to its border. FreeThought 19 December 2010 1 September 2011 Wrong[66]
4
Some way, somehow, under whatever necessary pretext, the U.S.'s debt ceiling will be raised or sidestepped before the deadline on August 2. ListenerX 12 July 2011 2 August 2011 Right
6
In regards to the case of RobSmith versus User:Conservative, Ken will emerge triumphant, and Rob will either: 1. leave in disgust or 2. get dressed down and have his rights removed by Andy for airing dirty laundry in public where an important contributor is concerned. P-Foster 11 July 2011 31 July 2011 Right[67]
12
RationalWiki will have a crisis of conscience/mission mid-2011, which will result in a major refactoring of the guidelines. Human 5 January 2011 17 May 2011 Right[68]
2
Labour will win the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election by more than 5% over the Lib Dems, with the Tories in a distant 3rd place. SuspectedReplicant 12 January 2011 13 January 2011 Right[69]
5
TK is not coming back to Conservapedia. (Speculation: Andy avoided a big ugly show by asking TK to let Andy change his password or blocked him from the site in some other way....) P-Foster 5 January 2011 17 December 2010[70] Right (excluding speculation)[71]

Footnotes[edit]

  1. It is counted as a win if the total vote is at or above +1 for a right prediction or at or below -1 for a wrong prediction. (If neutral it is also counted as a fail.)
  2. See the Wikipedia article on List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea.
  3. If a run-off election occurs
  4. See the Wikipedia article on United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union.
  5. Donald Trump won the Electoral College on the Republican ticket
  6. Ironically, Trump flipped several safe-Democratic states.
  7. Nope, the GOP retained control of the Senate.
  8. Trump was the clear winner.
  9. Twas Mike Pence.
  10. Alan Grayson lost in the Democratic primary election while Russ Feingold lost the general election.
  11. She endorsed Clinton before the end of the primaries.
  12. She lost the 2016 election.
  13. Hillary Clinton lost but the GOP retained the Senate
  14. Hillary was the Democratic nominee
  15. they left
  16. he has endorsed Clinton
  17. arguably right as the convention will come down to superdelegates and was "brokered" in the sense that Sanders and Clinton reached a deal. Also, Clinton will emerge as the nominee.
  18. No party won enough votes to appoint a PM.
  19. UK voted leave
  20. El Salvador: World's new murder capital. USA Today. January 7, 2016.
  21. Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people). World Bank.
  22. Mulclair not resigining: "Tom Mulcair stays on as New Democrats suffer a crushing blow", CBCNews
  23. No direct statement from Schlafly, but Conservapedia blame seems to lie more fully on how the Conservaive Party of Canada had "largely abandoned socially conservative issues and pursued the dead-end of fiscal reform alone," and how "Millions of new, mostly young voters gave liberals their victory with a 39.5% popular vote in Canada, while the conservative vote remained stagnant."
  24. Liberals won a landslide majority: "Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015", Wikipedia
  25. Trudeau won: "Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015", Wikipedia
  26. NDP lost half of its seats and fell to third: "NDP reduced to third party status as support collapses", The Globe and Mail
  27. Trudeau won: "Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015", Wikipedia
  28. welp.
  29. Announcement to begin "direct action on ground" only occurred at the end of October [1]
  30. [2]
  31. http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/rick-perry-drops-out-2016-race
  32. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34227778
  33. in a year and a half it was won
  34. He resigned as party leader, after Tory's majority win
  35. He resigned as party leader, after Tory's majority win
  36. Tories won an outright majority
  37. Israel Elections: Netanyahu Victory Could Stall Peace Process, Analysts Say
  38. Lost to New Zealand in the preliminary round. But they did go on to win the Cup.
  39. Nukes are expensive, unfortunately.
  40. Derek Carr-led Raiders shock Chiefs to end losing streak at 16, ESPN
  41. Calatans chose overwhelmingly to separate from Spain in a 'symbolic' referendum.
  42. Alaska, Oregon and DC made it first.
  43. A Sister of Maine, losing? Nah.
  44. Catalonia backtracked on a snap independence vote.
  45. In a very interesting fashion.
  46. Depending on your definition of "popular uprising."
  47. Virginia (13 February), Texas (26 February), Michigan (21 March), Idaho (13 May), and more.
  48. They haven't. That we know of.
  49. Goodbye!
  50. Australia won the 3rd Test by 150 runs, to take an unbeatable 3-0 lead in the series.
  51. It appears Kony is seriously ill with something and is trying to guarantee his safety in surrender negotiations.
  52. October was worse than September.
  53. 53.0 53.1 53.2 Ceiling lifted hours before default. The Republicans did not achieve their original goals.
  54. Not even a year in.
  55. Won by 11
  56. Both men and women.
  57. Received royal assent, brought into force for both England and Wales in 2014.
  58. Pope Francis I was formerly the Archbishop of Buenos Aires.
  59. 2012 came and went without a ruling.
  60. Michigan.
  61. Graham, Saints hand Falcons first loss of season, NFL.com
  62. President right, both House and Senate wrong.
  63. Newt Gingrich stayed in longer, and Ron Paul stayed in until the end
  64. 64.0 64.1 64.2 Mitt "That hair!" Romney.
  65. A few dictators teetered, but no more fell.
  66. Summer came and went without a North Korean invasion.
  67. RobSmith goes toe-to-toe with Ken
  68. The New Wiki Order
  69. Constituency profile: Oldham East and Saddleworth, The Guardian
  70. No, really.
  71. TK's death